Posted on 06/16/2011 2:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:
A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.
Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.
The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.
The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.
One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.
And who might that be exactly?
MSM has published poll numbers on folks I have never heard of claiming they are potential candidates. Unless the R.R. incarnate has been living under a rock what you are looking for does not exist.
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The GOP has until around October of 2011 to attract a strong conservative
Maybe you have a definition of a strong conservative. If so, you would be the only one. Right now it’s self asserted.
Reagan polled poorly against Carter even in the Spring of 1980. The same themes were used against him.
As others have said, polls published now are meant to shape opinion. The way data are presented is quite skewed. 45% don’t want sarah in? Maybe that is composed of the 45% who prefer Mitt, Gingrich, Cain, T-Paw etc and so they do not want her, a political celebrity in for obvious reasons.
If Sarah Palin can beat Mitt, she can beat Barack Obama.
Let the debates and candidates positions be the primary determining factors not a private poll which has an agenda. I wonder what percent don’t want Mitt in? Why is there no question on that?
I want to see her in and win but will probably vote for Mitt if he runs, but he can get his money from the GOP elites as I will be paying more for gasoline and energy due to the fraud of AGW and the treason of both R’s and D’s forcing us to sit on oil and send money overseas for our energy. Sarah nails this like no one else. Cheap as possible, plentiful ENERGY is key to a strong economy.
Way too much money is greasing palms... romney is spreading around cash like peanut butter. Back to 1980... Reagan's polling numbers did not reflect reality during the primary and leading up to the election... and they certainly did not reflect it on election night.
Do you remember when peter jennings said, "Tonight the American electorate had a temper tantrum". He believed his network's polling too.
LLS
Perhaps...............or just a biased, maladroit poster, with lefty/faux conservative pundit talking points. The passive-aggressive fulminations are getting pretty “old” and senseless.
“Because I would bet my life that any Republican nominee with such toxic poll numbers absolutely GUARANTEES the reelection of Barack Hussein Obama and America simply cannot afford such a disaster. “
Bad bet... Remember that the ones feeding you this information DON’T want her to run because they know she would kick Obama’s ass.
” Cuddle with your charts and numbers, trembling in the dark, if you must, but trust me. Sarah Palin is going to surprise you. “ ===================
She has already surprised many, who are surprised she won’t commit, she won’t declare, she isn’t putting up a campaign, she isn’t going after any big money, she has no platform for a launch, no party support, certainly no media support. Instead she knows her polls are down so she has a new AZ house, a fabulous bus, taken a great coastal vacation, visited historic sites, kept her FOX contract, is cashing up her PAC, and marketing her celebrety. Sarah has earned a TV future and has every right to enjoy it.
Whatever floats your boat........ If you are happy that’s all that matters.
” If palin truly don’t have the support in the gop party, then she will lose the primary, so whats the big deal, let her run. “ =====================
That is what I say. You’re right. But, she won’t declare and some believe it is plenty high time for our guys to run early and run hard.
C'mon, Indy, cop on already! Sarah Palin doesn't have to run, she is being directed by the hand of God, and He will compel 100 million voters to go to the polls and write her name in, thus making her the next POTUS.
Is this simple concept that hard to comprehend?!
By the way, do you suppose *they* will ever recognize the difference between critique of *them* and critique of Mrs Palin? (For the record, I do not).
Easy. No and uh...no. LOL
” I am convinced that Rasmussen is deceptively skewing results to try and help the establishment. They are the same pollsters who claimed after the debate that Mitt Romney was still “#1”... “ ============
Rasmussen is picking up on the following:
It’s the eastern, moderate Republicans with buyers remorse who regret their vote for Obama and are now going Romney because he entered early and went to work under the radar in the populated states, whereas our picks are rookies, cashless, who are just beginning, and we have some wannabes are still on the side line grooming themselves like a Cheshire cat but won’t declare and go to work. This includes Perry as well as Palin. Time is not renewable. That’s why for the time being Romney is leading.
A very naive statement from someone with a very shallow grasp of politics.There must be something to report, or they would not be doing it.You're hardly an unbiased commentator here. Nice, how you so quickly side with anyone who expresses the slightest doubt about Palin.
Yea, Rather wouldn't have reported what he got his butt handed to him for if it wasn't true.
Rather still says it's true so it seems Psycho would have to side with Rather for his statement to mean anything.
The leftists believe it is not if an accusation is true or not, it's the severity of the charges they make up to stick on conservatives.
They have gotten more than one conservative run out of office with that Alynsky-lite tactic.
Most posters at FR are aware of things of that nature. But not those that are out to try to destroy Palin.
Clinton came into the White House almost a pauper, and didn't even own a house.
While IN office he became a multi-millionaire, and since leaving he has made untold millions from his adulation by the left, throwing money at him to speak etc.
Plus he probably got a good "stipend" from the Chinese that paid his way into office. Nobody checked his back pockets, when it was tried they instead looked at the salacious "rumors" of him having sex with someone his daughters age.
Obama never had a job, and was pretty poor when he came into office.
He's now a multi millionaire, and will get richer by the minute.
Psycho was called a concern troll earlier, but that is not true.
Unless being concerned with doing all he and others can do to destroy Palin counts.
LOL, she has had them running in circles!
If anything she had them roped and on their side bleating, way before the 8 second buzzer sounded.
Rasmussen is doing the dirty work for the Rep establishment. There is really nothing to see here.
There are no honest pollsters, and the science of political polling is long dead.
Rasmussen is a jerk just like the other pollsters, he has an agenda, I have been saying this for years
Run Sarah, Run....
This is just part of the plan to try and discourage Gov Palin from getting in the race, it`s exactly as I had predicted, did not take a rocket scientist to predict.
People wake up! This is all just part of the plan to stop sarah, to discourage her.
The LSM/Rep establishment support for Bachmann is all part and parcel with the phony polls.
Rasmussen is no Conservative.
Sarah Palin's poll numbers are downright toxic. SIXTY FIVE PERCENT OF ALL VOTERS STATE THAT THEY WILL DEFINITELY NOT --- REPEAT --- DEFINITELY NOT VOTE FOR SARAH PALIN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION.
If you and gallop can pull that wool over the eyes of voters, you got a winning plan!
Wow, and I see that ALL voters were polled. That is quite a feat.
You have quite a bit of information in your post, don't you think you should link to where you c/p'ed it from?
You do kinda make it look like it is your analysis.
Excellent and true post!!
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