Posted on 05/28/2011 7:31:31 PM PDT by randita
Few would place bets on whether Palin is running for president
By Niall Stanage - 05/28/11 04:48 PM ET
Sarah Palin has once again taken center stage and delighted her supporters with the announcement that she will begin a high-profile bus tour in Washington on Sunday.
The tour has an obvious — and presumably intentional — resemblance to a campaign jaunt. But many people on both sides of the political divide remain skeptical that she will run, or that she has a viable path to the Republican presidential nomination if she does so.
Then again, placing bets on Palin’s plans has always been a fast way to lose money.
Asked to give his “gut feeling” about whether Palin will enter the 2012 race, Republican strategist Dan Judy responded: “My gut feeling is that it is impossible to have a gut feeling about Sarah Palin. Since 2008, she has not done anything that a potential candidate would do. But then again: She’s Sarah Palin.”
(Judy, who added that “I don’t think she has a legitimate shot at the nomination”, is a vice-president at the Republican consulting firm Ayres, McHenry and Associates, which will work with former Gov. Jon Huntsman (Utah) if he enters the race.)
Palin’s fortunes seemed to have declined somewhat in recent months. Her favorability ratings — never quite as lustrous as her star power — had fallen even among Republicans. Her decision to release a video message in the wake of the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz) in which she implied she was the victim of a “blood libel” attracted widespread criticism.
More generally, the [replace 'widespread' with 'common'] assumption that she would not run in 2012 had left political professionals more inclined to chatter about other potential candidates, including Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn), who is often seen as boasting a somewhat Palin-like appeal.
Some circumstances, however, have worked to Palin’s advantage, particularly the decision of other high-profile figures to stay out of the race. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) and Gov. Haley Barbour (Miss.) could both conceivably have sought similar slices of the demographic pie.
Palin may decide that the stars have aligned for her with both those men out, Bachmann not yet in and, among the other likely or declared candidates, only former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) intimately connected to the social conservative movement.
“Nature abhors a vacuum and so does Sarah Palin,” said Republican strategist Mark McKinnon. “I’m not surprised that with Huckabee out and absent some other Tea Party favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, Palin is cranking up her machine.”
There is also the unusually slow-to-solidify nature of the 2012 contest to consider.
“The GOP field is relatively undefined and there is no clear frontrunner,” said Dr. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. “At best, Romney is a weak frontrunner. Palin has a strong base of support and would have to be considered a top-tier candidate from the get-go, with the ability to raise a ton of money and grab the free media attention that most candidates can only dream about.”
However, Sabato continued, Republican activists “want a winner against President Obama. Early trial heats can be deceptive in some ways, but Palin loses to Obama by the widest margin of just about any candidate. The risks of nominating Palin are very, very high.”
It is, of course, for precisely this reason that some Democrats dream fondly of Obama facing Palin across the presidential-debate stage. They look at Palin’s tendency to polarize, her high negative ratings and her tendency to make sometimes-confounding public remarks and they tend to share the sentiment that Obama strategist David Plouffe expressed last year: “Something tells me we won’t get that lucky”.
Nonetheless, Palin has never lacked either self-confidence or determination. She can also point to at least one example of her winning against the odds — the defining victory of her political career came when she defeated sitting Alaska governor Frank Murkowski in a Republican primary.
She could conceivably think that she would hoover up the vast majority of social conservative votes, thus transforming a multi-candidate contest into a de facto head-to-head battle with a more establishment figure, such as Romney.
In that scenario, though the Republican establishment would no doubt rally against her, Palin still might fancy her chances. Even if she were to lose, such a showing would be far from an embarrassment. And it would also ensure Palin’s continued political and cultural relevance, which might dim if she backed away from the race.
But even this kind of hypothetical scenario runs up against the central question to which almost no one knows the answer: What does Palin want?
She may indeed be on the brink of deciding that the presidential race is too enticing to pass up. But it seems just as likely that she has no intention of doing so, and is more interested in using the media attention she gets at moments like these to maintain her profile – and her celebrity.
“She is doing very well with her current business model,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “And that could be very hard to give up.”
His views find an echo in those of Democratic strategist Julian Mulvey.
“She has been doing such a fantastic job making herself a brand and making herself a lot of money,” he said. “I think she will continue the tease for as long as possible. But I think she has other priorities.”
Born February 11, 1964 in Sandpoint, ID (Meets the Jus Soli Requirement)
Parents were
Charles R Heath, born in ID
Sarah Sheeran, born in WI
Both parents were US Citizens at the time of her birth (Meets the Jus Sanguinis Requirement)
Sarah Palin is a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN unlike Barry Soetoro aka Barack Hussein Obama.
how dare she defend herself from blood libel.
Please! What a bunch of dolts and wishful thinking! As it was pointed out early, Palin would be hurting her so call brand if she was playing games by looking like she would run and and then all of a sudden jump out and say “no” I’m not”....people who supported her would just be angry, disappointed and just walk away. There has been nothing in her past that ever suggested that she was such a person
Sounds like this writer needs to take a class, Palin 101. He doesn’t have a clue to her motivations or goals. She is going to announce her candidacy when she wants to, not when they want her to.
She is not going to follow their script and she told them that. That includes hiring their over-priced firms to provide the wrong strategy for her. Her game plan is written and her path to victory is charted and don’t get in her way.
I don’t do what other people do just because they’re doing it anyway, and that includes placing bets on things I have zilch control over.
some Democrats dream fondly of Obama facing Palin across the presidential-debate stage.
I’m sure they do but it would be like having sex
with a praying Mantis, all fun til she bites
your head off.
Hahaha, they don’t even begin to understand what they
are in for.
Heh......browning out on her governorship doomed her political future right then. Not even skidmarks - straight over the cliff.
Exactly. Doing this bus tour, the movie, hiring experts etc, and then not running would turn Palinophiles off and she would be considered a fraud. She is running, no doubt about it now.
Do you think they will make a new rule to allow teleprompters?
>>Sounds like this writer needs to take a class, Palin 101. He doesn’t have a clue to her motivations or goals. She is going to announce her candidacy when she wants to, not when they want her to.<<
BINGO!!
Plus, if she announced now, the MSM will throw everything at her 24/7. Who would want that hassle? Better to go battle early next year when she’s done teasing these libtard pricks.
But some FReepers absolutely insist she isn’t running. Let’s hear from them now!
I think at this point that if she sees any viable path (and I think she does), then she'll run.
But we may know more after her bus tour. If the bus tour is a disaster, that portends one direction. If it's a smashing success, well...
“It is, of course, for precisely this reason that some Democrats dream fondly of Obama facing Palin across the presidential-debate stage. They look at Palin’s tendency to polarize, her high negative ratings and her tendency to make sometimes-confounding public remarks and they tend to share the sentiment that Obama strategist David Plouffe expressed last year: ‘Something tells me we won’t get that lucky’.”
Just a slight drift here. Has the demonic party establishment even hinted at attacking ANY other “so-called” GOP candidate? Even Rick Santorum, the most “hated Republican” in the senate?
No. They haven’t. Wonder why. Because they WANT Sarah to run???? I don’t think so.
They know who the RINOs are. We know who the RINOs are. They waste precious O2.
/johnny
From the article: “Asked to give his “gut feeling” about whether Palin will enter the 2012 race, Republican strategist Dan Judy responded: “My gut feeling is that it is impossible to have a gut feeling about Sarah Palin.
Now here is a Republican strategist willing to go out on a limb!
[She may indeed be on the brink of deciding that the presidential race is too enticing to pass up. But it seems just as likely that she has no intention of doing so, and is more interested in using the media attention she gets at moments like these to maintain her profile – and her celebrity. ]
Boy, they really hate her. The implication is that Palin is entirely 110% driven by celebrity and self interest. That’s another meme about to be broken.
I’ll Take “smashing success” for $1000 Alex!
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