Quick Thoughts on NY-26

RealClearPolitics ^ | May 25, 2011 | Sean Trende

[neverdem]

As of this writing, Democrat Kathy Hochul leads Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat-turned-"tea party" candidate Jack Davis with 47.1 percent of the vote to 42.5 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively. New York's 26th Congressional District leans Republican, and so the party spin machines are already in overdrive trying to explain meaning of the election.

Democrats (many of whom were adamant just six months ago that elections were about the economy and not policy positions) are claiming that this represents a massive upset victory in a district that John McCain won by six points, and that the race had become a referendum on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's budget. Republicans point to the odd nature of the three-way race, and argue that, absent Jack Davis, Corwin would have won.

This is already becoming one of those never-ending arguments, which neither side will win. Democrats can point out that, with Hochul at 47 percent, and polling suggesting that at least some of Davis' supporters were Democrats, she probably would have won even if he had not run. Republicans can respond that this analysis misses the fact that Davis forced Corwin to fight a two-front war, prompting her to go negative on Davis, while Hochul remained above the fray.

Aha, Democrats can respond, you miss the point. Even assuming that your counter-factual is correct (and it's really impossible to prove), this is like blaming a loss in a basketball game on a player who misses his free throws at the end. In truth, there are a ton of missed shots in a basketball game, any of which is technically the "losing shot." In Siena's polling, "Medicare" was the single most important issue, and Hochul overwhelmingly won these voters. Many were Republicans and independents; absent Paul Ryan's budget plan it seems unlikely these...

[cartervt2k]

Everyone’s going to have their own spin on it. It would have been more instructive if it was a 2-way race, but it was what it was.

However much mediscare moved the needle, we’ve now seen the Democrats’ 2012 playbook. We’re going to need a lot of money to fight the information war. Keep your wallets at the ready.

[saltus]

Corwin had plenty of money, and much more than Hochul. More money does not make a win. $68/vote is beyond absurd.

This was a VERY expensive loss. Corwin(R) herself spent about $2.6 million of her own money to get about 40,000 votes. That comes out to $68/vote. (By contrast, Meg Whitman spent about $144 million out of her own pocket to get about 4 million votes in last year’s governors race in California. That comes out to roughly $35/vote.) Hochul(D) was surely outspent.

Outside money: the main spenders for Corwin were $700K from Karl Rove’s American Crossroads, $100K from the American Action Network, and $425K from the NRCC (totaling about $1.2 million).

For Hochul, it wound up as $371K from the House Majority PAC, $111K from the Communications Workers of America, $75K from SEIU 1199, and $267K from the DCCC (totalling $824K). Hochul herself raised around $1 million.

Corwin(R) totals: $2.6 + 1.2 = $3.8 million-—and she lost.
Hochul(D) totals: $1 + 0.824 = 1.9 million-—and she won.

Back in April, when Corwin seemed like a viable conservative, I sent her $100.

Note to self: NEVER, ever send money to a candidate who spends $68/vote and loses!
(Corwin could have passed out $50 bills to voters and come out ahead.)

[Major Matt Mason]

First, Corwin is not a conservative, at least not across the board. She is pro-choice, and while the assumption is that she is a fiscal conservative (where have we heard that one before?), she didn't do a great job of bringing that point home. She wasn't as bad a candidate as Dede Scozzafava, but the party could have tapped someone more in tune with the district that she ran in. She has a lot of money, but so what? I voted for Corwin, but not happily. The one thing I get some joy out of is Rove picking a loser - I just wish it had been in some other district.

[OneLoyalAmerican]

Greetings Major Matt Mason:

Thank you for clearing up the pro-life question, for Corwin’s website was devoid of information. Why should anyone trust a politician that rationalizes infanticide as a “choice?”

Listened to Michael Medved Show today, Medved asserted Corwin was a “solid conservative.” Medved previously said the same about Senator Mark Kirk, yet as a Representative, Kirk’s voting record contradicts conservative values.

The NY GOP blaming this loss upon a “fake TEA Party” candidate reminds me of an addict blaming everyone else for their issues.

Question is: Has the NY GOP hit rock bottom yet?

Cheers,
OLA

[lasereye]

To run on Ryancare, the candidate has to be able to explain it very skillfully and be prepared to call Democrats on their lies. Most Republican candidates can’t do that.