Your political analyst skills are weak if you’re leaving people off that you don’t like, especially when they’re ahead of most of the people on your list.
These 5 can win the nomination - Palin, Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann
The others can’t. They just aren’t well known enough, and Republicans don’t vote for fresh faces.
Giuliani was in the NH poll, got a respectable 6%. He, too, could win. He probably wouldn’t, because his ideas are unpopular, but he’s well known enough.
I left people off the list that are not running.
Bachmann isn't running. Guliani (sp?) isn't running. Palin isn't running. If and when they get into the race, I'll talk about them, but right now they aren't running.
These 5 can win the nomination - Palin, Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann
Dude, you say I have poor analytical skills, and you include Ron Paul in a list of people that could win the GOP nomination?
Ron Paul can't win, because he isn't a conventional conservative on social issues and foreign policy, he's a conventional Libertarian.
Supports legalization of drugs (including heroin)
Supports gay marriage
Adovcates a return to a 1930s style isolationists foreign policy
Is a supporter of Code Pink (gave pass to Code Pinko that was screaming from the balcony during Palin convention speech).
Has publicly said America is to blame for 9/11 because of our Middle East policies and support of Israel
Paul's supporters delude themselves that these positions are "no big deal" and conservatives aren't really worried about them, but they are kryptonite to Ron Paul getting the GOP nomination.
Ron Paul will never come close to getting the GOP nomination as long as he holds these positions--NEVER.
I want some of what you're smoking. It must be good stuff.
“These 5 can win the nomination - Palin, Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann. [Or The others can’t...Republicans don’t vote for fresh faces.”
Ron Paul? Nowhere. Romney or Gingrich would need ticket splitters to squeak through. I admire Bachman, but she needs something to happen — a mistake by Cain. She needs to hope that Palin doesn’t enter. Her name is not as well known as you might think. Giuliani was soundly rejected in the past, largely because he doesn’t respect Life. He would have to squeak through with a ticket splitter even more desperately than Gingrich or Romney.
If Palin doesn’t run, the only reason Cain would lose is because of Herman Cain. This is his to lose unless she enters. It was the same as Howard Dean — his primary race was his to lose, and Dean blew it. But Cain strikes me as very self-disciplined. His main stumbling block would be the tax lobby network — like H&R Block, brilliant people who are too comfortable with exploiting the complex tax code. They will try to harm him in a big way.
The reason Cain is rising so rapidly is this:
The conservative movement is much more dynamic now as the information age grows in maturity. A primary cannot be predicted with a static mindset. For example, while some conservatives still stick to dead tree papers, they read columns from people who research online. Radio hosts are building up reputations and forging more influence. FoxNews is doing the same. The radio hosts and FoxNews — all study online intently. This makes primaries much less traditional than in the past.
A strong movement has been forged to block the Ruling Class. This movement is even larger than the Tea Party; it’s not even a formal thing, and it’s bipartizan. I don’t even know if anti-conservative crossover primary mischief is going to happen this year.
Including Paul in ‘can win’ and excluding Cain is denial at best and complete lunacy at worst.