“These 5 can win the nomination - Palin, Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann. [Or The others can’t...Republicans don’t vote for fresh faces.”
Ron Paul? Nowhere. Romney or Gingrich would need ticket splitters to squeak through. I admire Bachman, but she needs something to happen — a mistake by Cain. She needs to hope that Palin doesn’t enter. Her name is not as well known as you might think. Giuliani was soundly rejected in the past, largely because he doesn’t respect Life. He would have to squeak through with a ticket splitter even more desperately than Gingrich or Romney.
If Palin doesn’t run, the only reason Cain would lose is because of Herman Cain. This is his to lose unless she enters. It was the same as Howard Dean — his primary race was his to lose, and Dean blew it. But Cain strikes me as very self-disciplined. His main stumbling block would be the tax lobby network — like H&R Block, brilliant people who are too comfortable with exploiting the complex tax code. They will try to harm him in a big way.
The reason Cain is rising so rapidly is this:
The conservative movement is much more dynamic now as the information age grows in maturity. A primary cannot be predicted with a static mindset. For example, while some conservatives still stick to dead tree papers, they read columns from people who research online. Radio hosts are building up reputations and forging more influence. FoxNews is doing the same. The radio hosts and FoxNews — all study online intently. This makes primaries much less traditional than in the past.
A strong movement has been forged to block the Ruling Class. This movement is even larger than the Tea Party; it’s not even a formal thing, and it’s bipartizan. I don’t even know if anti-conservative crossover primary mischief is going to happen this year.
My argument is only that Cain isn’t well known enough to win.
And that Republicans only pick well known candidates.
If you want to mention all the unknown Republicans that get the Republican Nomination in the last 50 years, go ahead.
I’m saying Cain isn’t famous enough, that’s all.
The 5 I mentioned all have high name recognition. Bachmann has the lowest of the 5. Cain has name recognition half of Bachmann. He falls short, just not famous enough for 2012.