You are correct.
There are far more scenarios in which Romney walks off with the nomination than scenarios favoring any other candidate.
Yes...I figured out the other day though that if Cain is in as the only conservative (it would probably work for Bachmann too, Palin might have more trouble but could do it), he could win if someone splits off enough establishment votes from Romney, such as Pawlenty, Newt, or Daniels.
At this point I can’t see Romney winning. Not only is Romneycare a tar pit from which Romney has been unable to extracate himself, he doesn’t even seen to realizet that it IS a tar pit. An odd variant of the rule of holes - you won’t stop digging if you fail to realize you are in a hole.
Strongly disagree. Mitt can’t even get past the first three primaries/caucus with more than one win. Cain will crush him in SC, and the field is wide open now in IA. I haven’t seen a poll from NH, but it’s hard to believe they would still be enamored of him after his foolish health-care comments.