I personally think he has no chance.”
There really is no precedent for a Cain-like candidacy going the distance. You are quite correct.
On the other hand: what if some of these sort of fringe characters and non-political class candidates had not been freaks? Buchanan, Perot, Forbes...Trump...each of these guys is in their own unique way really freakish. Each of them has a major turn off factor.
The ONLY turnoff factor that Cain has is lack of government experience (elected, that is).
He doesn’t speak or look weird (contra Forbes). He doesn’t act weird (contra Perot). He doesn’t have extreme views, or, more accurately, he can articulate his conservative views in a more Reaganesque and winsome way (contra Buchanan).
Under no circumstances should he be compared to Alan Keyes. The ONLY thing these two have in common is that they are both black. Pfft.
There is NO precise parallel for Cain’s candidacy.
Can he take all of the good from these guys above, and mold it into one effective, winning campaign?
I don’t know.
More realistically, I doubt it.
But it is exciting for this moment to think about it...and hope for it.
You make some good points from history, but history needs to be put in perspective. Don’t ignore it, but don’t be a slave to it. Consider the things that have happened in the last 3 years that have never happened before:
Never in history have we had the tea party. Never have we had the social networking where someone can become well known over night.
We’ve seen a little known state house rep beat a popular incumbent governor so badly the governor left the party in a senate primary. We’ve seen an incumbent senator lose a primary. We’ve seen the most recent Presidential candidate nearly lose his senate primary.
We’ve seen a Republican take the Kennedy seat and a Republican beat a wealthy incumbent governor in NJ. And we’ve seen more anti government and anti-politician sentiment than maybe ever.
Cain is a total non starter in every election before 2012. But this is 2012. Will he become big time? I don’t know. But it is more possible than ever before.
I’m thinking Cain has a legitimate shot. He may well end up on top simply via being the last man standing, not to mention he’s just a great conservative and charismatic as all get out, despite his lack of political experience.
If Palin runs, he’ll have trouble getting on top, in fact both of them would, but, if she doesn’t, Cain may ultimately be the candidate Tea Partiers and evangelicals work together to put on top as the Romney/Pawlenty/Daniels voters split up each others votes.
It would have to be a perfect storm of sorts, but the clouds are building.
Right now, Cain is my guy. And it’s driving my lib friends crazy! They called me a racist when I tried to warn them about Ubama.
“He doesn’t act weird (contra Perot).”
When I think of Perot, I get this vision of the little guy storming around the Oval Office, Waving his tiny arms around above his head, and squeaking, “Veto! Veto! We can’t afford this! Veto!”