I’m thinking Cain has a legitimate shot. He may well end up on top simply via being the last man standing, not to mention he’s just a great conservative and charismatic as all get out, despite his lack of political experience.
If Palin runs, he’ll have trouble getting on top, in fact both of them would, but, if she doesn’t, Cain may ultimately be the candidate Tea Partiers and evangelicals work together to put on top as the Romney/Pawlenty/Daniels voters split up each others votes.
It would have to be a perfect storm of sorts, but the clouds are building.
He could pull it off if he had the endorsement of Palin and Huckabee, and did something unconventional - pre-announce his preferred running mate. I’d suggest Bachmann or, alternatively, Pawlenty. That would coalesce the so-con and Tea Party forces behind one candidate and give that individual the boost needed to take on the Romney and Gingrich machines. I don’t think he can shepherd the necessary resources if the conservative vote is split among himself, Santorum, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Palin. Conservatives need a champion or the GOP will simply follow its tradition of electing the individual who is considered “next in line” because of their performance in a previous primary or because of their name. Goldwater was the last unconventional GOP nominee. Since his defeat in 1964, the GOP has gone for the safe choice every time, with one exception - Reagan 1980. The safe choice failed against Clinton (Dole) and Obama (McCain), and will likely fail agaisnt Obama in 2012.