Remember the real Romney! No Votes for RINOs
Posted on 05/17/2011 6:21:56 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Now that two of the top three candidates for the Republican nomination have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left standing: Mitt Romney.
The polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out was — in my survey — Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6, Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2.
Now, Romney will inherit a large proportion of the votes left on the table by Huckabee’s and Trump’s withdrawal. My polling suggests that, based on the expressed second choices of the Huckabee and Trump voters, Romney will get 30% of Huckabee’s voters and 40% of Trump’s. These additions should lift him over 30% of the vote and give him a 2:1 lead over the nearest contender (Gingrich).
Romney was having a terrible week. His speech on health care was terrible. With Massachusetts up in arms over Romney-care and Republicans dead set against the individual and employer mandate, his failure to repudiate his program would have cost him dearly. But now he is sitting on top of the world.
Republicans are a legitimist group. Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive. He is seen as most likely to handle the economy successfully and most likely to defeat Obama. He new has the decided edge.
Gingrich, Bachmann, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the obvious other beneficiaries of the shifting cast of characters.
For Newt, the key is the debates that begin on June 7. (Tune into on to dickmorris.com for my play-by-play commentary — in writing — on the debate as it unfolds and for my video commentary on it as soon as it is over). If Newt can establish that his intellectual and rhetorical prowess can overcome his personal negatives, he could be on his way to a strong run at the nomination. But perhaps they won’t be enough. We’ll see.
For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run) and to lay claim to the evangelicals and Tea Party folks who would have backed Mike. Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people. They would be the base of a Bachmann candidacy and Michele needs to go out and claim them.
For Daniels, the withdrawal of Trump opens the way for him to become the main establishment business community rival to Romney. And Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the door for conservatives to support him as well. He needs also to announce soon to get into the fray.
For Pawlenty, the withdrawals may open the way into the race. With candidates as formidable as Trump and Huckabee sitting on their vote shares, there was little the former Minnesota Governor could do to get a word in edgewise. Now the way is open for him to get into the fray.
But the big, big winner is Romney. It is now a rebuttable presumption that Romney will likely be the nominee. And that’s huge.
Old RINO operative and Romney hand Mike Murphy was on ricochet.com’s podcast this week saying he could see Bachmann winning the Iowa caucuses, which would keep TPaw from getting traction.
I wonder if the talking up Bachmann and trying to hurry her in the race is largely a way of trying to keep Palin out.
If the GOP chooses Romney, he will lose.
Time for a red blooded conservative to grab the ball and run with it.
Hillary v Condi 2008
{crickets chirping}
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Watch your spelling ..it’s MORON!
You got that right! I look for evangelicals to move to Cain now that he has traction and even the ‘LameStreamMedia’ know of Cain’s popularity with the Tea Party.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk6PA48uR50&feature=related
You can bet the MSM has all of their exposés on the Mormon Church in the can, just waiting for Mitt to be the nominee.
You may or may not be aware of this, but there are OTHER elections that will be decided that day.
“Sitting home” is not the act of a serious adult.
That does not serve as an endorsement, nor do I believe Dick meant it to be one. But he also fails to address the more substantive, existential issues facing the Republicans.
Specifically, the GOP has a real problem, and it is not going away anytime soon: the Party leadership hates its own base, and the feeling is mutual. Conservatives are on the outside once again, looking in, just as they were from 1960 (I might even argue 1952) until 1980.
What they need - in addition to kicking out the principle-free party hacks - is a candidate who can attract members of both main Republican camps - Libertarian-leaning fiscal conservatives (white-collar, urban/suburban), and Evangelical social conservatives (blue-collar, rural/exurban) without alienating too many of either group while winning back some of the independent voters who flocked to Barack Obama in 2008.
It's a tall order, granted. But that's what is required to win, and among the announced candidates, Romney has ZERO chance of making it happen, because he manages to alienate members of both core GOP groups.
Let’s remember what the brilliant Dick Morris was saying in 2008: that McCain was the Republican’s only hope and that Romney was too conservative for the general electorate.
Yes, he was saying that. Brilliant, ain’t he?
wall street WANTS socialised medicine. they want obamacare for you , not them.
it takes the medical expense off the books.
Morris is 50/50 in his predictions at best.
No way he’s got this straight. Huck fans will never go to Romney, they’ll go to Palin, Bachman or Cain. Trump fans will never go to Romney - they want someone who will attack Obama in a direct frontal assault, and that’s not Romney - ever the nice guy, like McLame.
Morris is 50/50 in his predictions at best.
No way he’s got this straight. Huck fans will never go to Romney, they’ll go to Palin, Bachman or Cain. Trump fans will never go to Romney - they want someone who will attack Obama in a direct frontal assault, and that’s not Romney - ever the nice guy, like McLame.
You got it. Weirdllard is a strange bird.
no you’re not an anomoly, I’’m the same. dick morris is talking out of his a$$
The GOP wants Obamacare but just with a few tweaks for their Pals. Cain won the debate over Puhlenty and Sanitarium but is being ignored by the FOX RINO News.
////Morris is 50/50 in his predictions at best.
No way he’s got this straight. Huck fans will never go to Romney, they’ll go to Palin, Bachman or Cain.\\\\
Are you sure about that?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/05/17/romney_raises_103_million_in_single_day.html
..I’m really starting to dig Mr. Cain
That is why the primaries could produce very interesting results, with a “heck with Foxnews RINOS attitude. Watch.
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