Posted on 05/16/2011 5:24:20 AM PDT by SJackson
First the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood said it wouldn’t run a candidate for president and would only contest one-third of the parliamentary seats. Then, it said it wouldn’t run a presidential candidate and would contest 50 percent of the parliamentary seats. Even that is misleading, since it could arrange with other Islamist parties not to compete against each other, thus adding 5-10% more Islamists (a majority).
Now the Muslim Brotherhood says it will run a presidential candidate who might even conceivably win the election. Oh, but he will run as an independent.
One reason for this change is that earlier on, the Brotherhood was backing Muhammad ElBaradei. But since the two broke up over the referendum regarding the election timing and rules – ElBaradei thought the changes were too favorable to the Brotherhood, so they dropped him – they had no one to support. By the way, the Brotherhood won that referendum by a landslide.
Ah, but it’s okay because, according to Reuters, Abdel Moneim Abul Futuh, the Brotherhood’s candidate for president, is a leading “reformist member” of the Brotherhood’s Shura Council, its highest governing body. Right! He wants to “reform” Egypt into an Islamist state.
An Al-Ahram poll (it’s still early, of course, to know how people will vote) shows Amr Moussa and Abul Futuh are tied at 20% with ElBaradei at 12%.
Note that since a presidential election would come after a strong Brotherhood showing in the parliamentary election, a lot of voters would likely want to join the winning side. Also note that the Brotherhood candidate will have a strong organization behind him, while Moussa won’t even have a party, and ElBaradei’s forces should be pretty weak and concentrated largely in Cairo.
Then add into the mix that Abul Futuh will also be supported by non- Brotherhood Islamists while ElBaradei is running against three other “moderate democratic” types for that sector of the vote.
The bottom line is that for the first time this week, a Brotherhood takeover of Egypt in 2011 is really possible.
Up until now, I had thought that Moussa would be Egypt’s next president, with a strong Islamist presence in parliament but not a majority. But now Moussa himself predicts that the Brotherhood, with its allies, will have a majority. And even more recently, the possibility has arisen that a Brotherhood leader will be elected president.
So here are our alternatives:
Best-case scenario: A radical nationalist president, Moussa, and a strong Islamist contingent in parliament that will have a big influence in writing the new constitution. Moussa is anti-Israel and anti-American, but might be restrained by his pragmatic streak. On the other hand, the need to play demagogue – he won’t have any money with which to subsidize more food, provide additional jobs or keep the Islamists happy, or even outbid them – pushes him toward adventurism.
Worst-case scenario: A Brotherhood president and parliament transforming Egypt into an Islamist state, fully backing Hamas, subverting US influence and that of other Arab states, and potentially waging a full-scale war with Israel.
Remember that President Barack Obama said that having the Brotherhood in government is okay with him. So I guess he’ll just watch the results of his handiwork and cheer them on.
A taste of the future was provided by the massive anti-Israel demonstrations in Cairo on Friday. Supposedly the rally was to protest sectarian violence in Egypt, but it turned into one favoring more sectarian violence next door.
The Brotherhood has now escalated its demands to breaking diplomatic relations with Israel and expelling the Israeli ambassador. Remember all of those articles about how the revolution was good for Israel if only those silly Israelis woke up and understood reality as well as people in Washington and the Upper West Side of Manhattan?
Oh, and guess how the demonstration was largely organized. Ready? On Facebook! Those youthful, hip tweeting, moderate young people!
After people finally figured out in April-May what they should have known in January-February about Egypt, it might be better to learn the lesson now than to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
I believe folks on FR called this shot early on
I believe folks on FR called this shot early on
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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A lot of pundits are going to have egg on their faces over this. Best make sure they’re from a halal source.
This is all just mental buzz; distinctions without differences. All Arabist states in the Mideast undergoing leadership change go either mild or extreme radical, and their collective “vision” is to unite against Israel is a war of extermination.
Within one year, all these nations will have armed up and be poised on Israels’ frontiers ready, willing, and eager to attack. Iran and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia will buy off all the factions within the various radicalist movements with the understanding that they are committed to jihad against Israel.
Sometime near the US elections, Israel with be faced with the choice of its lifetime: To either await simul-attack from all directions, in a repeat of 1967 and 1973; or, to pre-emptively take out enemy forces with a stunning level of violence and decisiveness not previously seen. If these attacks are pre-emptive, there might be a decent chance for the avoidance of the use of nuclear weapons. If Israel waits until attacked, IMO nuke use become a near certainty. Damascus = gone.
American Jews, despite seeing the impending destruction of Israel, reduce their Dem/Rep voting percentage from 72% to 59%.
That’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it.
Whatever happens, US ME policy has made us out to be inveterate and blatant whores.
So NOW.… not only are we NOT liked, and NOT respected... we have NO CREDIBILITY!
Thanks “O”!!
Last chance to see scenic Aswan Dam...
There is nothing as heartbreaking as finding out that your first instincts, upsetting as they were, have proven to be 100% correct.
Yet the “professionals”, the “Elitists”, the diplomats, the media (!) all hailed the Egyptian revolution as the dawning of a new day.
The “NEW DAY” dawns with rain, snow, sleet, hail, flies, locusts and blood all in the near-term forecast.
Old saying, “My heart is heavy with worry”
Both Egypt and, soon thereafter, Libya were designed to be major jewels in the crown of the Obama Administration’s apocalyptic influence on the “democratization” of that part of the world, If either or both of those ‘enterprises’ goes sourly Radical Islam-bad, it is going to be very hard to conceal, and it may well be one more thing that sinks Obama.
I myself don’t disagree that Egypt and Libya could go radical or generically, more chaotic than they used to be.
But I don’t necessarily agree that such an outcome would hurt 0bama much. First, because 0bamas’ supporters hate the Jews (even the Jews who support 0bama) and so an enhanced pan-Arab enmity against Israel would be seen as an improvement. (Sick, I know, but that’s how I see it)
And second, I think it would actually enhance his image, because it would show what a courageous, historic, and gutsy individual we are lucky to have in charge when the world is in such turmoil. Only 0bama can stroke a 119-shot 18 rounder when things are so dicey.
“wouldn’t run a candidate for president and would only contest one-third of the parliamentary seats”
That’s correct. They’re going to install a president, not run one. They’re going to contest one-third, then the second third, then the third third. Oh, and by “contest” they mean full legal process thru the very best kangaroo courts.
I thought at the time the ‘revolt’ kicked off that democracy was never a possibility. It amazes me that the sophisticated fools who report and prognosticate fell for that. Arab Spring....LOL, more like Arab redux.
“So here are our alternatives:
Best-case scenario: A radical nationalist president, Moussa, and a strong Islamist contingent in parliament that will have a big influence in writing the new constitution. Moussa is anti-Israel and anti-American, but might be restrained by his pragmatic streak. On the other hand, the need to play demagogue – he won’t have any money with which to subsidize more food, provide additional jobs or keep the Islamists happy, or even outbid them – pushes him toward adventurism.
Worst-case scenario: A Brotherhood president and parliament transforming Egypt into an Islamist state, fully backing Hamas, subverting US influence and that of other Arab states, and potentially waging a full-scale war with Israel.
Remember that President Barack Obama said that having the Brotherhood in government is okay with him. So I guess he’ll just watch the results of his handiwork and cheer them on.”
Eze 29:8 Therefore thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I will bring a sword upon thee, and cut off man and beast out of thee.
Eze 29:9 And the land of Egypt shall be desolate and waste; and they shall know that I am the LORD: because he hath said, The river is mine, and I have made it.
Eze 29:10 Behold, therefore I am against thee, and against thy rivers, and I will make the land of Egypt utterly waste and desolate, from the tower of Syene even unto the border of Ethiopia.
Eze 29:11 No foot of man shall pass through it, nor foot of beast shall pass through it, neither shall it be inhabited forty years.
Both Ezekiel 29 and 30 mention the "tower of Syene", it's important to know that Syene is the ancient name for the region of Egypt known today as Aswan, if you search Syene in Wikipedia you will find the Wiki page for Aswan. The word translated "tower" here can mean any kind of structure really, but Ancient Egypt never built any major structure's in that area, it's the southern end of Egypt, to far from their main population centers. But today that is where the Aswan Dam is located.
In Ezekiel 29:9 God is very wroth with Egypt for Egypt has said "The river is mine, and I have made it. " How does a nation make a river? How does it so control a river so as to boast that the nation has made it their own? The only way is to dam it up thus changing it's volume, banks, etc. and this is what Egypt has done. Are making dam's bad? Of course not but pride is and being so proud as to war against God's people would provoke The Lord to draw a sword and smite them.
One very interesting scientific fact is that the Aswan Dam is so massive scientists when asked to consider it's destruction state no conventional bombs could damage it enough to cause a breach. For it to be completely destroyed, flooding Egypt with it's more than 11 trillion gallons of backed up water from Lake Nasser, it would take a nuclear bomb. All the water flooding Egypt would then be radioactive, and would certainly render Egypt uninhabitable for a long time. Scientists estimate that time to be 40 years.
The references to the "sword" in verse 8 makes clear this disaster is the result of war, not a natural disaster and tells us man and beast can not live in the area. This has never happened in the history of the world but with the current changes in the middle east and their collective desire to destroy Israel will it be far off?
Verse 11 tells us again that men can not pass through it nor can foot of beast for 40 years. Now what could cause animals to not be able to make it through a land that has been inhabited as long as recorded history for that long a period of time. Nuclear scientists say a bomb.
Eze 29:13 Yet thus saith the Lord GOD; At the end of forty years will I gather the Egyptians from the people whither they were scattered:
Eze 29:14 And I will bring again the captivity of Egypt, and will cause them to return into the land of Pathros, into the land of their habitation; and they shall be there a base kingdom.
This has never happened in the history of the world, so Scripture tells us Egypt must be destroyed, the people exiled 40 years and then they return, all before the tribulation.
It’s unfortunate. They get one shot a democracy. If they vote Islamic it could be their last.
But the army still has its core competencies, weapons, leaders and commanders. It will be years before the army crumbles. They are just layin low. The army are the same people who kept Mubarak in power and kept the islamists at bay.
Could get interesting, i suppose it depends at first on how many islamists are in the army. But over the medium term, money woes will be the Egyptian’s downfall. They lost their #1 source of income - tourism. It’s not like Egypt will suddenly become a mighty industrial power, or build textile industry, or even produce foods for export. There will be so few jobs and so little money it is a recipe for chaos to mix it with Islamism. Chaos requires order, order means army.
We shall see... Hopefully Israel won’t have too much trouble from this lot. Their problems won’t be resolved by conflict, though these folks have a history of using conflict to deflect their own shortcomings, they really cant afford a war. They used to have the soviet money. No more.
Now the Muslim Brotherhood says it will run a presidential candidate who might even conceivably win the election... will run as an independent... earlier on, the Brotherhood was backing Muhammad ElBaradei... ElBaradei thought the changes were too favorable to the Brotherhood, so they dropped him... the Brotherhood won that referendum by a landslide... according to [al-]Reuters, Abdel Moneim Abul Futuh, the Brotherhood's candidate... is a leading "reformist member" of the Brotherhood's Shura Council... wants to "reform" Egypt into an Islamist state... An Al-Ahram poll... shows Amr Moussa and Abul Futuh are tied at 20% with ElBaradei at 12%.
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