Obama got 365 electoral votes last time.
Chances of him re-winning the following states are remote at best: Florida (27), Ohio (20), N.Carolina (15), Va. (13), Indiana (11), Wisconsin (10).
That’s a total of 96 electoral votes which leaves Obama with 269 electoral votes - shy one vote of the presidency.
The east and west coast may give him the popular vote.
But presidents are elected in the Electoral College.
God thank the Founders for that.
I laugh at the way you (and many others here) are so dogmatic about Obama’s 2012 chances. So much can happen between now and then to change the political landscape. Nothing is certain this far out. All that needs to happen is we nominate some shallow clown, and Obama breezes to reelection.
CO will probably also flip back. Maybe NV and IA, too.
I think PA will be in play in 2012.
Your EV totals are from before the 2010 Census; Obama’s road to reelection is even more uphill than you estimated:
Obama’s 365 EVs in 2008 came from states that in 2012 will only have 359 EVs.
Obama won one EV from NE (he narrowly won the Omaha-based CD); no way he comes within 10% of winning it in 2012, so he’s down to 358.
IN and NC went very narrowly for Obama because he held his ground in normally GOP suburban areas; that won’t happen in 2012, so he’s down to 332.
FL and OH went for Obama by like 5% in 2008; they will go GOP by at least 5% in 2012, so he’s down to 287.
VA gave Obama 53% or so in 2008, but he’ll be lucky to get 47% in 2012, so he’s down to 274.
So all the GOP candidate needs to do to win is pick up one of NV, CO, NM or IA, all of which voted for President Bush in 2004, or one of WI, PA, MI or MN, which gave President Bush 48% or more in 2004, or the New England combo of NH + the ME-02 CD.
So while it isn’t impossible for Obama to win, the GOP is certainly sitting in the catbird seat for 2012.