Your EV totals are from before the 2010 Census; Obama’s road to reelection is even more uphill than you estimated:
Obama’s 365 EVs in 2008 came from states that in 2012 will only have 359 EVs.
Obama won one EV from NE (he narrowly won the Omaha-based CD); no way he comes within 10% of winning it in 2012, so he’s down to 358.
IN and NC went very narrowly for Obama because he held his ground in normally GOP suburban areas; that won’t happen in 2012, so he’s down to 332.
FL and OH went for Obama by like 5% in 2008; they will go GOP by at least 5% in 2012, so he’s down to 287.
VA gave Obama 53% or so in 2008, but he’ll be lucky to get 47% in 2012, so he’s down to 274.
So all the GOP candidate needs to do to win is pick up one of NV, CO, NM or IA, all of which voted for President Bush in 2004, or one of WI, PA, MI or MN, which gave President Bush 48% or more in 2004, or the New England combo of NH + the ME-02 CD.
So while it isn’t impossible for Obama to win, the GOP is certainly sitting in the catbird seat for 2012.
Have to ascertain where Obama voter remorse is the greatest. Which state has the greatest number of Independents who went for Obama, but have now seen the light? Which states have been hardest by Obanomics?
Of your choices, I would vote for the GOP taking one of NV, CO, NM or IA before the second group you mentioned.
The left in WI is very energized. That Prosser election shouldn't have even been close, let alone within the margin for a recount. PA has not been hit as hard economically as some other states and minorities will come out big for Obama. MI has been devastated, but they have a huge union influence and may credit Obama with saving GM. MN=Franken, they're hopeless, IMO. NH and ME 2 - maybe, but NH has been polluted by neighboring liberal states (VT, esp.) and is not as conservative as it once was.
NV has been decimated with plummeting real estate prices as well as high unemployment. Steve Wynn had an interesting exchange with Cavuto. Wynn was an Obama voter, but he's seen the devastation Obama has done to Las Vegas and has seen the light. Don't know much about the situation in CO (although taking back CO-3 and CO-4 may be a good omen), NM, and IA.
Interesting to speculate, but definitely looks doable for a good GOP candidate. We had a glimpse of voter unrest on Nov. 2, but don't yet know if it has gotten worse or will get worse.
Your math and the logic behind it look very sound to me.