I laugh at the way you (and many others here) are so dogmatic about Obama’s 2012 chances. So much can happen between now and then to change the political landscape. Nothing is certain this far out. All that needs to happen is we nominate some shallow clown, and Obama breezes to reelection.
Obama’s negatives are at least 50% now, even with biased Gallup polls and such. That is death for a politician who is a known quantity. Once he’s gone negative with a voter, they do not change their mind back again, so it can only get worse for the President.
2012 will mainly be a referendum on Obama’s first term. In spite of a number of uncomfortable blanks about Obama’s past, we gave him a chance for “hope and change” in 2008.
Now Obama is proving to be a cypher, a zero. I know that the Republicans can still figure out a way to lose this thing, but three of the four serious candidates that will appear (I don’t know who they are yet) will be able to win, and win fairly easily.