Employment jumps in March, jobless rate falls (8.8%)

http://finance.yahoo.com ^ | 04-01-11 | By Lucia Mutikani

[Thank You Rush]

So how did figures get released today? How were those compiled?

[PA Engineer]

So 400K filed for the first time but 500K others found jobs.

Even harder to believe.

Not when the BLS created 117,000 jobs with the bogus Birth / Death Adjustment.

The fraud is in the B/D number. They may honestly believe that this is how many new companies and jobs have been created by extrapolation. Then again it may be an outright lie. Either way, the job situation is still deteriorating and will get worse as hyperinflation kicks in.

The number to look at will be the "real" inflation adjusted federal quarterly tax receipts. How many people are actually working and meeting payroll.

[gwilhelm56]

The unemployment rate will continue to steadily DROP until it reaches Below 8% by NOV ‘12..

I don’t have to smell something cooking when the RAT is in the Corner!!

[kiryandil]

What’s going to happen though when gas prices go to 4.50 or 5.00 an hour along with continued food & energy inflation?

Unless the government comes up with a way to placate the FSA, there will be rioting.

[Bubba Ho-Tep]

There's always a certain amount of churn, even in times of high employment. Looking at numbers from 2004, with 5.6% unemployment, the monthly numbers on initial jobless claims are about the same (340K per week X four weeks)

[pinqy]

Ok, let's look at the data. In January, 2011, there were appox 1,726,000 new claims (UI weekly claims). From the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, we see that there were about 1,519,000 layoffs (Table B) Ok, that's close enough considering the slightly different time frames, lags of being laid off and filing, and just the margins of error.

Total separations was 3,555,000, but there were 3,712,000 hires, for a net change in January of 157,000.

This will NOT match up with the non-farm payroll survey changes. The JOLTS survey is for all hires/separations from the 1st to the last day of the month. The official jobs numbers are a snapshot of the number of people employed during the pay period that contains the 12th, and the monthly change is the net change between those pay periods.

[longtermmemmory]

I figured this number has been pretty much discredited since obama has been cooking the books.

[longtermmemmory]

is it GWBush low or Barak Obama low?

4% inflation is different per MSM if it a republican 4% or a democrat 4%.

[longtermmemmory]

there are employers who will not hire a person unless they already have a job.

This is to screen out deadweights, left-because-they-sued-the-employer, and host of other troublemaker issues.

This does hurt those whose companies folded or have just finished school.

[Red Badger]

It’s done by polling, not by actual figures from the BLS............

[Brown Deer]

0bama has been playing with the unemployment numbers. During 0bama’s administration, our population has grown by 6,324,000 and we have lost 3,460,000 jobs!

At the end of 2008, the labor force level was reported to be 154,669,000 or 50.7% of the population. Therefore, (154,669,000 - 143,324,000) / 154,669,000 = 7.3% unemployment.

To calculate the current unemployment rate in comparison, first get the current labor force, (0.507 X 311,122,000) = 157,878,000. Unemployment rate = (157,878,000 - 139,864,000) / 157,878,000 = 11.4% unemployment!

Dec 2008: 143,324,000 (population 304,798,000)
2009
Jan: 142,201,000
Feb: 141,687,000
Mar: 140,822,000
APr: 140,720,000
May: 140,292,000
Jun: 139,978,000
Jul: 139,794,000
Aug: 139,409,000
Sep: 138,791,000
Oct: 138,393,000
Nov: 138,590,000
Dec: 137,960,000 (population 307,439,000)
2010
Jan: 138,511,000
Feb: 138,698,000
Mar: 138,952,000
Apr: 139,382,000
May: 139,353,000
Jun: 139,092,000
Jul: 138,991,000
Aug: 139,267,000
Sep: 139,378,000
Oct: 139,084,000
Nov: 138,909,000
Dec: 139,206,000 (population 308,745,538)
2011
Jan: 139,323,000
Feb: 139,573,000
Mar: 139,864,000 (population 311,122,000)

sources:
http://data.bls.gov
http://www.census.gov

[Calif Conservative]

Do you understand that the jobless claims and the non-farm payroll numbers are from two different surveys?

Plus, it’s apples and oranges in a second way:

The jobless claims are a GROSS number. It’s a grand total.

The non-farm payroll number is a NET number.

IOW, the non-farm payroll number (+216K, -175K, whatever it might be) is the DIFFERENCE — THE NET CHANGE — between the total non-farm payroll jobs in the prior month and the total non-farm payroll jobs in the current month.

[Calif Conservative]

Thank You Rush wrote:
**** So how did figures get released today? How were those compiled? *****

Calif Conservative:

In (or approximately) the second week of each month, the BLS:

1. does its survey of households (for the monthly jobless rate)

2. does its survey of employer payrolls, from check stubs, (for the monthly non-farm payrolls #)

so for the March info that was released on 4-1-11 (one day after the end of March), the survey had actually been done about 3 weeks earlier, in the first week or two of March.