Posted on 03/10/2011 7:48:47 AM PST by Iron Munro
High-speed trains that Gov. Rick Scott rejected would carry more passengers and operate at a greater financial surplus than projected in a 2009 federal application, data the state released Wednesday showed.
Figures averaged from findings by two independent consulting firms showed more than 3.3 million people would have ridden the Tampa-Orlando line in its first full year of operation in 2016, compared with a projection of 2.4 million in a previous study.
The latest reports the Florida Department of Transportation commissioned at a cost of $1.3 million indicate a $10.24 million surplus from high-speed rail operations in 2016, with ticket revenue of $60.8 million, $12.3 million more than predicted before.
Those ridership and revenue figures do not include the so-called "captive market" between Orlando International Airport, the Orange County Convention Center and Disney World, which would add another 4 million riders and $56.3 million in ticket revenue to 2016 operations.
The results of the new reports, and the fact the U.S. DOT has not re-allocated to other states $2.4 billion in federal money Scott has rejected, could mean Florida high-speed rail is not dead yet.
U.S. Sen Bill Nelson said LaHood is examining how to reapportion Florida's allocation among other states, while also looking at whether a consortium of cities along the Florida route would qualify to apply for it and manage the project rather than the state.
"I still have a sliver of hope that common sense and the facts will prevail," Nelson said following Wednesday's release of the new ridership data.
Scott had once indicated he would wait for the data by Steer Davies Gleave and Wilbur Smith Associates before making his decision on whether to accept the federal funds.
The new data was intended to update previous "investment grade" studies to provide guidance for investors in private rail bond issues and others interested in becoming involved in the project, including the state.
The governor's office in an e-mail Wednesday said Scott was "verbally briefed" on the highlights of the FDOT ridership study before his Feb. 16 rejection of the project.
"The Governor has said all along he believes ridership projections for this and other rail projects are overestimated," the e-mail from Amy Graham stated.
Scott has relied on reports by the libertarian Reason Foundation, which said in January that Florida could face project overruns up to $3 billion, and a February paper by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation that concluded Obama's high-speed rail program would provide "mediocre passenger rail service to an extremely small fraction of travelers."
Critics challenged assumptions of both reports, which referred to historic appraisals of transportation projects in other countries, and noted that a Reason Foundation director who oversaw the report served on Scott's gubernatorial transition team.
On Tuesday, Scott told cheering Tea Party advocates at a Tallahassee rally: "Less government, lower taxes, no high speed rail."
Rail advocates said Scott is focusing on an anti-rail ideology rather than business and "fact-based" decisions.
U.S. Rep Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, said Wednesday that Scott "rushed to judgment" by rejecting the project.
"Now we see more evidence that shows just how profitable high-speed rail would have been."
The numbers from the new report aren't the only ones that support high-speed rail, Nelson said.
"With today's gas prices, a trip from Orlando to Tampa and back would use about 12 gallons of gas – and cost $47.88," he said. "A roundtrip train ticket would cost as low as $30."
Nelson said LaHood's decision on whether an agency representing Tampa, Lakeland, Orlando and Miami could take over the project is expected this week.
LaHood moved more quickly in December to redistribute $1.2 billion in federal money allocated to Wisconsin and Ohio, where newly-elected Republican governors had campaigned against high-speed rail.
Scott was reluctant during his gubernatorial campaign to support the Obama Administration's nationwide high-speed rail initiative that was to be launched in Florida and create up to 23,000 jobs, many in the construction industry where unemployment rates in Central Florida are near 20 percent.
After his election, Scott said he would consider the project after he reviewed the updated ridership and revenue figures and if the state did not have to invest the remaining $300 million to complete construction.
LaHood said Florida would not be liable for any cost shortfalls or overruns and private sector officials indicated they'd be willing to pitch in remaining construction funds.
What remains uncertain is whether LaHood will decide to force Florida to return $110 million in federal money it has spent on the project to date.
That route is already well serviced by buses, I wonder how many of them are full?
Now if they added a high speed line including one that took people from the Orlando circuit out to Cocoa Beach and dropped them off for the day they may see a big jump in riders.
Re: #1; It the same with Rat’s and vote recounts. Recount and recount until you get the result you want then stop. See the movie “Key Largo”.
Its like this, the poll asks something similar to, “would you like to ride a bullet train if this state had one?”
Very few mightl answer “no”, and therefore we have this crap reported as news.
There is a similar debate going on in the Cincy, OH area (I live close by) about streetcars for the downtown area. It is interesting to watch.
If these DOT individuals, this hack newspaper, this hack writer, Obama, etc., really believe this boondoggle could make money then they need to privately fund it themselves. They need to put their money where their mouth is or shut up.
Meanwhile, the Florida taxpayers shouldn't have this loser hung around their neck.
The Gov. is right. Here in Tampa, we have a trolley system that for the last 5 years, is costing residents millions a year.... It doesn't make any money... But the elites had to have it. There isn't a mass transit system in the U.S. that isn't running in the red.... Look at Amtrack.
I read this yesterday on another news source, and could only shake my head in disbelief.
Our new governor did the right thing by turning down the money.
Back when I was still reporting in North Carolina, I did a fair number of stories on various rail projects, mostly metro light rail. Absolute boondoggles, every one of them.
Now, I realize this is not exactly the same thing Gov. Scott is opposing.
But big intercity rail and urban light rail have one thing in common: Both are surely among the biggest money pits ever devised in the Leftward Land of Delusion.
With the HSR, everybody has to continue to "pay" for the unused seats...
Yup... in the real world, passenger rail needs on going subsidies. The consultants’ argument is self-serving. Let’s hope high speed rail never gets built in FL.
Good point. The pols would be getting campaign contributions for
bidders trying to buy, er, sway the pols.
Instead, they've come up with this scheme to get the taxpayer to fun
union dem contributions, not to mention providing jobs for their
ne'er-do-well offspring and in-laws.
Do the math. Even at $5 a gallon, its cheaper to drive to Orlando and back than its to sit in a train which will never really be high speed due to the number of stops it would be required to make. When you factor in the time savings going by car, high speed rail really can’t compete.
Liars figure, their figures lie!
I just watched a TV special on the railroad to Miami then to Key West. The entire thing was built by Flagler, using his own money (he was the brains behind John D Rockefeller and Standard Oil).
He created Maimi (they wanted to name the town Flagler but he insisted on using an Indian name.
If Florida really needs this high speed rail and it will make money, why don’t these Democratic politicians get Warren Buffet, Bill Gates or George Soros to invest their OWN money in the project?
At $4.00 a gallon and 23 mpg, costs about $15 to get there.
Compare that to the time to drive to the train station, park, get to the terminal, buy your $30 ticket, wait for your train. At 200mph, you get there in about 25 minutes. Then, go rent a car at $50 a day.
Bottom line is nobody will save time or money taking the train. Makes no economic sense whatsoever.
Rail advocates said Scott is focusing on an anti-rail ideology rather than business and “fact-based” decisions.
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What people *might* or *might not* do in the future are not “facts”, they are projections. They are based on predicting behavior, and, as such, they are probably wrong.
...Which is EXACTLY why Disney wants to build a high-speed train from the airport to their parks and couldn't care less about a route between Tampa and Orlando - even if it were to stop by Disney.
The dishonest reports leave out three things: inflation, cost overruns and route changes/upgrades. Bottom line is it will ALWAYS cost more than the initial projections. See the Big Dig. The taxpayers ARE going to be on the hook once they start building it and they will have shell out more after its starts running.
ALWAYS!
Then Disney should have no problem funding it.
If the rail advocates are right, they should invite a private consortium to build it. If its really going to be profitable, private investors will be willing to put up the money for it.
Why don’t they do it?
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