Posted on 02/23/2011 3:29:18 PM PST by SeekAndFind
That’s not quite what Gallup explicitly says in its analysis, but it’s a rather inevitable conclusion when one sees the graphic presentation of the results. Barack Obama lost eleven points in his approval ratings on a state-by-state basis in 2010, and now the floor has Obama in danger of losing the next election. Bear in mind when looking at the legend that the “average” approval rating for Obama was 47% — and that Obama had a 50% or better rating only in the dark-green states:
Obama’s overall average approval rating in 2010 was 47%, down 11 percentage points from the 58% he recorded in his first calendar year in office. For purposes of this state-by-state analysis, Obama’s average is calculated for the calendar year, and is therefore slightly different than the yearly average calculated beginning with his inauguration on January 20, 2009.
Broadly speaking, residents of 20 states gave Obama an approval rating within three percentage points of his national average (between 43.8% and 49.8%). Twelve states plus the District of Columbia had average approval ratings above that range, and in 18 states, approval fell below it.
The graphic is striking. Obama only gets majority approval for his performance on the West Coast and the Northeast — and not even all of those areas. He holds his home state of Illinois and his birth state of Hawaii, both unsurprisingly, but between the coasts there exists a vast land of either indifference or outright disapproval. Traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are wavering. The entire interior West has become outright hostile. More than half of the states have shown a double-digit decline in approval for Obama.
Presidents can win re-election with overall approval ratings below 50%, but that usually requires either a credible third-party challenge or an extraordinarily poor challenger. The economy would have to significantly improve to move these numbers in the direction where Obama can feel safe, and that seems unlikely to happen while Obama continues to press for regulatory adventurism.
Obama has a year at best to turn this around. He won the 2008 election at the peak of Bush fatigue by seven points nationwide. Continuing erosion in his standing puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a “big tent” of those discontented with Obama.
He needs 3, maybe 4 more states for a Dem victory.
California, New York and Illinois will total 104 EV in 2012.
The rest of the "above average approval" states in the graphic (WA, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, DCand MD) total up to 67 EV.
That still leaves Obama over 100 EV short of the the 270 majority. Where are they going to come from...???
-——(and the world knows it).-——
First, Iraq is essentially over except for the Iran containment occupation.
It is because of the perceived weakness that there will be the war
The question is whether he goes with a liberals-youth-minorities-women strategy (Colorado) or courts the White working class (Ohio).
The writer wants him to pursue the second strategy and thinks that only it can win.
Right now with the economy where it is, it doesn't look like Obama has much of a shot with the WWC.
The kids and yuppies who came out to vote for him last time aren't that enthusiastic either.
IMHO, nobama did us a hugh favor by trying to ram a bunch of radical ideas down our throats in rapid fashion. Now the damage he’s done is catching up with him and will overwhelm him before he can get reelected.
He would have been better off to just cool it a little, plan on taking eight years to get it done. Things would not be so bad off now and he’d be in much better shape.
South Carolina
Ping
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THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE.
if Palin wins the nomination I can see the RINOs running an independent. Huckabee would hurt Palin with the evangelicals. Romney would hurt Obama more as a less extreme liberal. So depends on who the elites decide to run.
Hey there slick, NH is in the “Below Average” column...this state is getting back to its Repub roots...the people I know who are moving here from Mass are people who are looking to live the NH way...
Haven’t looked through all the responses but anybody who thinks he’s rating average in Texas is crazy.
LLS,
I don’t doubt that one bit and as I look over that map I sense that he is hated pretty much across the whole country.
rotf
I find this whole thread irritating. I think that we should be talking about impeachment now! Biden’s electoral chances are no better than Obama’s. It is a much different situation that Clinton & Gore/ Gore would have ascended and would have been reelected in 2000. Biden, the party in power, would have no chance given the economic and geopolitical circumatances.
Obama is thumbing his nose at the constitution and the rule of law. If the Republicans had any balls they would impeach him. If he is acquitted in the Senate so be it. Who are we going to alienate? The blacks and hispanics? Would they ever vote Republican anyway?
Donald Trump, Mr. Third Party
“Does she poll well in those states? I thought she wasn’t well-liked in those”
It doesn’t matter if she’s well liked in those right now. It only matters that Obama is more disliked than her. And seeing the way that things are currently going, that is a definite possibility.
I read somewhere that there are more NY'ers and MASSholes living in NH than Granite State natives. That true, far as you can tell?
Re: the next presidential election
I fear we will have to convene a constitutional convention before the next election ... I doubt we can make it to Nov 2012
The person who almost destroyed Ford was that Jacques Nasser. He wanted to purge Ford of a lot of white male managers to insure the company was totally PC.
Good post! ;-)
I liked this line:
“$5 gas and the resulting economic plunge will have people yearning for the good old days of 2010 when unemployment was only 10%.”
LOL! The living will envy the dead. I tell you what 2002 to 2006 were like heaven compared to this current s**t.
Someone earlier in the post said he may ramp up inflation then turn it down. Inflation “don’t” work like that. Once the genie is out of the bottle it is hard to put it back in there.
I would agree, b/c I am a transplanted MassHole myself. However, I came here to live the New Hampshire way, not bring ANY MassHole ideas with me. Been coming to the state of NH since I was born, as my parents have a summer house in NH. I loved everything about this area then, and I still love it now.
“If Obama can decrease the unemployment numbers and show a modest improvement in the economy, and keep inflation relatively in check, he is a shoe-in.”
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It is shoo in, not shoe-in and he has two chances of doing all that, slim and none, Slim is marooned on an uncharted island somewhere. If he gets another term it certainly will not be because he accomplished those three goals. Every effort will be made to lie about all three but I think that it will be too much of a lie to sell. Only the terminally stupid believe official government figures any longer.
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