The biggest hurdle to producing a bullet-proof fake isn't the technical aspects, but the trail of people and things like the document numbering sequence.
People's names and signatures can be traced, checked, and verified. Even if dead, their life stories would have to precisely match what's reputed in the document in question.
If Hawaii numbered their long form birth certificates, they'd have to completely scrub the entire recorded existence of some unfortunate individual to steal their sequential number for Obama's birth certificate.
I seem to remember reading on one of the bc threads that Hawaii did number their long form birth certificates at the time of Obama's birth, but I'm not 100% sure.
And it doesn't stop at the birth certificate. There are many, many other documents that the birth and life of a person generates, and these would have to be opened for inspection, as well. Every single one of them would have to stand up to public scrutiny and verification. There couldn't be a single mis-match, or loose end. Everything would have to interlock seamlessly and flow naturally in perfect progression, to convince a skeptical nation.
I don't believe that Obama & Co. are capable of pulling this off.