Posted on 01/07/2011 10:17:46 AM PST by speciallybland
Barack Obama would easily take Nevada if he had to stand for reelection today...unless the Republicans nominated Mitt Romney. Obama has early double digit advantages against Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Sarah Palin in the state but has just a single point edge over Romney.
Nevada is one of the few swing states we've polled in the last couple months where more voters approve (50%) than disapprove (46%) of Obama. Like everywhere else in the country Democrats are largely happy with him and Republicans are most unhappy- what sets apart his numbers in Nevada is his popularity with independents, 55% of whom approve of him with 41% disapproving.
Independents in the state may like Obama but they like Romney even more, giving him a 58/28 favorability rating. That's quite a contrast to how they feel about other the leading Republican contenders in the state. Huckabee's favorability with them is 38/50, Palin's is 28/61, and Gingrich actually occupies the basement in this state at 26/65.
Obama's lead over Romney is 47/46. That goes up to 10 points over Huckabee at 50/40, 11 over Gingrich at 51/40, and 13 over Palin at 52/39. Independents explain most of the difference between how Romney does compared to the rest of the Republicans here as well. Obama dominates most of the Republican field with them- a 22 point lead over Palin, a 23 point one over Huckabee, and a 27 point one over Gingrich. But Romney actually has an 11 point lead over Obama with them and that's the reason he's running neck and neck overall.
Of the battleground states where we've polled 2012 so far, Nevada has the biggest disparity in the GOP's chances of winning depending on who their nominee is. The only other state where there was greater than a 5 point difference between how one Republican did and the rest of them was Michigan, where Romney came to within 4 points of Obama with Huckabee the next closest at 12 points.
Given the direction the state is headed in, it may be a long time before a Republican wins Nevada in a race that's competitive nationally- it may go red only in instances where it's a GOP landslide across the country. The Senate race this year showed that Republicans have to be very careful about who they nominate if they want to win in Nevada and recent history doesn't suggest that's something they're particularly inclined to do.
"An' don' throw us in dat ol' briar patch either!! that would be awful
Feingold still “looking good” in 2010 for WI, Tom?...
As we witnessed in November, never underestimate the stupidity of the voters of Nevada.
More noise from the left trying to convince us to support that “turd in the punchbowl”
More noise from the left trying to convince us to support that “turd in the punchbowl”
There is something very wrong with this ‘poll’.
Northern Nevada is very different from Southern Nevada, where Dirty Harry holds all the cards- along with thousands of illegals who vote.
I surely do not believe that these polls are being taken in N Nevada.
Sarah Palin drew more attendees at all of her appearances in Carson City & Reno than any other candidate during the 2008 cycle. She is very popular here.
I call a twisted poll- looking for a result rather than a true reading of the public attitude.
I’m certainly not pro-Mormon.
And maybe I need a tin-foil hat... But I am starting to wonder if the left is deliberately creating mayhem at FR by posting articles/opinions about Mormons knowing that it will create divisiveness amongst conservative FRiends.
LMAO! Yeah right... Obviously we know who the writer prefers in the next election.
Every time you see an article like this, ask yourself—who does the media want the GOP’s candidate to be?
As we witnessed in November, never underestimate the fraud with voting in Clark County.
Nevada is still heavily Mormon. It used to be the same territory as Utah—Deseret.
While it would be nice if the GOP won Nevada, there are many scenarios where we can get to 270 with out Nevadas 6 EV’s.
The only "diviseness" is the polling that somehow shows Romney in the top tier. If Romney were to win the GOP Nomination, I sure bet that a LOT of Conservatives would either stay home on voting day or vote for another Candidate. I know I would.
PPP poling never seems to have their finger on the pulse of the Nation in their Early polls. They’re way off base until the elections are close to happening, and then they correct themselves.
Either that, or a lot of people change their mind at the last minute.
PPP goes against the Trends of the moment (IMO), and I suspect their an extension of the MSM, who is probably paying for their polls along with the DNC and company.
Nine percent Mormon.
BINGO!
We’re already being accused of being a Moron hate site.
Verrrry suspicious.
LLS
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