Posted on 01/07/2011 9:36:58 AM PST by SeekAndFind
It will be more than a year before New Hampshire voters trudge to the polls for the first primary in the nation, but the New Hampshire Journal feels it’s just the right time to take the Granite State temperature on the Republican field. As expected, Mitt Romney from neighboring Massachusetts takes the early lead in the poll, but perhaps the extent of that lead will provide a mild surprise. Romney leads Sarah Palin by 23 points, and Mike Huckabee is the only other candidate in double digits:
Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire in the early stages of the race for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, according to a new survey commissioned by NH Journal and conducted by Magellan Strategies. The survey is the first statewide survey of Granite State Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in 2011.
Romney leads former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin by 23 points, with Romney earning 39% and Palin earning 16%. Mike Huckabee (10%), Newt Gingrich (8%), Texas Congressman Ron Paul (7%), former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (4%), Rick Santorum (3%) and MS Gov. Haley Barbour (1%) all trail significantly behind. Romney finished second to Sen. john McCain in the 2008 New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary.
Palin, however, has a strong base of popularity in New Hampshire, which indicates that she has room to grow if she chooses to run:
Despite her ballot position, Palin is very popular with Republican voters. 59% view her favorably while 31% have an unfavorable view of her. More Independents (50%) have a favorable view of her than and unfavorable view (41%). This data reflects Independent voters who say they are likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary.
Two-thirds of the respondents in this poll are independents, who can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary (but not in both). All of the independent respondents in this poll stated that they will vote in the GOP primary, which makes sense, as Barack Obama will likely not face a serious primary challenger in 2012. That means the action will be with the Republicans, and the importance of the independent vote will increase accordingly.
Will that water down conservative impact on the choice in New Hampshire? In NHJ’s model, at least, the answer appears to be no. Eighty-one percent of all respondents described themselves as “conservative,” and 54% as “very conservative.” Sixty percent described themselves as conservatives on social issues “such as same sex marriage and abortion,” and 46% as “very conservative.”
Again, this is very early, but New Hampshire will get a lot of attention in the next year. Romney was expected to win in NH in 2008 but ended up losing to John McCain, and the nomination slipped away from him. Palin has yet to publicly state her interest in the race, but if she does decide to run this year, we’ll know it when Palin starts spending time in the Granite State. Mike Huckabee’s positives in the state are almost as high as Palin’s (55/27), but he is probably counting more on Iowa than New Hampshire. Everyone else is in serious dark-horse territory, but then again, we probably haven’t seen all of the Republican candidates yet, either.
Update: Two corrections; first, the lead is 23 points, not 26 as I originally wrote, and Romney came up short in 2008, not “last year”. Caffeine shortage strikes again!
It got overrun by migrating locust from Massachusetts.
Yes,...and NH has a front row seat to the whole stinking mess. Whats up w/ the electorate of NH? At one time Romney wouldn’t have been taken seriously. Then again this poll could just be more liberal push for their candidate and safely ignored.
It is *much* too early to make predictions. A lot can (and will) change in the next twelve months.
I believe Romney’s chances are not nearly so strong as he would have us believe.
For example, many Freepers make the assumption that all Mormons would vote for Romney. Not so. I know a lot of Mormons and many of them are against Romney... or at best, lukewarm about him.
This is not obvious because Mormons are a lot like an old-fashioned family: They don’t air family disagreements with “outsiders.”
Mormons tend to be very conservative in every way, and many of them aren’t comfortable with what they learned about Romney in the last election.
All the attention on Romney spotlighted how liberal he really is.
(Not to mention being, in my opinion, slippy, unctuous, and politically flexible.)
The coming campaign for 2012 will simply give more people the opportunity to examine Romney.
I do not believe Romney will ever be President.
Never again.
While McCain wasn’t my dream candidate, I was able to hold my nose and vote for him because
1 not 0bama
2 war hero
3 Palin
There’s no way Mitt Romney gets my vote. Not if he exposed 0bama as a manchurian plant, and personally engaged in mortal combat, saving Palin’s life in the process.
Far as I’m concerned, if it’s Romney vs 0bama, this country can just have another dose of 0bama and suffer the just consequences.
Ooops. “slippy” = slippery
What a joke! The poll didn’t even include Herman Cain who is closer to declaring a run than anyone on the list, and added people who have never expressed any interest in the least!
Love how the old-school GOP are ignoring Cain. They’d take Palin off the list too if they thought they could get away with it.
As a NH resident and ardent conservative I can tell you that my whole family and I will NEVER vote for RINO Romney, PERIOD!
Correct, and I live in NH! The First in the Nation is a scam by the GOP to annoint the chosen one and use the media to punish the losers.
Palin will lose in NH for two reasons:
1. Palin is a Christian, NH is very anti-religon. Lots of “smart” people here that don’t need religon.... At our Church, we jokingly call ourselves “the frozen chosen”.
2. The NH GOP machine hates the TEA Party and Christians.
TEA party is not welcomed by the GOP or Democrats here in NH.
Socialism taught in the government schools is a huge factor and of course the influx from Ma, NY and CT has not helped a bit.
NH is full of above average income, white, atheists with college degrees. Does that sum it up?
When NH turned blue; the Old Man of the Mountain committed suicide by falling to his death...
Open primary allows 'independents' to vote for the worst GOP candidate; then the media fawns all over that candidate, providing momentum. Registered Republicans supported Romney last time, but we all know who won.
Remember that story about Democrats plotting to 'cross over' to vote for Palin as she is seen as the one candidate who would lose to Obama?
Those are your 'independents'...
In this situation though; that strategy could backfire.
Tons of people from New York, as well...especially from the city and surrounding suburbs.
One thing I don't understand about these supposedly "educated voters"; no other group is as easily led by the libtards who run the enemedia . . . with the possible exception of African Americans, who will blindly vote as instructed by their overseers. Multiple times even!
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