Posted on 12/18/2010 12:07:07 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Carpentry work crashing down
By Peter Whoriskey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 18, 2010; A01
IN LAS VEGAS Every day in this desert city, the carpenters climb into their pickups and vans, resumes stacked on the passenger seats, driving first to the union hall, then in circles from one chain-linked construction site to another, asking for work.
For a year or more, it has been the same.
Nothing.
If they keep pursuing work as carpenters, in fact, many of them may never find a job.
In past recessions, it has been an article of faith that as the economy revives, the work will return. But after the profound recession that began in December 2007, jobs in some industries aren't coming back.
This creates what economists call "structural unemployment," the result of a mismatch between the skills of the workforce and those needed by employers. It is feared because it causes longer unemployment spells as workers struggle to transition from one trade to another.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
P!
So knowing this they went out and booted for Harry Reid.
Stupid is as stupid does.
Should say voted for Harry Reid.
My dad was a builder and had to wait out a few years back in the Carter years. One townhouse unit sold in one year.
This time it seems SO much different. I feel sorry for some friends that are in the construction business. The one started a development, got it all permitted, utilities in and a couple units on it before the bottom fell out.
The trouble is, the housing is WAY overbuilt. They were built on the fake premise of easy loans, etc. Back in the Carter years the construction business was hurt because of inflation and high interest rates along with a recession.
Today it is hurt because so many homes were built for folks that couldn’t afford homes based on what they earned. Add in all the folks that can’t afford one now because of job losses, and it will be a LONG time for it to recover IMHO.
And since everything, once built, lasts forever and never needs repair, no carpenters will ever be needed again, anywhere.
Geez, who writes this stuff?
My house was built new in 1999 and has required ZERO carpentry repairs. Obviously wood work in a typical house
does not wear out very fast.
And you would agree that is a GOOD thing, right? But eleven years isn’t a long time. Houses do get older than that and eventually something goes, or houses get replaced.
In an unfettered market, there will be jobs. And if improved materials makes carpentry go the way of buggy whip manufacturing, there will be other things to do.
Now, getting to an unfettered market? That’s another question altogether.
Maybe Barry can teach them all to be community organizers. He doesn’t seem very busy, otherwise.
>>But eleven years isn’t a long time. Houses do get older than that and eventually something goes, or houses get replaced.<<
Maintaining our existing housing takes a fraction of the labor that building new homes does. And one reason is that many of the jobs can be done by the homeowner themselve, just like with automobiles. I do my own brake jobs and have even replaced a water pump and timing belt.
Thing is, even Phoenix will need construction workers the next ten years, but maybe only one for every 50 they had a couple of years ago. Most people can’t wait ten years for another job.
Who needs a union carpenter when you can hire a Mexican for $10 an hour to work under the table? Thanks Harry!
I was also going to mention Carter, new homes came to a stand still during his admin....with 20% interest rate on mortgages, very few bought homes and subdivisions in Michigan that had been started, were left as shell’s. It happened in a sub near my home at the time....those in the home building business had no jobs and it wasn’t just carpenters, it was also electricians, plasterer, plumbers, insulation guys etc. Every profession that depended on home building for a job...and they weren’t building McMansions, just ordinary homes.
When you have jobs based on bubbles, what do you expect will happen?
Good point.
During the "building boom", any fool who knew which end of a hammer to hold was charging a premium, and quality framers/rough&finish people were running around in the biggest, newest truck they could find. The average person was paying out the a$$ to build a house.
Now the bubble's popped, and their windfall is gone.
Yes, I feel for the people who are out of a job, who have families who are suffering, and have an uncertain future thanks to Barney Fwank, Maxine Waters, and the rest of the, "Affordable housing is a right." crowd.
On the other hand, I'm thinking it might have been a good idea to stash some cash when times were fat.
And since people can't afford to move from the house they don't like into a wonderful, expensive new one, no one is going to think to remodel the old one, so no carpenters, electricians, mason, equipment operators will ever be needed again.
While most houses built in 1999 probably aren't quite ready to need repairs and remodeling, there are a lot of older neighborhoods in great locations full of dated houses. I live in one of those 60 year old houses with a nice lot in a perfect location. There is a mini-boom of renovation going on around me. The guy next to me did a major addition and redesign of his place.
And we are going to jump in, too. We are just finishing up the plans for ours. Kitchen will triple in size. Larger dining room. No more doing laundry in the basement. Larger main bathroom. Larger closets. New front and nicer siding.
“On the other hand, I’m thinking it might have been a good idea to stash some cash when times were fat.”
I’m just an old construction worker. Been through this before back in the seventies. My Dad went through building slumps back in the late 50’s early 60’s. Having cash is the key to survival in the construction business.
More people should read “Rich Dad/Poor Dad”. In times of plenty, you save you money to buy asset in tight times at a discount.
My grandfather taught me to never buy a depreciating asset on time.
In the long run of course there will be wood work required
in houses. In the meanwhile with construction in doldrums, we could
see a 3 or 4 year period of slack in carpentry work.
I have not bothered to do research but my seat of the pants guess
is there are 5 times as many new homes built for every one such as RWA is going to remodel extensively. New home construction is very slow every where I look.
About 6 or 7 years ago, my business (carpentry contractor) did a small study on the housing industry in Northern Virginia.
We came to the conclusion that it took almost 300 people to build a single family home in a typical sub-division in the area. That includes everyone involved for whatever length of time required for their particular phase from drawing the plans to closing the sale with the purchaser.
My company in particular would be involved in over 3000 units in a normal year. That was with a total workforce of about 100 direct employes and a subcontractor base of nearly 500. Today I have less than a dozen direct employees and a sub base of 35. This year we will do a little better than break even, better than the last 2 years, but still ...
Those 450 jobs that I don’t have anymore will not be back in my working lifetime. If you call us to remodel your kitchen or add a sun deck to your home, how many people do you think I will send.
One thing that you must consider, we were just talking about carpenters here. The jobs that I’m talking about being lost in this industry span from office receptionist to IT workers to executives. You won’t need those roofers if there is no roof. You won’t need plumbers or electricians either. That nice girl working in payroll? She got fired 3 years ago and won’t be back.
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