Analysis for the Housing Market [Oct:US Median New Home Prices Down 13.9%-Largest 1 month drop ever]

Hanley Wood ^ | Ken Lee

[SC_Pete]

In October, median new home prices plunged to $194,900 from an upwardly revised September figure of $226,300. While revisions for the previous three months show that pricing was firmer than previously expected, October's plunge in new home prices renews concerns about the stability of the new homes market. The 13.9% monthly drop in new home prices last month is the highest on record. Median new home prices are now at their lowest levels since October 2003. Median new home prices are down 9.4% from this time last year and down 8.6% from this time two years ago. This is the sharpest annual decline in new home prices since July 2009.

Despite record-low mortgage rates, new home prices continue to be pressured by weaker demand. Competition from lower-priced existing homes and foreclosures are putting additional pressure on the new homes market. In the current economic environment, buyers are seeking out the best deals and are not willing to spend more than they have to on a home because it remains a buyers' market.

However, weaker prices and record-low mortgage rates have made new homes as affordable as ever and have closed the spread between affordability in the new homes market compared to the existing homes market. Builders have had to cut prices and boost incentives to compete with lower-priced existing homes. Median new home prices do not reflect the use of incentives which would most likely drag the true value of new homes down even further.

**New homes data is subject to large statistical and sampling errors.

Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market By:Ken Lee

Median prices for new home sales are from the U.S. Census Bureau. The data is derived from a survey that is primarily based on a sampling of houses from residential building permits. The median price indicates the mid-point of new home prices; one-half of all new home prices are above and one-half of all new home prices are below the median price. The median price differs in definition from the mean new home price, which is the average of all new home prices. If the average price is higher than the median price, it is an indication that the distribution of home prices is concentrated, or "skewed", towards higher values.

New Homes Sales includes some units whose permits were multifamily. The sample excludes owner-built houses, contractor built houses, units built to be rented, and manufactured housing. Multifamily units are included if the units are side-by-side, have separately metered utilities, include a firewall, and were sold to a buyer.

For more information on median and mean home prices, go to: http://www.census.gov/const/ c25_curr.html http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html/

[SC_Pete]

This was published last week but I have not seen a post about it. Apologies to all if this has been discussed, but the magnitude of the drop (13.9%) in median new home prices is momentous and should be noted.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Naw, this is old news. This week, everything is great. Existing sales are up 10% according to realtor.com. Some douchebag even called Rush touting what a ‘barnburner’ the economy was going to be next year.

All is well. Nothing to see here.

[al baby]

Thank God it was not the biggest in History

[Peter from Rutland]

I’ve lost so much equity in my house I can no longer refinance and I have a credit score over 800. I’m not under water (yet).

[frposty]

Great news. This how we get those houses owned and occupied again. A classic example of a free market in action.

[Defiant]

Any analysis about the price per square foot? Is this simply because builders are only building smaller, cheaper houses?

[SC_Pete]

Weak eyes and fat fingers.

[swarthyguy]

I do recall back in 050607 how everyone was a cockacrowing about the fantasmagorical rise in home “values”.

Gravity sucks.

This “plunge” is more accutarely a correction, a return to historical norms, a measure of sanity.

Sanity? Yes, when a ranch house in the Boston Metro area was going for 3/4 of a million dollars, you knew things were way outta whack.

Sucks is you’re a homeowner of a few years or have maxed out on equity loans, but for new buyers, this is pretty good.

[Forgotten Amendments]

Great news. This how we get those houses owned and occupied again. A classic example of a free market in action.

An advocate of free markets? In America???? KILL HIM! /sarc (sort of)

[dawn53]

I’m with you, I always look at price per sq ft to determine what the price really reflects.

[Alberta's Child]

That’s a good approach. I always look at the cost of owning a home vs. the cost of renting the same home to determine how realistic the price is.

[himno hero]

Its all that hope and change economics....

Its reflective of positive expectations of how well the economy is doing and how we are rebounding! It demonstrates the optimism and support of Obama’s new and better world. Last week we were told how well the economy is doing and how Vegas! is coming back... (irrespective of Reids support groups opinions).

[SeeSac]

Any analysis about the price per square foot? Is this simply because builders are only building smaller, cheaper houses?

You got it. The sales are mostly with new homes and they are building them smaller right now.

[raisincane]

Any analysis about the price per square foot? Is this simply because builders are only building smaller, cheaper houses?

Our firm has listed a foreclosed home on 4.5 acres, about 5,000SF with issues for $119,000.00. We have had super activity with showings, but not many buyers can afford to make repairs. My contention is: who would want to heat and clean this monster?

[SC_Pete]

This report does not factor in price per square foot. It’s just a price per unit survey. The US Census does have annual stats on that and they are sending me the report but i am sure it is not as current as October.

[SC_Pete]

Excellent point. Toll Brothers is making mini-McMansions (toy not included with the kiddie package).

[Conservative Tsunami]

The magnitude of the drop (13.9%) in median new home prices is momentous and should be noted.

Even if this has already been posted, SHOUT IT OUT! This IS monumental!

In one single month Americans have lost 14% of their home equity?? (if anything's left.) This represents losing approximately $28,000 on a home that was valued at $200,000 just last month.

So what we have is the cratering of the single greatest source of American savings - the home.

Now gee - this wouldn't happen to have anything to do with a certain Republican President insisting that "everyone deserves to own a home"?...

... OR the Great Fannie Mae/Freddy Mac Debacle headed by Frank, Waters, and Dodd? Or TARP? Or 0bama's phantom "Stimulus Bill"? OR the regulations and policies by the America Whores of Parliament (and un-named Federal Reserve cabal) that drove American business, industry, and manufacturing to China, India, Mexico, and overseas?

For 20 years this Government has conspired to sabotage the American People, regulate us to death, redistribute our wealth, and selling this so-called "War on Terror" the American People as THE #1 Priority. I'm calling Bullsh*t in that. I'm d@mn sick of it, them, "Nation Building," and their "Global-First" policies.

[smokingfrog]

Location, location, location.

Aspen, CO - price per sq ft = $1,118 (and rising)
Tampa, FL - price per sq ft = $87 (and falling)
Las Vegas, NV - price per sq ft = $106 (slow rise recent months)
Detroit, MI - price per sq ft = $77 (rising/hit bottom?)
Fairfax, VA - price per sq ft = $237 (falling)
Seattle, WA - price per sq ft = $370 (currently falling but up for this year overall)
Houston, TX - price per sq ft = $54 (rising)

[smokingfrog]

So, do you prefer that we just ignore the terrorists, or should we just go ahead and nuke all the muslim countries now and get back to business as usual?