'NK could target mainland next'

The Korea Times ^ | 12-02-2010 | Kim Young-jin

[sukhoi-30mki]

The problem with the preemptive strategy you mentioned is that it doesn’t really have the element of surprise. It takes a lot of time to amass the kind of forces you talk about. If that’s what we were to play with, Pyeonyang can attempt to do what Israel did. After all, the aim of the Israeli preemptive strike was to stave off an Arab preemptive strike.

Or the US and South Korea can go in with what they have at the moment. The buildup of forces can be easily spotted by the Chinese, Russians and North Koreans.

[Joe Boucher]

Even if the NOrks only have old soviet rockets,
If they have enough of them and fire them off around the same time far too many even unguided will severely damage Seouls infrastructure and populace.
Quite obviously the rulers of North Korea don’t give a damn if they lose a million or 10 of its people, just less mouths to feed.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Read the article I sent you. The media has messed up the Chinese claim on reunification. And don’t expect the Chinese to tell you that Kim is their pet.

[Uncle Ike]

I’ve been getting more and more uncomfortable with all of the speculation, of late, on what China *should* do to resolve this situation, to *our* satisfaction - so I’ve spent the past couple of days trying to look at the cards from what might be the Chinese perspective...

And I’ve come to a startling conclusion —

In an armed conflict between NK and SK, China comes out as the BIG WINNER - by doing precisely nothing....

The US is in an untenable position - our options, in case of hostilities, are to

a)abandon - sacrifice - the 30,000 troops-in-place, renege on long-standing defense agreements, and withdraw from the area — in which case, the US is finished as a World Power...

or

b) Honor our treaty obligations, and commit a tremendous amount of blood and treasure (neither of which we can afford) to the war effort - which will, at the very least, weaken the US to the point of insignificance, if not bring down our Government completely.....

Either way, while the military outcome of any such war is a foregone conclusion, it will inevitably leave the entire Korean Peninsula as a devastated area, with only China left with the resources to rebuild....

So, by remaining aloof, the entire SE Asia theater - and, more significantly, market - comes under Chinese sway without any more troop committment than it would take to control the oft-mentioned ‘refugee problem’.....

No wonder they’re not ‘doing what they should’ to calm things down - I really don’t think they see any downside for them in conflict in the Koreas......

[Lazamataz]

Read the article I sent you. The media has messed up the Chinese claim on reunification. And don’t expect the Chinese to tell you that Kim is their pet.

China may say anything it wants. What I am telling you is that we got a very rare look behind the curtain with Assange's WL document drop. In it, our guys are candid, and are basing their conversations on information that we will never ever see.

These are the candid and contemporaneous documents of people who have way more information than you. Than I. Than any article's author.

In these documents, it is repeatedly discussed that China's control on NK is limited, at best.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Umm, you know the problem with the Wikileaks cables is that they really say NOTHING new. The media has claimed for most of the past decade that China is trying to get Pyeongyang to behave. So what exactly are these cables saying??

If they didn’t as leverage as these cables say, China would have put far greater pressure on them following the sinking of the Cheonan and last week’s artillery exchange. The only thing they have done is to condemn US-led wargames. The regime in Pyeongyang needs China more than Beijing needs them. If it was as belligerent as these cables claim, they wouldn’t have stopped after a 15-minute artillery barrage. In other words, connect the dots rather than looking at what these diplomats say.

[LibLieSlayer]

Absolutely.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

We need to survive for two more years... then things will change.

LLS

[GonzoGOP]

The problem with the preemptive strategy you mentioned is that it doesn’t really have the element of surprise.

It does in one way in that it is so completely out of character with the US, South Korea and at least since 1945 Japan. We don't start wars without going through months or years of negotiations in the UN, issuing dozens of ultimatums and generally groveling for a while. It turns Obamas spinelessness into an asset. The Bully never expect the wimpy kid who has been meekly surrendering his lunch money for years to suddenly snap, pull a gun and blow his head off.

If the US moved three carrier battle groups into Korean waters everyone would know about it. But nobody would actually expect us to do anything. The world has become so used to US saber rattling that the fact we are waling around with a saber no longer gets much attention. The world thinks we won't wipe out tush without UN permission in triplicate. So the first time we go full on psycho on North Korea will provide far more shock and awe in political circles than the actual bombs will cause.

There is also one other advantage. Nobody messes with the crazy guy. This has kept North Korea around for the last two decades. The United States will never be loved. And we no longer have the money to buy friends. It is time for the US to be the ultimate in nuclear armed crazy guy. It is time for us to change who is being extorted and who is doing the extorting.

[TSgt]

Agreed regarding China’s limited control.

It makes me wonder, does the North Korean leadership believe their own mantra? Are they certifiable?

Scary thought, maybe they will strike again believing they can without retribution, and that’s when the real shooting starts...

[sukhoi-30mki]

There’s a slight problem with that line of thinking. First, the US has not gone to war with a nuclear-armed rival..yet. Secondly, North Korea is in a position to initiate hostilities in a way that Iraq or the Serbs couldn’t

Not to mention, the whole issue of the Chinese getting worked up.

[LibLieSlayer]

We have a lot of nukes... and we should use them if needed... including tactical... commit to destroy our enemies like we did in WWII. That will not happen under obama... no way in hell.

LLS

[Robe]

Your airliner weapon has been used before .. in WWII..
Operation Aphrodite..
They used mainly War weary B-17’s loaded to capacity with explosives, and flown by radio control into bomb-resistant fortifications such as German U-boat pens and V-1 missile sites.
BTW this was the operation in which JFK’s brother Joesph was killed.
More here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aphrodite
and Here :
Book by Jack Olsen: Aphrodite: Desperate Mission

[GonzoGOP]

Your airliner weapon has been used before .. in WWII..

That was actually where I got the idea. Back then the electronics were not up to the task. You still needed pilots to take off the plane. Now an airliner's standard autopilot and GPS landing aids do most of the job before you even start the conversions.

[Uncle Ike]

” That will not happen under obama... no way in hell. “

I deliberately left out mention of nukes in my speculative analysis - the probability that *we* would ‘go nuclear’, even should NK commit ‘first use’, is negligible....

Secondly, even if we were to use nukes, they would be limited to the Korean Peninsula, and pose no threat to China, herself...

And, third, the use of Nukes, even retaliatory, would make the US a pariah in the “World Community”...

China’s hole-cards are aces......

[GonzoGOP]

There’s a slight problem with that line of thinking. First, the US has not gone to war with a nuclear-armed rival..yet. Secondly, North Korea is in a position to initiate hostilities in a way that Iraq or the Serbs couldn’t

Not to mention, the whole issue of the Chinese getting worked up.

Like i said this this is a desperation strategy. It goes under the assumption that the North Korea are going to attack regardless of what we do. The only choice is to wait for the attack, or hit them first with whatever we can scrape together. We can either "Absorb" North Korea's full nuclear attack as Obama has said, or try to catch as many of them as possible on the ground.

As for China getting worked up. They don't much like us in any case. And they certainly don't show the US any respect. At least this way they might fear us enough to hold their fire. As it is they think they can sink our ships and kill our troops and we won't respond. I would rather have a worked up enemy that fears me, than an enemy in whom i am unable to raise even the slightest concern. The former has a reason to engage in the give and take of serious diplomacy needed to defuse the situation. The latter has no reason to negotiate since he believes he can take whatever he wants any time he wants.

Time is not on our side. China and Russia will soon deploy stealth aircraft. China will within a few years have a fleet of carriers of their own. Our own fleet is rusting away and our pitifully small supply of F-22s and B-2s is getting smaller with each accident. The F-117s are already gone. The collapse of the US economy means that our military will be getting smaller and more obsolete with every passing day. While China's gets larger and more modern.

If we hit now and hold nothing back we might be able to knock out North Korea before China can mobilize. That gives us some slim leverage to negotiate some sort of peace deal. If we wait, we will simply be overrun.

[lacrew]

BM-21’s and BM-24’s only go 15 miles...what I was trying to say is yes, the civilian population would get massacred...but no...Seoul would not be destroyed in two hours. The rockets can’t get there. The Norks would have to move the rockets 15k up to the DMZ, and then fight through around another 25k of South Korean territory to get closer to Seoul.

The entire strategy for decades has been predicated on superior air power, and knowledge that Seoul would not be instantly vaporized (which is why they can hold things like the G-20 summitt there). The only flaw in the plan would be if our friends the Russians have given little Kim modern cruise missiles in great numbers.

[sukhoi-30mki]

North Korea is not going to attack, unless the regime there suffers an internal collapse. They are not suicidal and they know any major conflict, let alone a nuclear war will mean their end. North Korea has survived this long by using its policy of calibrated aggression to gain concessions. The onus on escalation for events such as Cheonan is on the US and Seoul-it has been so for several years. But if you stop the concessions, the onus falls on North Korea. Unfortunately, the West hasn’t seemed inclined to throw the ball back.

The time to hit North Korea was about 15 years ago. Unless you are talking about an all-out nuclear strike, South Korea would be affected. Even a nuclear strike won’t be pretty-with all the fallout stuff.

South Korea stopped US strike on North Korea: former president

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/55a/112.html

[AppyPappy]

China can’t even keep NK refugees out of their country. If the balloon goes up, that trickle becomes a river.

[Uncle Ike]

” China can’t even keep NK refugees out of their country. If the balloon goes up, that trickle becomes a river. “

Strawman...

If refugees become a problem, China can, without breathing hard, put a couple of million troops along the border, with orders to ‘deal decisively’ with NK refugees...

Problem solved......