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Case Shiller: Here Are The 15 Housing Markets That Will Fall The Most By 2012
Business Insider ^ | 11/30/2010 | Gus Lubin and Leah Goldman

Posted on 11/30/2010 9:13:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Case-Schiller's September housing report came out worse than expected, confirming to any doubters that the housing double dip is here.

National home prices dropped 1.5% in September.

The new data will worsen Case-Shiller's already bearish outlook for the housing market. Earlier this month, it forecast a 7.1 percent drop in prices from Q2 '10 to Q2 '11, with price stagnation through Q2 '12.

This is a brutal forecast, which would have wide economic consequences. Five years after the housing peak, markets in Florida, Nevada and California would remain down around 60 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: caseshiller; housing; realestate
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1 posted on 11/30/2010 9:13:59 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Florida (lots of Florida), Arizona, New Jersey, maybe 1 or 2 other states.


2 posted on 11/30/2010 9:20:32 AM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: SeekAndFind
Here on the beaches of Cape San Blas, FL it is beyond horrible. Foreclosures and short sales only, at 10 to 20 cents on the 2006 dollar. There is no local economy and the county commissars keep raising taxes to cover the salaries of all the people they hired during the good times.
3 posted on 11/30/2010 9:22:02 AM PST by Jacquerie (You cannot love your country if you do not love the Declaration and Constitution. Mark Levin.)
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To: SeekAndFind

oh crap - most in florida!!


4 posted on 11/30/2010 9:22:07 AM PST by corkoman
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To: SeekAndFind

Top 15 Worse Housing Market which will continue tanking even in 2012:

AN OPPORTUNITY PERHAPS FOR THE MONIED VULTURES OUT THERE??

#15 Prescott, Ariz.

Median home price today: $170,000

Median home price in 2012: $146,000

#14 Salinas, Calif.

Median home price today: $247,000

Median home price in 2012: $211,000

#13 Pensacola, Fla.

Median home price today: $142,000

Median home price in 2012: $120,000

#12 Cape Coral, Fla.

Median home price today: $100,000

Median home price in 2012: $83,800

#11 West Palm Beach, Fla.

Median home price today: $212,000

Median home price in 2012: $177,000

#10 Punta Gorda, Fla.

Median home price today: $135,000

Median home price in 2012: $111,000

#9 Orlando, Fla.

Median home price today: $155,000

Median home price in 2012: $126,000

#8 Atlantic City, NJ

Median home price today: $220,000

Median home price in 2012: $179,000

#7 Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

Median home price today: $203,000

Median home price in 2012: $165,000

#6 Gainesville, Fla.

Median home price today: $175,000

Median home price in 2012: $142,000

#5 Phoenix, Ariz.

Median home price today: $144,000

Median home price in 2012: $115,000

#4 Ocean City, NJ

Median home price today: $305,000

Median home price in 2012: $242,000

#3 Miami, Fla.

Median home price today: $190,000

Median home price in 2012: $145,000

# 2 Las Vegas, Nev.

Median home price today: $153,000

Median home price in 2012: $112,000

#1 Naples, Fla.

Median home price today: $260,000

Median home price in 2012: $196,000

FEI ( For everyone’s Info ), I took a trip to Las Vegas two weeks ago and what did I see?? Groups of Chinese businessmen being toured around Las Vegas by REAL ESTATE AGENTS.

I spoke to one of these agents and they tell me that these Chinese are here to look into buying property and renting them out. Imagine buying a property for $100,000 and renting it out for say $800/month. That’s like putting money in a bank for 8% interest every year.

The agents tell me that this has been happening for over a year now and Las Vegas is not the only place where the Chinese are visiting... Arizona is the other.

Like it or not, the foreigners are coming here to OWN parts of America.


5 posted on 11/30/2010 9:22:47 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

This understates the issue: new prices for median homes fell 13.9% from September to October. THAT IS A CRASH FOLKS. End of subsidies, end of market. Overdue and artificially delayed CRASH. Double dip here wwe come.

Thanks, Paul Krugman.


6 posted on 11/30/2010 9:25:44 AM PST by SC_Pete
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To: SeekAndFind

Helicopter Ben just messed is drawers when the read this report.


7 posted on 11/30/2010 9:30:24 AM PST by mojito
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To: SeekAndFind

Ocean City NJ. Interesting. I may scoop one of those up. I would imagine next winter would be the best time.


8 posted on 11/30/2010 9:31:23 AM PST by MattinNJ (Palin and/or Pence.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Looks like a lot of retirees are taking in the shorts.


9 posted on 11/30/2010 9:33:11 AM PST by caver (Obama: Home of the Whopper)
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To: mojito
And the bad news on housing just keep coming.... This from Hot Air

The housing bubble continues to deflate despite the Obama administration’s efforts to delay the inevitable. Housing prices sank faster in September than in any time this year after seeing them rise briefly in the spring, thanks to short-term interventions by the federal government. As foreclosures start increasing, values will drop even further:

Home prices are falling faster in the nation’s largest cities, and a record number of foreclosures are expected to push prices down further through next year.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday fell 0.7 percent in September from August. Eighteen of the cities recorded monthly price declines.

Cleveland recorded the largest decline. Prices there dropped 3 percent from a month earlier. Prices in San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego, which had been showing strength this year, also dropped in September from August.

Interestingly, two metro areas showed gains — Washington DC and Las Vegas. The nation’s capitol hasn’t had the foreclosure issues of other major metropolitan areas, mainly because unemployment has barely made a dent in DC. Las Vegas, on the other hand, has been one of the epicenters of the housing crisis, and its positive report may indicate that the worst of it has passed in Nevada, where unemployment is highest.

That high level of joblessness has been the main problem in the housing market, which is why the gimmicky interventions of the Obama administration have had no effect on the housing markets. All they did was delay the inevitable revaluation of assets in the marketplace after the collapse of the bubble, a process which will continue no matter how many interventions the White House stages. Demand simply isn’t materializing at current prices, which means that assets are still overvalued. Until demand rises, housing prices will continue to fall, pushed hard by cheap foreclosure sales that will make it more difficult for people to sell through normal channels.

The only way to boost demand is to put people back to work — and the only way to do that is to stop spending billions on cheap, gimmicky interventions.

10 posted on 11/30/2010 9:35:00 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: MattinNJ
Ocean City NJ. Interesting. I may scoop one of those up. I would imagine next winter would be the best time.

Just don't get caught moving any of your guns between your residences.


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

11 posted on 11/30/2010 9:38:32 AM PST by The Comedian (Government: Saving people from freedom since time immemorial.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Like it or not, the foreigners are coming here to OWN parts of America.

Since you posted the article, I'll deffer to your opinion, but I remember the same thing being said about the Chinese in the 1980's.

I would suspect China will suffer the same sorry fate.

12 posted on 11/30/2010 9:38:51 AM PST by End Times Sentinel (In Memory of my Dear Friend Henry Lee II)
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To: SeekAndFind

a few of these reflect a collapsed second home market where there is no demand or credit for beach or beach oriented homes

it will always be worse there than primary home market

oddly some places where I live have held up

Urban Nashville....Belle Meade, Green Hills...the posh areas...have held up solid...appreciation has slowed but values have held and new construction is still happening ...even spec building on clusters but mostly just homes built per order

out in rural Williamson county where I moved it’s declined a bit...I’d say 20% since 2007 and maybe more in past 18 months

several other Nashville ring counties have been hurt much much worse...

Nashville has had less a recession than most but pockets like Spring Hill (GM) have been clobbered


13 posted on 11/30/2010 9:42:19 AM PST by wardaddy ("Out Here" by Josh Thompson pretty much says it all to those who will never understand anyhow)
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To: SeekAndFind
I spoke to one of these agents and they tell me that these Chinese are here to look into buying property and renting them out. Imagine buying a property for $100,000 and renting it out for say $800/month. That’s like putting money in a bank for 8% interest every year.

If they buy at $100,000 and the value further depreciates to $75,000, and there is no one around to rent them; just how good of an investment is it?

The fuel of the boom years in Las Vegas was construction; a sector that will be dead for the foreseable future in Vegas.

Remember when some Japanese bought the Pebble Beach resort? They got killed when they finally bailed out. Investing in Las Vegas is not much different in concept.

14 posted on 11/30/2010 9:44:25 AM PST by SeaHawkFan
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To: SeekAndFind

>>Groups of Chinese businessmen being toured around Las Vegas by REAL ESTATE AGENTS.<<

Reminds me of the 1980’s, when everyone thought that Japan was buying out the US. The problem with being number 2 is that it DEPENDS on number 1 (the US) being strong. If the US goes down, so do you.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if the US stopped buying Chinese goods. I think I may get to see in a year or two. At least for the most part.


15 posted on 11/30/2010 9:45:52 AM PST by RobRoy (The US Today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: wardaddy

My home in central Kentucky that I bought last year has held up. Heck, I’m refinancing and it is worth MORE than it was then.


16 posted on 11/30/2010 9:50:26 AM PST by RobRoy (The US Today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: SeekAndFind

Naples, FL is #1. Pretty unbelievable considering the amount of wealth there......almost as unbelievable as the waves the surfers are riding in the photo they attached. I’ve never seen waves like that on the west coast of Fl. The photo might be from Florida, but it isn’t Naples.


17 posted on 11/30/2010 10:02:55 AM PST by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Salinas, CA is gonna need a shovel in order to dig some place to fall into!


18 posted on 11/30/2010 10:05:38 AM PST by Redleg Duke (We didn't limit out, but we nailed a bunch of RATS!)
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To: The Comedian

I lost them all during a fishing trip. Damn shame. Lot of ammo went down into the drink as well.


19 posted on 11/30/2010 10:18:08 AM PST by MattinNJ (Palin and/or Pence.)
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To: Owl_Eagle

#15 Prescott, Ariz.

Median home price today: $170,000

Median home price in 2012: $146,000


Prescott AZ, (pronounced Press-kit) - Yavapai College - the only community college I know of with a gunsmithing school.

http://www.gunsmithing.org/faculty.htm

One of the cities I’ve identified when I’m able to flee CA. The other is Brookings OR.


20 posted on 11/30/2010 10:31:36 AM PST by GunsAndBibles
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