Don't Run Sarah!

I spent only a few hours with the former governor, helping to prepare her for the vice presidential debate in October 2008. And during that brief window, I saw Palin at one of her most vulnerable moments, when any result other than a complete train wreck seemed impossible. And yet I also saw a determined woman buckle down, recover her confidence and then storm the national stage where she more than held her own against a seven-term senator.

Did she face some tough slogging to reach her remarkable perch? Sure, you betcha. I admire her tenacity, her verve, her moxie, and her pluck. As she releases what’s sure to be another bestseller, America by Heart, I think it’s phenomenal how Palin has been able to leverage her moment in the spotlight. I marvel at her masterful manipulation of the media, and her ability to redirect the national debate with merely a tweet. Most of all, I like the way she defies conventional wisdom and does things her own way: She doesn’t retreat, she reloads. And without Palin and the Tea Party backing Republican candidates, I doubt the crimson tide would have risen so high Nov. 2.

Palin’s appeal completely befuddles metro-intellectuals. They scoff at her “experience,” holding the one-time city manager, mayor, oil and gas commission chair, governor, and vice presidential nominee to a different standard than candidate Obama. A marathon runner, mother of five, and grandmother to one, she has no qualms about smacking a slimy halibut—or an oil and gas company—upside the head. And don’t be fooled, underneath that “prom hair” is a brilliant populist.

Yet I find myself continually goaded into denigrating her, saying things like “she’s reached her sell-by date,” “her stock is going down,” and “if she’s smart, she won’t run for president.” And I was going to go on TV recently and say, “It’s rare you hear quantitative easing and Sarah Palin in the same sentence,” until I realized that she did a hell of a lot better job explaining the complex concept than I could.

Though she is rightfully suspicious of advice from outside Team Palin, and she certainly doesn't care what I think, it is my strong opinion that she should not run. Not just because I don’t agree with her positions or her politics, but because the coming political fight is about more than the future of Sarah Palin. It’s about the future of the country.

All the fun, the money, the power will only be diminished if she runs. Because I don’t care how you cut it, in the end she will lose.

President Obama’s approval rating is now just 39 percent, and he is statistically tied in a direct matchup with Palin according to a new Zogby poll. And according to Quinnipiac, American voters believe that Obama does not deserve a second term by a margin of 49 to 43 percent. But Palin is viewed unfavorable by 51 percent of voters. And among independents, the key swing voting bloc, her negative is at 54 percent. She is not the right candidate right now.

Framing the presidential contest ahead, Mona Charen put it well: “Voters chose a novice with plenty of star power in 2008 and will be inclined to swing strongly in the other direction in 2012. Americans will be looking for sober competence, managerial skill, and maturity, not sizzle and flash.”

If Palin runs, I think the entire Republican primary process will be hijacked. With ardent fans and a rabid media, it will become Palin-palooza. A celebrity fest will follow with even more amplitude than the adulation and adoration that surrounded Barack Obama, who was so revered he was sometimes referred to in biblical proportions as “The One.” An all-consuming super nova, Palin will suck the oxygen out of every room, everywhere she goes. And one of two things will happen. Discerning conservative voters in early primary states will be offended by the circus-like atmosphere and the presumption that they could so easily fall for a “cult of personality.” And they will vote against her. And she will lose. Or, Republican voters will be completely swept up in the mania and nominate her as the GOP standard bearer to go up against President Obama. And she will lose—perhaps the only Republican nominee who could lose in 2012.

But I also think she shouldn’t run for her sake. How could life get any better? She has more power, money, control, and influence than she could have ever possibly imagined. Two bestselling books, almost 2.5 million Facebook fans, a record-breaking cable TV show, and a daughter who made it to the finals on another TV show—not because of her abilities, but because she’s Sarah Palin’s daughter, and by god, the Palinistas out there defiantly come to her rescue week after week.

Palin is having fun. She decided governing Alaska was, well, just a pain. Too much work. A hassle. Whatever. Next. There I go again, denigrating. See, it’s just a reflex. It’s easy to discount her accomplishments, and to ignore the ludicrous opposition Palin faced in the courts and in the press on her return to office from the campaign trail. But my point is, all the fun, the money, the power will only be diminished if she runs. Because, I don’t care how you cut it, in the end she will lose. She is just too polarizing a figure at this point in her career to win a general election. And if the Republicans lose to a weakened President Obama, she will forever be blamed for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

But I know how these things go. First of all, as James Carville said, running for president is like sex. Once you’ve done it, it’s hard to stop. Second, once the drum beat starts, and all your friends and admirers start telling you, “For the sake of the Republic, it’s your duty to run,” it’s awfully hard not to let your ego get filled with a lot of helium. Next thing you know, you’re shivering at a diner in January in Iowa.

I know there are millions of conservative women and young grizzlettes out there who admire Sarah Palin. She inspires them; she is them. They know that beneath the sequined lapel pin roars the heart of a Mama Grizzly wronged. And they are offended when elites, the media, and smart asses like me dismiss her infectious optimism, her pitch-fork populism, and her love of family, faith and the flag.

In my view, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened to her as a political figure had she not been plucked too soon from obscurity, if she had been allowed to ripen on the vine for a couple of terms as governor of Alaska before emerging on the national scene. Alas, she was thrown onto the rocket sled of celebrity and has ridden to heights never before seen.

And if Palin doesn't run for the top slot, she will very likely be on the short list again for vice president. Or certainly for a cabinet slot if the Republicans win.

Only one thing is for sure. Sarah Palin is going to be around for a very long time. She’s already had a few last laughs, and she’s likely to have a whole lot more before the closing credits roll. ’Cause life as America’s sweetheart—and siren for the left—is “flippin’ fun.”

No matter what happens, whether she runs for president or not, Palin is going to be Pot Stirrer-in-Chief.

Where we disagree is the threat Sarah poses to them as a candidate. I am not convinced that they fear her nearly as much as some think. I think that they have a visceral dislike for her, but am not convinced at all that they fear her.

Well, I don't know what to tell you, except to stop for a moment and look at all of the negative commentary about Palin the leftstream MSM is pumping out.

Their output against Palin is prodigious, and as far as I can tell, unprecedented. Don't forget, they're attacking someone who hasn't even declared her intention to run for the presidency.

If you don't read that reaction to her as pure, unadulterated terror, then I don't think you're reading the opposition correctly.

A "visceral dislike" is one thing. The MSM has a visceral dislike for a whole lot of people on the right, but they're not filling the public square with bombast about them, day and night.

No, there's a marked difference in their reactions to Sarah Palin, and every other center-right politician in the country. There's no doubt whatsoever that they fear her like no figure since Reagan, and will do everything in their power to bring her down.

Mrs. Palin would be a splendid pick to run the party.

Like a great many other conservatives, I think it would be sheer folly to put our MVP in the position of team manager, when she ought to be out on the field throwing touchdown passes.

The FR bubble against Mitt is not realistic. For every one like you who says “I won’t,” there is someone on our side who says the same thing about Palin.

So why does she lead the pack of presidential hopefuls in poll after poll, after poll?

Why isn't the MSM (national and global) focused like a laser beam on Mitt Romney, 24/7/365, if Palin's support is only narrowly confined to communities like FR?

Take the blinders off, friend. Sarah Palin is our front runner, and has been, since 2008.

If you paid very close attention to her doings on the 2010 campaign trails, disregard a mis- or mal-endorsement here and there and every step she took, every move she made, could be construed as a splendid audition for succeeding the dubious Mr. Steele. She has organisational skills to burn; she has a way of negotiating the political backrooms and backwaters; and, she has a positive nose for political horse flesh. Marry those to her ability---at least, not being an officially declared candidate herself---to stay on or within firm reach of message, and you have everything Steele is not but the GOP needs, and none too soon. She would make (will make?) a splendid RNC chair.

The problem is that the RNC does not operate that way, and Sarah Palin is NOT going to move all the way from Wasilla, Alaska just to submit herself to the whims of the Beltway RINO establishment, which serves as the RNC's Board of Directors.

The problem is that the RNC does not operate that way, and Sarah Palin is NOT going to move all the way from Wasilla, Alaska just to submit herself to the whims of the Beltway RINO establishment, which serves as the RNC's Board of Directors.

Why not? From what I've seen, a) the way the RNC is operating isn't exactly doing the GOP any big favours these days (and there's been rumbling enough about trying to nudge Mr. Steele out of the chair); and, most important, b) the lady isn't exactly averse to ambling on down from Wasilla, Alaska to slay dragons otherwise. She just might like a challenge like that. And she'd have an awful lot of rank and file to back her up on it, wouldn't she?

The FR bubble against Mitt is not realistic. For every one like you who says “I won’t,” there is someone on our side who says the same thing about Palin.

Huge differences.

Romney broke records in spending in the primary, and he had all of the organization and manpower, yet lost against a couple of unfunded, unmanned, weak campaigns, Romney has only managed to win a single election in his 18 years of running, and he left that office a failure with 34% approval, and his hopes for reelection dashed, the democrats took over the seat.

Palin has a proven record of election success, and was the most popular Governor in America, and her effect in this election were history making, Palin's support is deep, and conservative, Romney's is shallow and top heavy.

Palin does not have an "FR bubble", she has the highest favorable approval of all primary candidates.

Wrong. Palin has a HUGE FR bubble that refuses to hear anything bad about her, even if accurate (and, to repeat, 99% is not accurate). But this is a gigantic weakness---the same exact weakness that surrounds Obama, namely an inability to take criticism of any sort. This is not PALIN who can't do this, but her supporters, and even when the criticism is helpful and warranted.

Now, back to Mitt. You can say what you want about his showing in 2008---when, shall we recall---both Huck and McCain tag-teamed him. But ordinary, average people who are not ideologues like the guy, and his name is ALWAYS among the first to come up with people who don't follow politics on a daily basis---and NEVER Palin's name.

There is a blinder on for Mitt here at FR. It's one thing not to like him or his policies. It's quite another to fail to understand his appeal to a lot (perhaps not a majority, but a lot) of ordinary folks.

Excuse me??? Show me two national polls that have her at the top of the GOP presidential hopefuls. Quite the contrary, most of the head-to-head polls I've seen (I don't believe 'em, but I've seen 'em) show her doing poorly if not the worst of all the big candidates against Obama.

But you can see by the responses what happens on FR when you insinuate that St. Sarah isn't the perfect candidate. She can do no wrong. On the other hand, you can also see that everyone dismisses Mitt, even though I bet if you go ask 10 people on the street whom they'd prefer, they'd say Mitt. I think they're wrong, and that's not the point. The point is that here on FR, people have blinders on about Mitt and underestimate his appeal while overestimating Palin's appeal to non-ideologues.

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> “...Not just because I don’t agree with her positions or her politics, but because the coming political fight is about more than the future of Sarah Palin. It’s about the future of the country.”

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Which is precisely why she has to run, and win or we are toast!
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LOL, Palin’s conservative support here at freerepublic is reflective of her current 82% Republican approval, and her 93% approval as a Governor.

FR’s disdain for Mitt Romney is reflective of his dismal showing in the 2008 campaign, and his slinking out of office as a failure with 34% approval as a Governor.

You can push Romney all you want, but conservatives don’t buy the product, and when push comes to shove, voters don’t either.

When Palin runs her 150 million dollar advertising campaign
in the primary, it will be to show the truth about herself, Romney’s 150 million dollar promotional campaign in 2008, was to conceal the truth about himself.

By the way, you really show your hand when you see the more qualified, and stronger candidate, 3 term Governor Huckabee’s candidacy only through Romney’s self absorbed eyes, as merely an affront to Mitt Romney, rather than as Huckabee’s own campaign for the presidency, or vice-Presidency.

a) Power in the RNC is NOT centralized as it is in the DNC. The RNC is run like a corporation, with the chair serving as CEO, and the beltway GOP poo-bahs serving as a Board of Directors. Hence, the RNC chair does NOT have the same level of power as his or her counterpart in the DNC, and the collective Board can effectively veto any changes that an incoming chairwoman such as Palin would try to implement. She would find herself locked in a cage again, as she was as governor in Alaska.

b)There's a big difference in making weekly trips to various venues in the US and moving to Washington, DC full time ro run the RNC. A single flight from Anchorage to NY or DC takes at least 8-10 hours each way, with Seattle the half-way point.

The point is that here on FR, people have blinders on about Mitt and underestimate his appeal while overestimating Palin's appeal to non-ideologues.

So, that's why Mitt beat McCain in the 2008 primaries and the libs have been doing their damnedest to destroy him, right?

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> “But if I could wave a wand today and put anyone in the presidency, it would be Jim DeMint. He has both an instinctual (which Palin has) grasp of conservatism and an intellectual basis (which I don’t think she really has).”

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I don’t know how you could say that.

I am a big fan of DeMint’s ideas, but “intellectual basis?”

Are we talking about the same DeMint that sounds like Gomer Pyle’s cousin when he speaks in public?

Intellectually, Palin has it over the entire field for 2012. Who has ever out-smarted her? Every gaffe, or misstep that has been attributed to her has in reality been due to the McCain committee’s bumbling ineptness. This woman is the most politically savvy candidate that Republicans have ever had at their disposal in over 100 years. She does, without advisors, what others cannot do with a staff of dozens.
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