Posted on 11/17/2010 2:41:28 PM PST by NormsRevenge
Eight names will be drawn at random Thursday from a pool of 36 finalists for positions on the state's new redistricting commission, and a Santa Monica College political science professor has calculated that there are 3.2 million possible combinations.
What's more, Dr. Brain Lawson has figured the chances of names being drawn by gender, county of residence, income, ethnicity and what he calls being "incumbent friendly," basing his calculations on the detailed profiles of each finalist available on the Internet. He sees 11 of the 36 being "incumbent friendly" due to experience with redistricting and government, and names them in his report.
The state auditor's office will draw the eight names Thursday morning. Those eight will then choose the other six panelists from the remaining pool by the end of the year. The final commission will consist of five Democrats, five Republicans and four who are either independents or minor party registrants.
If Lawson's calculations become reality, the eight names drawn Thursday will have more women than men, more incumbent-unfriendly members than not, more Latinos than members of any other ethnicity, more members with incomes in the $125,000-$250,000 range than any other, and more members (2) from Los Angeles than any other county.
Once chosen, the full commission will redraw 80 Assembly districts, 40 state Senate districts, four Board of Equalization districts and new districts for the state's congressional delegation, whose size (now 53) will be determined from 2010 census data.
It's a new process, born of voter approval of Proposition 11 in 2008 and Proposition 20 this month, the latter adding congressional districts to the commission's authority. And whatever the commission decrees could be subject to court battles thereafter.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.sacbee.com ...
Well, at least a signature of a Gub like SchwarzenKennedy or Re-Pete Wilson won’t be on the next state redistricting 10-year plan when it hits the showroom floor..
>> Dr. Brain Lawson
Srsly?
The doctor’s name is really “Brain”?
Or the author’s proofreader is missing his?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up Democrat-friendly.
If not, its headed to the courts.
Same in FL if the final map isn’t GOP-friendly there.
Does anyone honestly believe that this commission will end up being anything other than “incumbent-friendly”?
I get 30.2M combinations:
C(36,8) = 36! / 8! (36 - 8)! = 30,260,340
If you expect the commission to take politics out of redistricting, then you expect too much of human nature.
If it really will ensure competitive elections, I will be surprised.
Did Dr. Brain blow the calculation? PolySci better talk to a statistics prof.
I voted yes on prop 20 because I figured that with a commission there is at least a possibility of a neutral map or a GOP favored map. There is zero chance the hyper-Democrat legislature and Jerry Brown would have drawn anything other than a Dem-favored map.
You are correct. 30,260,340 combinations.
Draw the districts along section lines & be done with it.
This is one of the shabby secrets of American politics.
Computers are very good at this type of work.
Rectangles with minimum perimeters.
The dominant party can select the starting point.
To do otherwise is to discriminate.
Just ask Lani Guinier
Full list of names:
http://www.wedrawthelines.ca.gov/downloads/demographics_cities.pdf
http://blogs.kqed.org/capitalnotes/2010/11/12/36-potential-redistricting-commissioners/
The 36 finalists — 12 Democrats, 12 Republicans, 12 who are either independents or belong to a minor party — do have some standouts:
Paul McKaskle, an independent, is perhaps the most seasoned; the retired dean of the University of San Francisco School of Law served twice as an adviser to the California Supreme Court when it intervened to draw political maps.
Vincent Barabba, a Republican, served as director of the U.S. Census under President Richard Nixon and later was appointed again by President Jimmy Carter.
William Hamm, an independent, served as Legislative Analyst for the state from 1977 to 1986.
Victoria Aguayo Schupbach, a Democrat, is a former regional director of the National Labor Relations Board.
Many others in the final pool are college professors, civil servants, or attorneys. Others are, well, just folks who seem to be interested (count co-owner of the Sacramento area bookstore The Avid Reader Stanley Forbes in this list, as well as Sacramento Press Club treasurer Kathleen Beasley who — full disclosure — I know from my time as president of the organization).
Demographically speaking, most remaining applicants are either white or Latino; most are in Los Angeles County; and most have an income between $75,000 and $250,000.
Makes you wonder how objective the selection process was - and just how objective the redistricting process is going to be.
I’ve been saying something very similar for years. I wonder how it could be written into a proposition for the California ballot in such a way that it wouldn’t end up strangled in court?
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