It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10

Business Insider ^ | 11/14/2010 | Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecast and Opinion

[WebFocus]

It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.

According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.

The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.

By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.

The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic".

As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment….even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates.

In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies is not as green as people might think. Most alternative technologies rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the radioactive waste produced by rare earths mining process makes oil sands look like a green energy. This overlooked (or ignored) fact just now received some attention due to the sudden shortage caused by China’s embargo and export quotas on rare earths.

[Fred Nerks]

thanks for posting that...read it ages ago, lost the link, good to see it again, everyone should read Thomas Gold, this is my favourite paragraph:

Recharging of oil and gas fields. There have been numerous reports in recent times, of oil and gas fields not running out at the expected time, but instead showing a higher content of hydrocarbons after they had already produced more than the initially estimated amount. This has been seen in the Middle East, in the deep gas wells of Oklahoma, on the Gulf of Mexico coast, and in other places. It is this apparent refilling during production that has been responsible for the series of gross underestimate of reserves that have been published time and again, the most memorable being the one in the early seventies that firmly predicted the end of oil and gas globally by 1987, a prediction which produced an energy crisis and with that a huge shift in the wealth of nations. Refilling is an item of the greatest economic significance, and also a key to understanding what the sources of all this petroleum had been. It is also of practical engineering importance, since we may be able to exercise some control over the refilling process.

Born May 22, 1920(1920-05-22) Vienna, Austria Died June 22, 2004(2004-06-22) (aged 84) Ithaca, New York

Nationality Austrian Fields Astrophysics, astronomy, biophysics, cosmology, geophysics, aerospace engineering Institutions Cambridge University, Royal Observatory, Greenwich, Harvard University, Cornell University Alma mater Trinity College, Cambridge

[SuperLuminal]

Why hasn't anyone issued the requisite B.S. Alert?

Why doesn't the title line have the requistite Barf Alert?

[Titus-Maximus]

The price will rise and people will find more, period, and if it is all gone the price will be high enough for people to liquify coal, or grow algae or pyrolyze garbage or do any number of things to make oil. High prices will solve themselves in a free market economy where do-gooder liberals are held in a box off stage so they cannot damage anything.

People have been finding solutions to shortages for thousands of years, and life has gotten better. Stop scaring children.

Malthus was wrong and remains so.

[Rick_Michael]

to READ...

[Candor7]

Its very cear, the current “ Peak Oil “ paradigm is a myth, its horribly damaging to our economy.

Frothing at the mouth greens have a hard time even reading Dr. Golds planetary wisdom without lapsing into tantrum mode.

The only reason his view has lapsed is that he passed away in 2004, but his writiings are so intelligent and focused, that the view he communicates is mind boggling. This was one of my best reads this year.

[onedoug]

This is not true.Its a myth

Gaines, Susan M., Echoes of life : what fossil molecules reveal about earth history

Have a good day.

[AnalogReigns]

a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment...

Which is exactly why we have a MARKET BASED ECONOMY. It will adjust, as prices rise, with logarithmical advances in technology, just as those prices begin to rise due to shortages.

This is why we CANNOT rely on "government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates," as no one can know the future.

I think it took 20 years or less to convert from a horse-based to an automobile based transportation system--and ALL without government planning.

I'm not worried in the least about running out of oil...as the scarcer it gets, innovations in conservation (fuel economy) and alternative power sources will proliferate, limited only by the human imagination (and government mandate...).

The freer a national economy is, the better it will be for that nation.

[AnalogReigns]

There are actually 2 competing theories of oil/gas production in the earth. One is the fossil-fuel theory, pretty universal in the West, which is that ancient biological organisms rotting turn into the hydro-carbons of oil/gas.

The other, abiogenic theory, is that chemical interactions deep below the hard crust create oil and gas, which then percolate upwards into rock formations capable of bearing it in the crust underground. The Russians traditionally have accepted this....and have subsequently discovered a whole LOT of oil...

If abiogenic theory is true, and oil production is essentially infinite--it changes the whole equation, eh?