Posted on 11/09/2010 5:50:39 AM PST by Kaslin
Democrats have many more seats to defend (23-10), but several GOP moderates may be exposed to primary challenges.
The 2010 election campaign is over, but 2012 is nearly upon us. Within weeks, we will know the candidates for president, and within months, preparations will begin for the 2012 Senate races. Which Senate seats are likely to be in play? Some of this will depend on how the next Congress shakes out, as well as what retirements occur, but several senators are already in danger.
Republican in danger of general election loss:
Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) shocked the political world by winning the election to replace Ted Kennedy. He immediately became the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election in 2012. Brown has not pleased conservatives with his votes for bills like the financial reform package, but he may convince voters he’s been the independent voice he promised he’d be when they elected him to the Senate. He is strong on fund-raising, with $6 million on hand. However, Democrats have a wide array of potential candidates to hurl at Brown.
Republicans in danger of a primary or convention defeat:
Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) has served six terms and is at risk of a Tea Party challenge. Senator Lugar has made a career of being praised by Democrats, notably President Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign. Lugar could face a strong challenge from Representative-elect Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who finished second to Senator Dan Coats in the Republican Senate primary.
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also has served six terms and is also at risk of a Tea Party challenge. He does have an 89% career ACU rating, which makes him far more conservative than Lugar. However, the anti-establishment undercurrent in Utah led to the ouster of Senator Bob Bennett at the state Republican Party convention last summer. That said, Hatch has done less to rile conservatives than Bennett or Lugar. He will likely hang on to his seat unless he is opposed by rising star Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT).
Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) faces major discontent from Republicans after backing President Obama’s stimulus and supporting the Senate Finance Committee’s health care bill. A Public Policy Polling survey in September showed 63% of Maine Republicans wanted to dump Snowe, but no apparent challengers have the gravitas to win the general election. After Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christie O’Donnell’s loss, the hunger for an “anybody but Snowe” campaign may dampen.
Senator John Ensign (R-NV) has to be considered severely endangered due to a scandal surrounding an extramarital affair. Unlike the prostitution scandal involving re-elected Senator David Vitter (R-LA), Ensign’s scandal may not be easily dismissed due to the payment of $96,000 that many allege to be hush money. Nevada Republicans showed their distaste for politicians with soap opera-like family lives when they tossed out Governor Jim Gibbons (R-NV) in the Republican primary this year. Ensign is likewise vulnerable to a defeat in the primary. If he somehow makes it past the Republican primary, he’ll become a top Democratic target in the fall.
Democrats in danger of general election defeat:
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has to be considered vulnerable after the Republican wave swept the GOP into the governor’s mansion. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), as a member of the House leadership, could raise serious funds to challenge the two-term Democrat.
A poll conducted for the Daily Kos in August showed Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) with a 40% approval rating. Not great numbers for a senator running for re-election in a swing state full of strong candidates, such as former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin (R-MO).
Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly defeated former Senator Conrad Burns with 49% in 2006. While Barack Obama made Montana close with three campaign stops in 2008, the state went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004, and that may make Tester’s ObamaCare vote a big issue. The state mood may be shifting against Democrats, as Republicans captured the state House. Six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) has been discussed as a potential challenger.
After his vote for ObamaCare, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) was famously booed out of a pizza place in Nebraska. This gives an idea of how far the once-popular governor has fallen. Nelson’s support clinched the passage of ObamaCare, which is an anathema in Nebraska. Barring the mother of all Democratic wave years in 2012, Nelson is finished and may opt to retire. Possible challengers include Governor Dave Heineman and state Attorney General Jon Bruning.
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) came into office on the strength of the Democratic wave of 2006 and the unpopularity of incumbent Senator Mike DeWine. However, a PPP poll this year showed Brown with a 32% approval rating. Incoming Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor could be a good challenger, provided Governor-elect John Kasich is popular with Ohio voters.
Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) ran as a strong pro-life Democrat, but backed ObamaCare and has been a reliable Democratic vote. A PPP poll this year showed Casey with a 31% approval rating. This makes him a prime target for any of the state’s congressmen.
Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican, rode a Democratic wave to a narrow victory in 2006, but PPP found Webb trailing former Senator George Allen (R-VA) in a rematch.
Democrats in danger, if an unlikely candidate runs:
A challenge from former Governor Jeb Bush could endanger Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL).
Governor Linda Lingle passed on a challenge to state political institution Senator Daniel Inouye, but may consider a challenge to the lackluster and beatable Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HA).
Endangered independent:
Polls have shown Senator Joseph Lieberman’s (I-CT) popularity waning. Lieberman’s actions in opposing the public option on health care, but eventually supporting the final bill, have antagonized both the left and right. This leaves him in a position where re-election is highly unlikely. Look for this seat to shift to the Democrats.
Possible retirement:
After the defeat of Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) and the retirement of Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) remains the last Democrat in North Dakota’s formerly all-Democrat delegation. The North Dakota political dynamic that allowed Democrats to represent this solidly red state in Congress since 1986 may have broken down with the passage of ObamaCare. Don’t be surprised if Conrad, like Dorgan, decides to retire, which will open the seat for one of the state’s ambitious statewide officeholders.
The bottom line? Both parties have worries, but Democrats have more of them, as they hold 23 of the 33 seats up in 2012.
I’d love to see Kent “countrywide” Conrad >ahem< retire. Two down, one to go.
I think Brown will win. Look at the totals for the governor’s race last week..Add the GOP tot he indie, and it’s very close. Also, Patrick and the Dems in the state legislature will continue to run Mass into the ground, so Brown will benefit from a huge “send the bastards a message” voter turn-out..
Brilliant post..thanks..
Sadly, any of those RATs might win in a presidential year. You forgot about Meehan, Tierney and Robert Reich. And you didn’t mention Lynch or Neal, perhaps because they are (at least nominally) pro-life and would have a hard time winning the Dem nomination. But any of those Democrats have sufficiently high name ID that they will be tough to beat in a presidential-election year. Brown was able to ride a perfect storm to win by 3% in a low-turnout special election, but he will face a much tougher environment in 2012. Whoever wins the Democrat nomination will start off as the favorite.
Teabaggy??? Holy crap. I can’t imagine the ribbing she took back in college . . . .
If Allen runs, he’ll win.
After all Dick Wadhams will be off ruining someone else’s chances like he has in Colorado. His win with John Thune was a fluke (or out of his hands). Keep him out of Virginia.
There are several lining up for consideration to run. Not the least of which is Bob Marshall who almost beat Jim Gilmore in the primary in 2008 (and would have had a better chance against Mark Warner).
Webb is toast. The only question remaining is whether or not he’ll run again.
Can we at least kick him anyway?
I did forget about Tierney, a definite B-lister, and Meehan, who’s been out of politics, but I suppose he could come back in. Robert Reich is at UC-Berkeley. Not that he ever crossed my mind anyway. Wierd thing: I see Reich is from the same home town as Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton: Scranton, PA.
Hillary claims to be from Scranton? I know that as a child she would summer somewhere in Pennsylvania (that required her family to drive through NY to get there, or at least so she claimed when she ran for the Senate from NY), but she’s from suburban Chicago, not Anthracite Country, PA.
As for Reich, he ran in the Massachusetts gubernatorial primary in 2002 (finishing second to Shannon O’Brien), and I could see him returning to MA to run for the Senate. Not that MA Dems don’t have dozens of other potential candidates far more prominent than Brown was just one year ago . . . .
Your enormous, obscene, defeatist error is in the thought that the way to win swing voters is to run candidates who offer little alternative to the Democrats who run the state, control the patronage, and have the familiarity and misplaced trust of the voters.
“Senator X is a worthless fool who’s been driving the nation to ruin, and if you vote for me, instead, I promise you more of the same ruinous policies.”
The truth is that the very term “moderate” is a nonsensical fiction. What does it mean? There are never any votes for “Yea,” “Nay,” or “Sorta.” A moderate, therefore, is simply someone who will switch his votes based on some unknown standard, which is what? Caving to media pressure? Influence peddling? Is such a person attractive?
There are voters out there whose issues do not neatly line up with partisan affiliations; there are also others who are easily scared off the “extremist label.” In the latter case, nominating moderates only allows the media and the political left to character to characterize other Republicans as extremist, further damaging the Republican name.
The former case is a little more tricky: it is true that cobbling majorities in less Republican states means assembling collections of issues which may not neatly align with the Republican party. However, “moderates” almost to a one, always seem to adopt the same set of issues: social radicalism with claims of fiscal conservatism. These are NOT the issue sets which most often represent populism. Rather, an unprincipled economic “conservative” usually is willing to permit socialism, so long as he can first shake down the proper donors, or create abominations like the CDO, responsible for the destruction of the U.S. economy. And the social radicalism is just to ingratiate oneself with the media, which never outlasts the primary contest.
Your strategy spells nothing other than the complete destruction of the conservative movement.
btt
Let’s get ready for a running start in 2014.
Boy, I hope you are right - seems to me from the lastest elections in VA, the writing’s on the wall.
Who is Dick Wadhams? Have never heard of him. I wasn’t impressed with the Repub state chairperson, (some female who’s name I forget but is on Fox every now and then) especially after the Allen debacle - then he turned around and hired her, I believe. Sheesh!
Wadhams is a campaign consultant. Largely credited with John Thune’s win in SD. Allen’s team brought him in with an eye on the White House (mistakes one and two). He’s one of the principle ones who gave Allen bad advice during that whole debacle. He’s since returned home to Colorado to muck things up there.
Corin - thank you for this info. It pays to know who is “behind the curtain’ in these campaigns - I have worked for a few myself - and keep score on them. Nothing cracks me up more than seeing Bob Schrum and Mark Miller? (McCain-ite) opine when they are nothing but proven failures in politics...incredible!
Oh, and add the loud mouth woman who ran Dukaka’s campaign - oh, Susan Estrich....she’s a pip and has FAILURE stamped on her forehead!
Oh, and check out a news item on AOL just posted...Webb is thinking of going Repubby!!!!!!
Yes, he must just LOVE being a senator, enough to hope the Pubs don’t mind that he voted for Obummer care...
(He did, didn’t he?)
I don’t know that Webb has publicly stated that he’d consider switching to being a Republican. It wouldn’t be his first party switch.
What I do know is that the Virginia GOP wouldn’t give him the nomination.
Is Virginia going to nominate by primary or convention in 2012?
BTW, I Googled it, and Capuano’s wife’s maiden name is spelled “Teebagy.” Close enough, I’d say.
GOP hasn't decided yet. Their annual advance is next weekend. I'm not sure though, if that's when they'll make their decision. There are factors lobbying for both options.
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