Posted on 11/09/2010 5:50:39 AM PST by Kaslin
Democrats have many more seats to defend (23-10), but several GOP moderates may be exposed to primary challenges.
The 2010 election campaign is over, but 2012 is nearly upon us. Within weeks, we will know the candidates for president, and within months, preparations will begin for the 2012 Senate races. Which Senate seats are likely to be in play? Some of this will depend on how the next Congress shakes out, as well as what retirements occur, but several senators are already in danger.
Republican in danger of general election loss:
Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) shocked the political world by winning the election to replace Ted Kennedy. He immediately became the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election in 2012. Brown has not pleased conservatives with his votes for bills like the financial reform package, but he may convince voters he’s been the independent voice he promised he’d be when they elected him to the Senate. He is strong on fund-raising, with $6 million on hand. However, Democrats have a wide array of potential candidates to hurl at Brown.
Republicans in danger of a primary or convention defeat:
Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) has served six terms and is at risk of a Tea Party challenge. Senator Lugar has made a career of being praised by Democrats, notably President Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign. Lugar could face a strong challenge from Representative-elect Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who finished second to Senator Dan Coats in the Republican Senate primary.
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also has served six terms and is also at risk of a Tea Party challenge. He does have an 89% career ACU rating, which makes him far more conservative than Lugar. However, the anti-establishment undercurrent in Utah led to the ouster of Senator Bob Bennett at the state Republican Party convention last summer. That said, Hatch has done less to rile conservatives than Bennett or Lugar. He will likely hang on to his seat unless he is opposed by rising star Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT).
Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) faces major discontent from Republicans after backing President Obama’s stimulus and supporting the Senate Finance Committee’s health care bill. A Public Policy Polling survey in September showed 63% of Maine Republicans wanted to dump Snowe, but no apparent challengers have the gravitas to win the general election. After Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christie O’Donnell’s loss, the hunger for an “anybody but Snowe” campaign may dampen.
Senator John Ensign (R-NV) has to be considered severely endangered due to a scandal surrounding an extramarital affair. Unlike the prostitution scandal involving re-elected Senator David Vitter (R-LA), Ensign’s scandal may not be easily dismissed due to the payment of $96,000 that many allege to be hush money. Nevada Republicans showed their distaste for politicians with soap opera-like family lives when they tossed out Governor Jim Gibbons (R-NV) in the Republican primary this year. Ensign is likewise vulnerable to a defeat in the primary. If he somehow makes it past the Republican primary, he’ll become a top Democratic target in the fall.
Democrats in danger of general election defeat:
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has to be considered vulnerable after the Republican wave swept the GOP into the governor’s mansion. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), as a member of the House leadership, could raise serious funds to challenge the two-term Democrat.
A poll conducted for the Daily Kos in August showed Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) with a 40% approval rating. Not great numbers for a senator running for re-election in a swing state full of strong candidates, such as former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin (R-MO).
Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly defeated former Senator Conrad Burns with 49% in 2006. While Barack Obama made Montana close with three campaign stops in 2008, the state went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004, and that may make Tester’s ObamaCare vote a big issue. The state mood may be shifting against Democrats, as Republicans captured the state House. Six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) has been discussed as a potential challenger.
After his vote for ObamaCare, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) was famously booed out of a pizza place in Nebraska. This gives an idea of how far the once-popular governor has fallen. Nelson’s support clinched the passage of ObamaCare, which is an anathema in Nebraska. Barring the mother of all Democratic wave years in 2012, Nelson is finished and may opt to retire. Possible challengers include Governor Dave Heineman and state Attorney General Jon Bruning.
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) came into office on the strength of the Democratic wave of 2006 and the unpopularity of incumbent Senator Mike DeWine. However, a PPP poll this year showed Brown with a 32% approval rating. Incoming Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor could be a good challenger, provided Governor-elect John Kasich is popular with Ohio voters.
Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) ran as a strong pro-life Democrat, but backed ObamaCare and has been a reliable Democratic vote. A PPP poll this year showed Casey with a 31% approval rating. This makes him a prime target for any of the state’s congressmen.
Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican, rode a Democratic wave to a narrow victory in 2006, but PPP found Webb trailing former Senator George Allen (R-VA) in a rematch.
Democrats in danger, if an unlikely candidate runs:
A challenge from former Governor Jeb Bush could endanger Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL).
Governor Linda Lingle passed on a challenge to state political institution Senator Daniel Inouye, but may consider a challenge to the lackluster and beatable Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HA).
Endangered independent:
Polls have shown Senator Joseph Lieberman’s (I-CT) popularity waning. Lieberman’s actions in opposing the public option on health care, but eventually supporting the final bill, have antagonized both the left and right. This leaves him in a position where re-election is highly unlikely. Look for this seat to shift to the Democrats.
Possible retirement:
After the defeat of Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) and the retirement of Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) remains the last Democrat in North Dakota’s formerly all-Democrat delegation. The North Dakota political dynamic that allowed Democrats to represent this solidly red state in Congress since 1986 may have broken down with the passage of ObamaCare. Don’t be surprised if Conrad, like Dorgan, decides to retire, which will open the seat for one of the state’s ambitious statewide officeholders.
The bottom line? Both parties have worries, but Democrats have more of them, as they hold 23 of the 33 seats up in 2012.
But that's only his most positive quality.
We can only hope!
Interesting points about the Kennedys. I still would not rule them out completely - this is MA after all. If I was a betting man, I'd say The Coupe goes for it, maybe Steve Lynch.
Any way you slice it, I think Brown's done.
I think that Senators Sherod Brown, Debbie Stabenow, Ben Nelson, and Bill Nelson will win. In 2006, they got 56%, 57%, 64%, and 61%, respectively. Conrad and Kohl will choose to retire, and Republicans will win. Tester, Webb, and McCaskill will lose. I agree that Scott Brown will lose. Republicans will have a net gain of four seats.
I'll second that. I've heard those other names, too, and any of them would be A-Ok with me.
I think McCotter thought he had no other choice. It could come back to hurt him, I don't know. I've met him a couple of times (not since the bailout, though) I like him. I love watching him on Red Eye.
Okay. We'll have to put up with Graham until 2014. That means Snowe and Hatch will hit the pavement before he does.
When can we kick out that Collins creep?
Williams would be awesome. Most anyone but KBH!
Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) "has not pleased conservatives"?
In the Socialist People's Republic of Massachusetts?
And Ted Kennedy's Far Left agenda pleased us to no end?
This is like the trapped Chilean miners not being pleased with the food that they got through the 4 inch shaft and threatening a hunger strike because they insist on getting a whole 65 pound pig set down the four inch tube to them for a proper pig pickin'.
You know what can keep the Far Left in power in a country that is NOT Far Left?
This type of idiocy:
"OMG! Scott Brown is a ....gasp! ... RINO!!! Let's defeat him in the Massachusetts Republican primary with a true conservative! Then, if we really belive in fairies, Tinker Belle won't die and a true conservative can get elected Senator in the the Socialist People's Republic of Massachusetts!"
This is what America looks like, politically, state by state. The lighter the color the more liberal the state:
Massachusetts is the fourth most liberal states in the union. A true conservative cannot get elected as a Senator of Massachusetts any more than a Nancy Pelosi left-winger can get elected Senator of Mississippi.
If you are going to race mammals, you do not race a killer whale against a camel in the Sahara Desert and you do not race a giraffe against a dolphin in the Atlantic Ocean.
A Scott Brown moderate is as far right as you can possibly get into the Senate in the Socialist People's Republic of Massachusetts and, in spite of the fact that he is to the left of us on Free Republic, Scott Brown put the brakes on the runaway Obama agenda by replacing Ted Kennedy.
In the most optimistic surveys, conservatives number only 40% of all voters and are as rare as penguins in Hawaii in some states such as Massachusetts. The other 800 pound electoral gorilla in American politics are the Moderates that are almost as numerous as the conservatives.
In order to defeat the Far Left Obama agenda, whether we like it or not, simple arithmetic dictates that we need the Moderates on our side. The only place that you do not need Moderates are those dark green states on the map.
Conservative Candidate in Dark Green State = Shoo In (Jim DeMint)
Conservative Candidate in Mid Green State = Maybe yes (Marco Rubio) - Maybe no (Sharron Angle, Joe Miller)
Conservative Candidate in Light Green State = Splattered Bug on a Windshield (Christine O'Donnell)
In light green states, such as Delaware, if you insist on cramming a conservative candidate down a moderate-at-best electorate, you are going to be flattened like a bug in the 60% to 40% range, just like Christine O'Donnell was flattened in the 2008 Delaware Senate race by the liberal Joe Biden by a margin of 64.7% to 35.3% and was flattened yet again in the 2010 Delaware Senate race by the liberal Chris Coons by a margin of 56.6% to 40.0%.
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you might find
You get what you need
Brown will NOT lose. He has a $6 million warchest, and high approval ratings (55% approval to 18% disapproval).
BTTT
No to Foley vs Lieberman.
McMahon for me. And I cannot see the DEM losing unless Lieberman is the GOP nominee. A 3-way race keeps the libs united and splits the GOP vote. The Indies in CT are GOP voters and many would go for JOE.
Lindsey Graham isn't up for re-election until 2014.
Very good analysis. Brown may yet win; I wouldn’t count him out.
The problem is how to dissuade candidates from running (especially since they could ask “why doesn’t the other conservative drop out instead?”). The best way to avoid having a liberal sneak into a nomination with divided conservative opposition is if you require a run-off when no one gets 50%+1 (or maybe when no one gets 40%+1, which is what NC does). That way Snyder would have had to face off against Hoekstra (who finished second), and Schwarz would have had to face off against whichever conservative finished second in 2004 (it may have been Walberg, but maybe not).
“I think that Senators Sherod Brown, Debbie Stabenow, Ben Nelson, and Bill Nelson will win. In 2006, they got 56%, 57%, 64%, and 61%, respectively.”
I hope you’re right, but I’m by no means optimistic about his chances. As popular as Scott Brown may be right now he will still have to face a first-tier Democrat in 2012, and in a presidential election year Democrat turnout will be huge. Had Perry and Hudek won House seats last week I wouold be more bullish, but the fact that neither the GOP gubernatorial candidate nor any of its congressional candidates managed to break 44% makes me think that Brown’s victory last January was a fluke.
How much bearing do you think the presidential primary and resulting candidates will have on the Senate race results in 2012?
Obama will not generate the grassroots excitement he got in 2008. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the economic situation, he may have lost independent voters for good. Someone besides Obama may generate renewed excitement for Democrats and Indies, notoriously fickle, may decide the new person deserves a shot.
On the GOP side, it’s vital that the candidate be one that is supported by the Tea Party and like-minded conservatives. But it’s also vital that the person be one of impeccable integrity with a lengthy executive and leadership experience resume. No more Barack Hussein Obamas-m..m..m..
2014 will be another mid-term and like 2010 will probably be a referendum on the party in power which will hopefully be the GOP. So they better not blow it.
First tier? Like Deval Patrick? Martha Coakley again? Tim Murray? Bill Galvin? Joe DeNucci? Barney Frank? Nikki Tsongas? John Olver? Ed Markey? Am I missing someone?
Tim Cahill maybe, but I don’t see him winning the nom after running against Patrick.
I got it:
Rep. Mike Capuano. Not only is he a mobster, but he also already lost to Coakley. And get this: his wife’s maiden name is TEABAGGY.
No kidding.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.