Huge Losses for Dems in the South; GOP Surges in Midwest

Pajamas Media ^ | November 3, 2010 | Rich Baehr

[Kaslin]

Massive gains by the GOP from top to bottom augur well for redistricting and the 2012 presidential race.

A few liberal media talking heads are saying today that the Republicans fell short yesterday, since the Democrats held onto control of the Senate. This summary of what happened reminds me of the old joke about the match race during the Cold War between a Russian horse and an American horse. The American horse wins the race easily, and in the next day’s Pravda, the headline is: “Russian horse second, American horse next to last.”

Yes, the Democrats survived and appear to have lost “only” six Senate seats, while losing as many as 65 House seats (and control of the House) and many important governor’s races. That is a big victory for Republicans and conservatives. That said, here are my conclusions from the outcomes across the country.

1. The GOP slaughtered the Democrats in the South. Most of the Blue Dogs in the House, whether they voted for the health care bill or against it, went down. In the states that will gain House seats due to the 2010 census numbers, the GOP had big wins in the governor’s races in Florida, Georgia and Texas, and Republicans appear to have taken control of the state legislature in North Carolina.

2. After an Obama sweep of the Midwest in 2008 (Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (they are in the Big Ten after all), the GOP found its footing and made major gains in the region. States in the Midwest are often the decisive swing states in close presidential races, and the GOP performance yesterday in the region augurs well for the 2012 campaign, probably beginning as I write this.

Democrats appear to have held onto the governorship in Illinois and won the governor’s race in Minnesota, each by less than 1%. But the GOP picked up governorships in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and won an open Senate seat by a big margin in Indiana. GOP House gains were enormous in the Midwest, especially in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois.

Illinois, which had become a deep blue state in recent cycles, now has a U.S. House delegation that favors Republicans by 11-8. The GOP gains in state houses and legislatures will be important in Congressional redistricting since these states will, in many cases, lose House seats when district lines are redrawn.

3. A few of the candidates most strongly identified with the Tea Party had a bad night in key competitive Senate races. Talk radio hosts like Mark Levin had trumpeted Christine O’Donnell, Joe Miller, Ken Buck, and Sharron Angle. At times they had been verbally abusive towards those who argued that some of these candidates were far less electable than the candidates they beat in the GOP primaries.

O’Donnell was beaten by 17%, and Sharron Angle lost by 6% to Harry Reid in a state with 14% unemployment and with Reid sporting the lowest approval ratings of his career. Ken Buck lost in Colorado by a few points, and in Alaska, Joe Miller trails write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski by over 5%, a lead that might hold up, even after badly spelled Murkowski ballots are disqualified.

Each of the four Republican candidates damaged their chances by allowing themselves to become the issue, rather than having their campaigns focus like a laser on the Obama/Pelosi/Reid fiscal disaster in Washington. On the other hand, GOP Senate candidates with little or no baggage and very focused campaigns picked up Senate seats in very hard-fought contests in Illinois and Pennsylvania. They also won big victories in Ohio, Arkansas, North Dakota, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Wisconsin.

The Tea Party had a big role in some of these victories, especially in Wisconsin for Ron Johnson, and in Florida for Marco Rubio. The Tea Party candidates who lost seemed not quite ready for prime time. Odd personal histories, attacks on homosexuality, and prior policy statements that were hard to explain all proved pretty damaging. In New York State, no GOP candidate was likely to win the Senate or governor’s races this year, but the candidates nominated in the primaries were so weak and problematic that it cost the GOP some House seats down-ballot. Weirdness, it seems, is not a path to statewide electoral victories.

4. It is a major achievement for the GOP to have picked up six Senate seats (seven including Scott Brown in January). In 2012, there will be 24 Democratic held seats up and fewer than half that many for the GOP. To repeal or significantly modify the health care reform bill, the GOP needs to win control of the Senate in 2012, hold the House, and win the White House. The GOP can not afford to squander winnable Senate seats in defense of ideological purity. A winnable Delaware U.S. Senate seat was tossed away this year, and if the same tack is taken, Maine could be lost in 2012.

5. The winning issue for the GOP this year was the mismanagement of the economy — the Democrats’ failure to create jobs, the wasteful spending, and the health care bill rammed down the country’s throat on a party line vote with a solid majority of the country opposing the legislation. GOP House and Senate candidates who stayed on message had a good night.

6. The Democrats still rule in a few places. The Democrats swept all the Massachusetts House races, though a few were competitive for the first time in two decades. Deval Patrick won re-election. In Connecticut, while the governor’s race is too close to call, Democrat did win all the other major races. In New York, the GOP picked up five House seats, nothing to sneer at, but the Democrats won the two Senate races and the governor’s race by 25% or more in each case.

In California, well-funded GOP candidates for the U.S. Senate and state governorship lost decisively. In Washington State and Oregon white voters are becoming more like Californians in their voting pattern. Dino Rossi in Washington and Chris Dudley in Oregon are likely to lose close races despite valiant efforts.

7. Nate Silver’s critique of robo-pollsters, especially those who do not call cell phone numbers, was borne out. Rasmussen was off by 3-4% on many calls. Also, the Gallup generic ballot forecast, quite accurate in prior off-year cycles, proved way too high this year (forecasting a 10-15% GOP margin ). The GOP will win the national popular vote for House races by close to 7%. While not 10% or 15%, it is nonetheless a remarkable turnaround from a near 10% Democratic win in House races in 2008.

8. In several key states for the presidential contest in 2012 such as Colorado and Nevada, Hispanics voted heavily for the Democrats. The GOP did better with Hispanics in New Mexico, Texas, and Florida. If the GOP can lead with a sensible, balanced immigration plan (not the Tom Tancredo approach and certainly not amnesty), there is opportunity here for the Republicans and conservatives.

There are now two Hispanic Republican governors and no Hispanic Democratic governors. Marco Rubio is a near certain future national leader for the GOP (you want to see a Reaganesque positive conservative victory speech, watch this). Two African American Republicans were elected to Congress. The only two Asian American governors in the country are Republican. It is going to be a lot harder to tag the GOP as the white party when it is the only party running minority candidates statewide and winning.

And by the way, wasn’t it disturbing that the crowds at the Stewart/Colbert rally were overwhelmingly white?

9. There are several near bankrupt states in America — California, New York, and Illinois, most prominent. Democrats look like they will be running all of them. I think Chris Christie in New Jersey is likely to come off as far more competent than Andrew Cuomo, Jerry Brown, or Pat Quinn in addressing these huge state budget disasters.

10. Let’s hope that the 2012 elections will require some more Pravda-like commentary the day after from the mainstream media.

[nhwingut]

Obama had such huge majorities in the House and Senate and across state houses that he thought he could do anything... and live to tell about it.

Wrong. Payback is a beetch.

[oilfieldtrash]

Maybe better this way. If things hit the skids, the GOP wont be totally responsible.

[Jvette]

Idiots.

They ignore the fact that there were far more Republican seats up than Democratic. The Republicans did not lose a single seat while the Dems lost at least 6. The seats the Dems held onto are in deep blue places excluding the one in Nevada where Reid managed to win due to the immigrant and union influence in the south where the bulk of the populace resides.

[Major Matt Mason]

I think taking back the White House in 2012 is a real possibility. The bloom is off the rose as far as Obama goes. He will not get the support of independent voters again, and they are the ones that put him over the top.

[grumpygresh]

“After an Obama sweep of the Midwest in 2008 (Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (they are in the Big Ten after all)”

We can form the Republican Football Conference from the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12. We might have to kick out CO though.

[RetiredArmy]

HELLO, HELLO, HELLO!! Have I got your attention there Rick? ALABAMA smashed the dims right out of existence. The republicans TOOK OVER THE STATE LEGISLATURE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 136 YEARS!! Forget NC’s puny 100 years. We kept the republican governor's chair. Took AWAY the Lt Gov chair from the former gov and two time Lt Gov, Jim Folsom. They control the House and Senate by a good margin. We have the Atty Gen, Sec of State, chairs also. Both US senators are republicans. Republicans now dominate our congressional critters. I think it is 7 of 9 are now republicans. Hey, the MOST CONSERVATIVE state in this country, JUST WENT MORE CONSERVATIVE!!! My local house and senate guys are republicans also. The former speaker of the state house, a dim, went down in flames! Don't ignore the conservative leader there Rick (author of the article).

[stefanbatory]

The major piece of info here in the article that has so far been largely ignored - aside from the state legislature massacres for the dems - is the fact that 24 dem senate seats are up in 2012.

[Kaslin]

You said it

[Jvette]

Yes. The next two years will be interesting.

[Liz]

Obama won with huge majorities in the Congress----with Dems controlling statehouses----that he thought he could do anything........

My all-time fave post-Nov 2 comment: "Freshmen Congressmen who got into office through the calculated machinations of Rahm Emanuel are ALL GONE."

ROTFL.

As nhwingut wrote: PAYBACK IS A BEETCH This sucker Rahm duped the voters over and over---on Nov 2 they told him they were onto him.

It's a good thing Rahm was kicked out of the WH before Nov 2.

2012 OHAHA IS NEXT TO FEEL THE LASH OF THE VOTERS Rahm had 2008 Marxist candidate Ohaha saying things like, "I want to be another Reagan."

And voters bought it......then.

[Liz]

Dems have to be kicking themselves. Their worst night since 1928. They had it all. And blew it........thanks to Obama's "bitter clinging" to his healthcare debacle.

Democrats' suffered dramatic defeats at every level of government, in Washington, and beyond. Sweeping setbacks on Capitol Hill and the loss of multi-state governorships even in left-leaning states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. They even lost Illinois, a Dem bastion (home to Ohaha and his WH crew).

Repubs flipped at least 14 chambers, and have unified control of 25 state legislatures Fifty five state chambers are controlled by Repubs with a win of 500 Republican legislators.....100 in NH alone. In Maine, the Repubs have a trifecta---they control the governorship and both houses.

" Holy Allah. Illinois? Gone? That little twerp Rahm.
Him and his permanent Democrat majority."

[ModelBreaker]

“The GOP can not afford to squander winnable Senate seats in defense of ideological purity.”

Nor can the GOP nominate folks like Christ and Graham, who will vote with the rats on issues like repealing obamacare and cap and trade and reducing the deficit and filibustering judges.

Power without the ability to do anything useful is meaningless. Actually, worse than meaningless. R defectors are used by the old media to trumpet the bipartisanship of socialist measures.

[ModelBreaker]

“...sensible, balanced immigration plan...”

In other words, vote for amnesty in return for a promise of border security and enforcement, which promise will be broken the way it has always been broken. Nope. I will not support amnesty republicans. Period.

Build the fence, enforce the border. Call me in twenty years when the ruling class has demonstrated that it will actually do these things on a sustained basis.

Dress that up in all the ribbons and nice-nice bows you want.

One suggestion. Most conservatives I know are not angry at illegals. They are angry at our ruling class for deliberately not enforcing the border and deliberately ignoring enforcement of existing laws for decades. Put the dialog and anger where it belongs—on democrats and amnesty republicans. Illegals are just doing what the dems and amnesty republicans want them to do—cross the border.

I think Angle’s add that focused on illegals was a mistake. It should have focused on the lack of a fence, on the lack of enforcement and the bad choices our rulers have made in that regard.

[stephenjohnbanker]

” 2012 OHAHA IS NEXT TO FEEL THE LASH OF THE VOTERS Rahm had 2008 Marxist candidate Ohaha saying things like, “I want to be another Reagan.”

And voters bought it......then. “

Well, the voters just wholesaled Obama for $1.75 ;-)

[mrsmel]

Exactly. What do they think conservatives vote for Republicans for, to go enact rat policy? I know we have to smooth the corners a bit in general elections, but I sure get tired of some Republicans acting like we want Republicans in the majority just for the sake of having Republicans there, and not for a reason.

[Zionist Conspirator]

Unfortunately, the inability to take the Senate means that chamber can kill whatever good the House proposes to do.

[tickles]

I know people who have come in a illegals and who actually straightened out their papers and eventually gained citizenship. I do understand the problems in their home countries that make them come here to improve their lives. But even my friends who are now citizens wonder why no ID is required to vote? as they say, that’s just not right.

Ending the illegal problem will take time but it can be done, not by stuffing them all in buses or planes and returning them en mass but by enforcing the border, FINING their employers (especially the big ones, Hormel comes to mind) and not giving them any assistance for housing and health care. Does that mean they’ll all leave? Nope, cause many of them have what many of our young people and many of our older adults don’t, they have the willingness to work their butts off to earn the money that they do. It’s one reason that processing companies hire them. Our poor are to used to the gubermint giving them stuff, Mexican’s really aren’t.

So I guess I’m saying there will be no easy quick fix, but enforce our border laws and crack down on employers as a start. There may be enough unemployed workers who really do want to work now that they will take those nasty jobs.

[Aetius]

Mexicans may not come here thinking about the govt goodies they will get, but who is going to look a gift horse in the mouth? It’s the same with racial preferences; they may not come here thinking about that at all, but I’m sure they would be thrilled if their children got a preference over white kids when competing for college.

And as long as mass immigration continues (legal included), then the customer base for things conservatives abhor (like expanding govt and racial preferences) will grow, and therefore the political power of those pushing such things will grow, thus making it all the more difficult to get rid of such things.

[Aetius]

Not the Tancredo approach, and not amnesty you say. Well, either illegals will go home (through a combination of deportation, attrition through enforcement, or other factors), or they will stay. If they stay, they will most likely get a path to citizenship (who knows, maybe Sotomayor and Kagan will give it to them), and that is amnesty.

And for all the demonization of Tancredo as an extremist (sadly echoed by many Republicans suffering from the delusion that the GOP can win the Hispanic vote if only we got rid of the ‘bigots’ in the party...that they are accepting the Left’s definition of a bigot never seems to dawn on them), it would be interesting to take his positions on immigration and poll the American people on them.

Tancredo supports reducing legal immigration (something rarely discussed but necessary if the GOP is to avoid demographic destruction). Guess what? Americans have consistently expressed majority or plurality support for the same. Sometimes support for maintaining current levels takes the top spot, but support for reducing legal immigration is always higher than support for increasing legal immigration. Support for increase is far and away the most fringe position. Yet incredibly many powerful Republicans favor increasing legal immigration, which sadly is the same thing as increasing the pace of the party’s march to the grave.

Tancredo supports a combination of deportation and attrition through enforcement to deal with illegals currently here, and much tougher border security and sanctions against employers to stop future illegal immigration. Well, the public overwhelmingly agrees about border security and interior enforcement, while the question of how to deal with present illegals is trickier to gauge public opinion. How the question is asked greatly influences the outcome, but the attrition strategy is a very mainstream position.

So Tancredo’s conservative views on immigration are actually very mainstream, and often majority views in America. The question is whether or not an agenda of conservative immigration reform and those leading it could avoid being demonized as anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic, racist xenophobes?

The answer to that is no, and that is a sad commentary on the state of public discourse.