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Posted on 11/04/2010 5:54:24 AM PDT by markomalley
For the first time in two cycles, Democrats will have more seats up for grabs than the Republicans, and the party could see its shrunken majority erased altogether.
Several of the senators up for reelection came in on the 2006 Democratic wave, when the party picked up six GOP seats and won control of the chamber.
Sens. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) defeated GOP incumbents that year but will have to win reelection in 2012.
And two senators who won special elections Tuesday, Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), will face voters again in two years.
Democrats lost at least six Senate seats Tuesday, with results in Washington and Alaska undetermined as of press time, but they retained control.
That could change in two years, when Democrats have 21 seats up for grabs, compared to only 10 for Republicans. Also up for reelection are Sens. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (Vt.), the two Independents who caucus with Democrats — meaning the party has a total of 23 seats to defend.
“The numbers are really working against them, no question about it,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior Senate analyst at The Cook Political Report. “It will come down to what it always comes down to: retirements and recruiting.”
Many of those Democratic seats up next cycle are in purple or red states, including those of McCaskill, Manchin, Tester, Webb and Sens. Kent Conrad (N.D.), Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Bill Nelson (Fla.).
Webb saw several House Democrats in his state lose reelection Tuesday, and McCaskill saw her party lose a Senate pickup opportunity when Roy Blunt (R) won retiring Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) seat.
Some senators could opt to retire in 2012. Among those observers will be watching are Ben Nelson and Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.).Nelson is expected to face a difficult race, and Kohl saw his home-state colleague, Sen. Russ Feingold (D), lose on Tuesday.
Casey and Conrad also saw Democratic colleagues lose in their home states on Tuesday. And Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who’s up in 2012, watched fellow California Democrat Barbara Boxer fend off a tough challenge from the GOP.
“It is certainly true that the landscape will be tilted in 2012 in terms of the seats at risk,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report. “[Democrats] will be defending more seats, so they could have more losses. On the other hand, it depends on the mood of the public.”
The other Democratic incumbents up next cycle are Daniel Akaka (Hawaii), Tom Carper (Del.), Jeff Bingaman (N.M.), Maria Cantwell (Wash.), Ben Cardin (Md.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Debbie Stabenow (Mich.).
The 10 GOP senators facing reelection are John Barrasso (Wyo.), Scott Brown (Mass.), Bob Corker (Tenn.), John Ensign (Nev.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), Jon Kyl (Ariz.), Richard Lugar (Ind.), Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Roger Wicker (Miss.).
Of that list, the only senator who could be considered in a “dangerous” position is Brown, who represents Massachusetts, a blue state.
Hutchison could retire. She ran for Texas governor in 2010 but lost in the GOP primary. At the time, Hutchison hinted she could resign her seat; she never committed to running again in 2012.
Ensign could leave the Senate if he faces charges stemming from the fallout of an affair he had with a former staffer.
An unknown factor for the Republicans is the Tea Party. The grassroots movement took down several party favorites in GOP primaries this year and has threatened to do the same next cycle.
Already, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), a Tea Party favorite, has said he’d consider challenging Hatch in the 2012 GOP primary.
Additionally, Republicans could always be doomed on pocketbook issues. If the economy rebounds, President Obama could be credited in the eyes of some voters. If it stays sluggish, voters could blame the GOP.
The top three Senate Democrats launched a strategy on that front on Wednesday, putting Republicans on notice that they expected cooperation now that the minority party is more powerful.
“We have made the message very clear that we want to work with Republicans,” said Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). “If they’re unwilling to work with us, there’s not a thing we can do about that, but the American people can see that like a very slow curveball.”
Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, notes that the Republican revolution of 1994, ushered in by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), dealt a major blow to President Clinton — though Clinton won reelection in 1996.
“My thesis is, we’re going to have a miserable two years, but this time not all the blame will go to the president,” Gans said. “Nobody knows what the climate will be in 2012.”
Rothenberg agreed, saying much depends on the messaging and issues that will dominate the political landscape over the next two years.
“There’s probably not likely to be as stark of a choice in 2012 as this year — however, it’s also true that most people think the president’s party runs things. It’s not as easy for Democrats to just say, ‘They share responsibility, too.’ ”
He has to go even further left if he wants to get reelected.
Does not look good for Mr. Brown from here, but the polls say he is the most popular politician in the Commonwealth.
What happens in Blue States is that Republican candidates are so demonized that they are not likely to win.
But when they do win- examples- Pataki, Giuliani, Cristie, Reagan, many others, when the public sees the real governance, and not the defamation from the Democrats and the media, they become popular enough to win again.
Brown is popular and may fit that template.
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They still will in Memphis! Along with the nursing home patients to senile to know what they are signing.
This article explains one reason why the Democrats will never allow the current President to be their nominee.
They just can’t risk having another election like this one.
By not winning as big as expected (to some pundits) Pres. Obama and the Dems think they continue on as normal. They don't think that America is ‘that’ upset with them. This response of no change will cause Americans to stay angry or even get more angry. If this continues I believe we will definitely keep the house in 2012 (probably picking up even more seats. Maybe not as much as 2010, but still a lot).
I also think that the lack of understanding by Pres Obama and the Dems will give us the Senate in 2012. We were close in 2010 and picked up 6 (maybe 7) seats. I believe more Dem seats are up in 2012 and we could probably pick up enough to get a majority.
That leaves us with the Presidency. This one will be extremely tough. I see no easy road with this regardless of how He preforms. But, If He ignores America enough there might be a chance we can win the Presidency as well (only if we run a good candidate of course).
With all this being said, you can see that if it plays out like this we could possibly have complete control of Congress and the Presidency in 2012. This would give us free reign to repeal Obamacare and stop spending completely.
There you go folks. This is my reasons (at least to myself) why it's a good thing that we didn't absolutely destroy them (we did destroy them, I know. I'm talking +100 house +10 Senate) election. I wanted the house and the senate Tues. I was furious on Wednesday that we did not get both. Thinking it over and praying about it, this is what I see could happen as a result of the results. Take it for what it's worth, but count me optimistic.
Oh, please, please, please, let Debbie Stabenow finally be gone in 2012.
“HI,”
dont count out HI yet
if Lingle decides to run and the 2012 climate is at least a neutral year she could win
democrats are blind to the fact that they owned the whole Congress in ‘06 and ‘08. There was a cartoon in the Houston Comical yesterday about the economy being wrecked by Republicans. They are still saying “it’s George Bush’s fault!”.
Of that list, the only senator who could be considered in a “dangerous” position is Brown, who represents Massachusetts, a blue state.
I disagree a bit with the author. I think Ensign is vulnerable due to potential fallout from that scandal, and Corker might be a little vulnerable simply because he won by a razor-thin margin in 2006 and hasn't really been a prominent figure in the Senate.
The biggest problem the GOP has in New Jersey is that the kind of candidate who can mount a winning Republican campaign in this state -- a tough, no-nonsense person who doesn't care what the media may think about him/her -- is the kind of person who has no interest in serving in the U.S. Senate. Other than Christie, we have had some of the dullest, most marginal people on the planet win statewide races in New Jersey in recent years. I'll offer Jim McGreevey, Jon Corzine, Frank Lautenberg and Christy Whitman as perfect examples of this.
2012 will be a whole different story, as this article demonstrates. In that cycle, the number of seats up for election will be overwhelmingly held by sitting Democrats, which makes their job that much harder -- especially if the economy is still in poor shape by then and Obama is a very unpopular figure.
If the House does nothing about voter fraud it is two steps forward one back.. maybe two back..
Looking at that list there is an opportunity to cull some RINOs from the Republican side
Lugar will be tough to take out here in Indiana.
I think he’s looked at like McCain was in AZ.
But he’ll be 80 yrs old. Time to hang it up, Dick.
AND...... since the T-P Caucus is growing, growing, GROWING(even in Mass.)... (Jaws theme)
All the TP newbies can start reverse engineering the federal government..
Exactly. Get back to smaller government.
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