Posted on 11/03/2010 5:56:25 AM PDT by Colofornian
LAS VEGAS — At polling places across Nevada Tuesday, researchers conducting exit polls asked voters one fundamental question about Harry Reid: Do you approve or disapprove of the way he has handled his job as senator? The results were terrible for the Senate Majority Leader. Fifty-five percent of voters disapproved of the job he has done, while 44 percent approved. Such numbers might seem a sure indicator of defeat, and yet by Tuesday night, Reid was leading his supporters in a victory celebration.
The exit pollsters also asked whether Reid, running for a fifth term in the Senate, has been in Washington too long. Fifty-five percent of voters said yes, while 41 percent said no. And still Reid won.
It's long been common knowledge here that many, many Nevadans don't like their senior senator. What Tuesday's exit polls showed was that their feelings go well beyond simple dislike. And yet, if the exit polls are correct, a significant number of people voted to re-elect a man they think isn't doing a good job and who has stayed too long in the Senate. In the end, Reid won 50.2 percent of the vote to Republican challenger Sharron Angle's 44.6 percent.
It would be hard to find a more telling measure of Angle's deficiencies as a candidate or the devastating effectiveness of Reid's scorched-earth negative campaign against her. Funded by millions of dollars from public-sector unions, Reid relentlessly attacked Angle from the moment she won the GOP nomination. Many of the earliest attacks went unanswered, forming impressions of Angle so negative that they outweighed the voters' negative opinion of Reid.
And then there was Reid's organizational strength. Both Reid and Angle held their election-night parties in Las Vegas casinos, Reid in the new Aria complex and Angle at the Venetian. That's nothing out of the ordinary in Nevada, but the difference between them was that Reid was entirely at home, with the enormous financial power and organizing muscle of the gambling industry and its union allies in his corner, while Angle was relying on votes from people who live far from Las Vegas. Republicans across the country who were hoping for a miracle in this race discovered that raw power wins the day.
And bending the rules, too. On election day there were reports that casino giant Harrah's had worked with the Reid campaign and the unions, particularly the Culinary Workers Union, to herd virtually all unionized employees to early voting stations to vote for Reid. According to a report in National Review Online, one Reid staffer told Harrah's officials that he would do anything -- for emphasis, he wrote it ANYTHING -- to get those workers to the polls.
By mid-day Tuesday, the Nevada Republican Party had filed a complaint with the Secretary of State's office. "Employees' votes were being tracked and supervisors were instructed by top management to personally confront employees to find out why they had not voted," the complaint said. "Further, the evidence shows that Harrah's management has continually communicated to employees their concern with electing Harry Reid and not just to ensure that the employees voted for the candidates of their choice." Such conduct, the complaint argued, violates Nevada law.
Democrats denied any such violations. And the fact is, Reid won by about 40,000 votes, a margin difficult to explain by charges of fraud. Also, squabbling over alleged irregularities tended to obscure the enormous advantage that open union support gave Reid. Nationally, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees spent $91 million trying to elect Democrats. A good chunk of that went to Reid, mostly for get-out-the-vote operations.
Even though they are not a huge part of the electorate, unions gave Reid an important edge. Exit pollsters found that 18 percent of voters had a union member in their household, while 82 percent didn't. The voters who didn't have a union member in the household split right down the middle between Reid and Angle, 48 percent to 48 percent. But among those who did have a union member in their household, Reid won 67 percent to 29 percent.
Every single aspect of the Reid campaign was organized to the max. "For people willing to volunteer, there's a free lunch afterward in the cafeteria," Reid staffers told people waiting in line to see First Lady Michelle Obama at a Reid rally on Monday. Everyone at the rally was given a sheet of paper with the phone numbers of people, presumably Democrats, to call and urge to vote. Speakers at the rally said they wanted to create the "biggest phone bank in the country," which sounded like an exaggeration but did indicate how much emphasis Reid put on getting in touch with voters.
When it comes to Angle's troubled campaign, one last statistic tells the story. The exit pollsters asked voters whether they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic and Republican parties. Among those who said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic party, Reid won 93 percent of the vote. Of those who said they had a favorable opinion of the Republican party, Angle won 82 percent. Reid did a better job winning Democrats than Angle did winning Republicans.
So in the end, there was Reid onstage at the Aria, smiling as his supporters chanted HAR-EEE! HAR-EEE! HAR-EEE! Never terribly popular, for the last two years, he had defied the voters of his state as he pushed Barack Obama's unpopular agenda through the Senate. And as he did so, unemployment in Nevada climbed to 14.4 percent, the highest in the nation. It was no wonder, then, that a majority of the Nevadans who went to the polls Tuesday disapproved of the way Reid has done his job. The wonder was that he got away with it.
Some of it is because of which states had ‘Rat Senators. A lot of urban states with large liberal constituancies, like New York, Washington state, and California are examples of this.
In a way, we’ve reverted to the red vs. blue electoral maps of the Bush campaigns (regardless of which color one prefers to apply). This election was more about restoring balance and common sense than it was about Republican revival. One should note that a large number of the ‘Rat casualties were of the Classes of 2006 and 2008, often in districts that had supported John McCain and George W. Bush.
Indeed. Not many house districts gained didn’t vote Bush in 2004.
Let’s see. NH-2, NY-25, PA-11, MN-8, IL-17, CA-20, FL-22, WI-8.
Make that WI-7 not 8.
“Indeed. Not many house districts gained didn’t vote Bush in 2004.
Let’s see. NH-2, NY-25, PA-11, MN-8, IL-17, CA-20, FL-22, WI-8.”
Sorry, I hadn’t gotten to that post yet.
I was gonna double check those PA seats but the site I use, CQ has merged with rollcall and they changed the site, don’t see their almanac up. Annoying.
You should buy Barone’s Almanac of American Politics (if it’s too rich for your blood, you can probably get a used edition of the 2010 or at least the 2008 Almanac cheap).
My sister lives in NV, always votes Republican, a very anti-abortion and anti-illegal ex-military conservative and she emailed me this yesterday:” Sharron Angle made an ass of herself with her comments here too. She said something like she can't tell the difference between Asians and Mexicans to a group of Hispanic high schoolers. The libs all listened to Reids negative ads about her. They all think she's nuts. “
This video of Angle in elementary school to a hispanic kid was played over and over in NV and MSNBC. But probably not on talk radio or FNC. Angle really blew this.
The Demographics in this country are changing where Republicans cant afford to see rallying liberals (Democrat Hispanics) to vote as a success. It might be a necessary evil of rallying conservatives, but it doesnt help to rally them. I commented the other day: Republicans need a strategy to de-rally Democrat Hispanics. which I gave examples of how to do. Or this is just going to get worse.
Yeah, I can’t find the CQ Almanac either. If you locate it, please let me know. ; )
RCP has a decent one, but they don’t have ALL the districts listed last time I looked.
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