Posted on 11/01/2010 5:59:08 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Yup, the guys at Freedomist and The Conservative Journal continue to imply that an O'Donnell win is not all that unlikely. They say that all these polls that show her trailing by double digits, are using outdated poll assumptions and inaccurate numbers.. Read for yourself. As the saying goes, 'We report...you decide'!
The invincible juggernaut, Chris Coons, in the Delaware Senate Race may be more vulnerable to a Christine ODonnell win in tomorrows special Delaware Election than previously thought. A number of factors reveal the polls being publicized may be based on outdated assumptions about the voter make-up that will show up in tomorrows election for the Delaware Senate Seat once held by Vice President Joe Biden.
Our polling for this race has largely shown a result thats more favorable to ODonnell, though recent polling by Tea Party Express has corroborated our 6-point ODonnell deficit. Polls that give Coons a lead of 18, 19, and 20 points are, much like in the case of the California races, using inaccurate numbers to represent the composition of voters.
I dont have a dog in this fight (and no, I do not think COD is a dog!) But is the dem base pumped up?
In the Brown election last winter, no one was pumped up for Coakley—but the Brownies were pumped up like the O’Donnell camp. However, I think a lot of folks stayed home because elections in MA usually don’t mean anything—the communists put up their candidates and its over.
Need to que the Jaws theme.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2614958/posts?page=3#15
“Heres something I wrote on Sunday, predicting the exact number of the TCJ poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2613657/posts?q=1&;page=1
Since the number is 6, I assume that its the TCJ poll, which will be showing growth in Christines numbers by one, every time they release a new poll.”
I wrote that a week ago, when TCJ “confirmed” that they were just adding 1 to Christines numbers every time they were taking a “poll”.
How was I able to predict the outcome of the TCJ polls 2 polls in a row? They aren’t taking polls at all, maybe, just feeding us numbers that we like?
“The problem is, if ODonnell wins, it will almost certainly be by a razor-thin margin.”
DE has no history of crooked elections. And you can’t just create a template for it in a single cycle.
We can cross that bridge later if in fact she doesn’t beat him like she did Castle (by 6) which is very possible.
Dick Morris mentioned the mistake of using the 2008 turnout model on Hannity tonight. I would love to hear Christine O’Donnell wins.
Those are “predictions”.
Not polls.
Someones just making them up.
“How was I able to predict the outcome of the TCJ polls 2 polls in a row? They arent taking polls at all, maybe, just feeding us numbers that we like?”
How do we know PPP or Hays research or FDU aren’t doing it? All you have to do is use a turnout model that achieves your desired result and just plug the numbers in. Monmouth, FDU and even Rasmussen are way off because the turnout model is deeply flawed.
That is entirely correct.
If you want to get a better understanding of a state,
take a look at the voter registration, 47d 29r in DEs case, take a look at what people are predicting in terms of turnout, and take a look at the polls, and who they think are going to vote.
Many pollsters do not have “tsunami” numbers built into their turnout in the specific states. The FDU poll basically had it roughly equivalent to registered voters.
Yes, voter turnout will be significant.
CC will win.
..Maher. If O'Donnell wins his head will explode. She will have gone from a guest on his dopey show to the US Senate. He will have gone nowhere.
Single-digits means that it will be all about which side gets more people to show up at the polls. Five percent is margin-of-error territory.
http://www.toberight.com/2010/11/the-christine-odonnell-tv-ad-the-media-doesnt-want-you-to-see/
Christine winning would really make my day.....
correction...CO will win.
watch the California polls, up n’ down.
sometimes +- 10 points on same day,
Or the Alaska race, and many others,
so how ppl can dismiss, something they don’t know,
And if the generic poll is about +15 for GOP, Local
polls r not as accurate, i think...
A lot of their numbers look pretty close to what we’re hearing. They do have Fiorina winning by 1 which I don’t have much confidence in, and they only have Miller winning by 2 over McAdams with Murkowski getting 28% which I think is a little pessimistic. I think Miller’s margin will be significantly larger and the Cow won’t break 20%.
I think the DE race is one that’s going to surprise a lot of people.
I think one of the things that skews polling in this election year is the reluctance of people to identify themselves as Democrats. When polls then apply the registered percentage of voters for each party and independents, they then are left with much higher hard core D’s and are eliminating the R’s to keep the percentages they feel are registered representative numbers...
I have a really good feeling about this election - phone calls to neighbors sure looks encouraging at least in my area!
“is the dem base pumped up?”
VP Biden led a rally in Wilmington for all the Dem candidates today...
Less than 300 people showed up.
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