Spread this picture around and that should be worth a good 5 points...or more for Christine!
Posted on 11/01/2010 5:59:08 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Yup, the guys at Freedomist and The Conservative Journal continue to imply that an O'Donnell win is not all that unlikely. They say that all these polls that show her trailing by double digits, are using outdated poll assumptions and inaccurate numbers.. Read for yourself. As the saying goes, 'We report...you decide'!
The invincible juggernaut, Chris Coons, in the Delaware Senate Race may be more vulnerable to a Christine O’Donnell win in tomorrow’s special Delaware Election than previously thought. A number of factors reveal the polls being publicized may be based on outdated assumptions about the voter make-up that will show up in tomorrow’s election for the Delaware Senate Seat once held by Vice President Joe Biden.
Our polling for this race has largely shown a result that’s more favorable to O’Donnell, though recent polling by Tea Party Express has corroborated our 6-point O’Donnell deficit. Polls that give Coons a lead of 18, 19, and 20 points are, much like in the case of the California races, using inaccurate numbers to represent the composition of voters.
The National Trends--I do not know what turnout model TCJ used. I know some of the other polls that have shown O'Donnell down by double digits have used the 2008 turnout model, which is patently ridiculous since it was a huge Democrat year and a favorite son was running for both the Senate and the Vice Presidency. Let me sum it up very succinctly: The Gallup screen is historically the most accurate. It is currently 55-40 , which is GOP +15. If the GOP and GOP leaners are +15 in turnout (I daresay no poll has used such a screen, not even TCJ), then O'Donnell is the Senator, even though there are more registered Democrats. And this is highly likely. The numbers are trending, and trending hard, in the GOP's favor in every single race. There is no reason why Delaware would be an exception if deep blue Illinois is moving to the GOP. The reason there has been no public polling in OVER TWO WEEKS is that it would confirm this, I suspect. We had the same blackout of public polls before the primary, when the upset was brewing
Delaware and the National Trend-- Between 1952 and 2000, Delaware voted for the winner in every single Presidential race. (That included lopsided wins in 1984 and 1988 for Reagan or his surrogate) It is the classic bellwether state. This year will be no exception. there is no reason why it should be. In fact, because O'Donnell is an excellent candidate and Coons is abysmal, the trend should be, if anything, even sharper in favor of the GOP in DE.
http://theconservativejournal.wordpress.com/2010/11/01/tcj-research-1030-1031-poll-christine-odonnell-pushes-to-within-5-points-of-chris-coons-in-delaware-senate-race/
Coons leads by 50-45 as of yesterday. If Christine gets out her vote, she wins.
OMG! Don’t tease me like this! I’ve been begging my liberal friends for their votes for Christine and for Glen Urquhart (who may have been hurt by Christine’s star quality). Tomorrow could be a GLORIOUS day!
Somehow I don’t see Chris Coons as an “invincible juggernaut.” Go Christine!
Spread this picture around and that should be worth a good 5 points...or more for Christine!
I would love to see Rove and the establishment have to pack that into their pipe and smoke it on election night.
“I would love to see Rove and the establishment have to pack that into their pipe and smoke it on election night.”
Not to mention the exploding heads on MSLSD.
I can dream, can't I? LOL.
I would love it but I’m not counting chickens here.
“Spread this picture around and that should be worth a good 5 points...or more for Christine!”
Yea. Coons is a great candidate /sarc/ He is so magnetic. LOL
Well, I predicted that the conservative journal would show Christine at -5 a few days ago.
“I hope like hell I get to watch Sarah Palin and Tokyo Rove discussing O’Donnell’s victory sitting across the table from each other tomorrow night.”
It ain’t dreaming if it happens, Al. I think it will. I have the same feeling I had on November 3, 1980. A lot os liberal bastions are going to fall. WHen Massachusetts and NY went to Regan, I knew all things were possible with the right candidate and in the right year. You have both tomorrow in DE.
Watching RINO heads explode after an O’Donnell win would be far more entertaining than even watching the lib media melting down after the GOP electoral landslide.
She could turn to the camera and say Hey Rove, “you betcha!”
Tokyo Rove...LMAO...I love it.
“Well, I predicted that the conservative journal would show Christine at -5 a few days ago.”
In this particular case, I think they are being too conservative, no pun intended. I think she is ahead by several points if you employ the Gallup screen. Everything I have looked at from historical trends to fundraising to facebook fans suggests that she is ahead or, rather, that more of her voters will show up tomorrow than his.
The problem is, if O’Donnell wins, it will almost certainly be by a razor-thin margin. Traditionally, that means recounts and court cases until the Repubs throw up their hands and say, okay you rascally communists, we’ll just give you this one. And that assumes the Repubs CARE what happens to O’Donnell... based on what we’ve seen from them thus far, I’m not sure they’d even fight for her for a single day.
Nothing would give me more pleasure tomorrow night than to see Rove on Fox having to eat serious crow under Sarah Palin’s righteous glare over an O’Donnell victory.
This from Redstate, Oct. 30
Final Gubernatorial and Senatorial Predictions by numbers
O’Donnell(R)-52%, Coons(D)-47%, Rash(L)-1%
http://tinyurl.com/2uweh24
But couldn’t find the source,
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