The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections
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46.3 means the market predicts there is a 46.3% chance that this event happens.
Posted on 11/01/2010 1:36:31 AM PDT by Chet 99
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2010
Rossi holds small lead
Every time PPP has polled the Washington Senate race this year it's found the race to be within 2 or 3 points and our final poll there is no exception. But there is one twist- for the first time we find Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray, by a 50-48 margin.
Neither candidate has much in the way of support across party lines- Rossi's winning 93% of Republicans and Murray's winning 91% of Democrats. That means independents, as they are in so many races across the country, are making the difference for the GOP here. Rossi leads Murray with them by a 54-42 margin.
The most worrisome number for Murray within the poll, beyond her small overall disadvantage, is that among voters who say they've already returned their ballots Rossi's advantage is wider at 52-47. Murray's ability to keep the race close is predicated on the 24% of respondents who have not yet done so returning their ballots. That group supports her by a 51-45 margin.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
2% may not overcome the margin of fraud.
The five-percent Rossi amongst those who have already voted may be too big of a hill for Murray to overcome. Now if we can just take WV or CA, we could get to that magic No. 51.
Obviously, CO and IL are also on the bubble, too.
It won’t. Rossi’s been cheated before when it was close. They’re doing it again.
We aren’t going to get this seat. It’s too close. I think the same is true for IL and NV. Fiorina is fading. We pick up 6 if we’re lucky. 4 are in the bag, PA and CO look fairly good. If we get anything else, it’ll be NV. It all depends on how many and how good and how tough our poll watchers are and how good a ground game Angle has. I’m not real hopeful. The rats have already gotten over on the pubs in the early voting. The pubs should have been in there with baseball bats. At the very least, they should have been in court in hours. Instead, they filed a complaint with the SOS 4 days later. Pathetic.
If PPP has Rossi ahead by 2, then he must really be up by at least 7.
It looks more like you’re trying to chill the pubs than the rats.
We are going to take CO and Ill.
I agree that we most likely will take both looking at the numbers.
It’s CA or WV for the Senate.
No, I just don’t want people to be disappointed by unrealistic expectations. We’ll do real well in the House. But where we’re really coming on strong - HUGE = are the governorships, which are a lot more important than people usually think about, especially now. In fact, I think this is what zero is really melting down over. The loss of so many state houses dashes his chances in ‘12. Redistricting is going to kill him. And then there are the illegal alien conflicts and the zerocare suits. There’s also this: he can set down EO’s ‘til he’s blue in the face, but they have no force and effect on governors unless he wants a constitutional crisis as the main feature of his legacy.
You’re wrong on a lot of your numbers, though.
Fiorina is not fading, she has pulled even with Boxer, and is will have the undecideds breaking decisively for her.
Angle and Kirk are both ahead outside the MoE now.
(Though I would prefer to lose the IL seat than have an “R” voting with 0bama in every call.)
Even O’Donnell and Huffman are enjoying late-breaking surges.
Why do you htink 0bama and Biden have been campaigning in Deleware so much lately?
Sent in my vote for him over a week ago. Fingers crossed the mom in tennis shoes is sent walking back home.
“Angle and Kirk are both ahead outside the MoE now.
(Though I would prefer to lose the IL seat than have an “R” voting with 0bama in every call.)”
Normally I’d agree with you about losing the IL seat than winning it with a RINO, but this year is a bit different, since Kirk will be seated right away. He does have like a 54% ACU rating, so he is with us a little over half the time.
I liken this race a bit to Scott Brown in MA. I knew Brown was probably a RINO even before he was elected, but I still gave $ to his campaign because I saw it as a chance to kill the health care bill, which it would have done if we were dealing with sane people running the Dem party.
We need Kirk and hopefully at least Raese from WV to kill any chances of the Dems pushing their agenda in the lame duck session. It would be nice to get O’donnell too, but that would be a miracle at this point, though still possible in this election climate.
That is an awesome graph, thanks for posting it. Even the odds-makers know what is coming
Daniel Inouye (Hawaii) has been in office since 1962. He has won relection with 65-70% margins since.
The last RCP poll showed Cam Cassava (R) down by only 13; that was Oct 13. The GOP has not fully supported his campaign, no TV ads, nothing. This just may turn out to be a squeaker or an upset. Lots of rumbling out against the powers that be out here.
They haven’t been campaigning there lately. Biden is coming into Wilmington on Monday to campaign for all the rat candidates, including the state down-ballot offices. COD has picked up some support but she’s still at -9. We aren’t going to win DE.
Fiorina is down 4 in the most recent poll; she was only down 3 in the poll before that. Plus, she got sick and that reminded people of her cancer, even though it was just an infection. But the infection related to her cancer surgery, so it reminded people of that. Terrible timing, real bad luck. The wealthy limo libs will turn out in full force for Boxer because she’s a big environazi. Hollywood, government worker unions, all the hippies, yuppies, queers, gun grabbers, etc., are all Boxer supporters. It’s too much to overcome.
Kirk and Angle are right at the MoE but both of those states have huge rat fraud machines, plenty enough to overcome both candidates’ leads. The early voting in NV has been a field day for rat fraud. Dino Rossi is in a virtual tie and they’ve cheated him before without any real problems.
Angle could maybe squeak it out in spite of the fraud, but I’m not holding my breath. If she did, that’d be 7, assuming we close the deal in PA and CO.
Is it possible to run the table? Sure, anythings possible. Is it at all probable? Not at all. & is as good as it can get, and that’s not probable.
That should be “7 is as good as it can get....”
If we got to 50, I think Manchin could flip. But we won’t get to 50.
I think Rossi wins. And that would make 9 flips (ND, AK, IN, PA, WI, IL, CO, WA, NV).
We would need to win 1 out of 4: CA, WV, CT, DE...
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