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5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected
NYT ^ | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/31/2010 7:18:28 PM PDT by Chet 99

Dawn breaks over New York City on Wednesday, Nov. 3. Democrats catching the early train to work are thinking about adding a little whiskey to their morning coffee. Because the headlines they are reading are truly terrible.

Not only did Republicans take over the House, but they also did so going away — winning a net of 78 seats from Democrats. Seven seats in New York State changed hands; so did six in Pennsylvania, five in Ohio and four in North Carolina. Party luminaries like Jim Obertsar and Raul Grijalva were defeated. Barney Frank and Dennis Kucinich survived, but they did so by just 2 points apiece, and their elections weren’t called until 1 a.m. Democrats picked up just one Republican-held seat — the open seat in Delaware — but Joseph Cao somehow survived in his very Democratic-leaning district in New Orleans. Virtually every race deemed to be a tossup broke to the Republican.

The news isn’t much better in the Senate. The Democratic candidates in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Illinois all lost, flipping those seats to red from blue. So did Harry Reid in Nevada and Joe Manchin in West Virginia; both of them lost by 7 points, in fact. Washington State isn’t finished counting its ballots, but Dino Rossi has about a 30,000-vote lead over Patty Murray, and looks likely to prevail. California isn’t done counting either, and the race between Barbara Boxer and Carly Firoina remains too close to call. It might not matter anyway: Joseph I. Lieberman has scheduled a press conference for later that afternoon, and is expected to announce that — after seeing the strength of the mandate the voters have given the G.O.P. — he’ll begin conferencing with Republicans when Congress reconvenes in January.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; gopcomeback
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1 posted on 10/31/2010 7:18:30 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99
One reason they won't: Leadership.
2 posted on 10/31/2010 7:19:17 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: Chet 99

Train wreck. That is exactly what I think will happen Tuesday night.

Its the end of an era... the one was that was supposed to last for a generation.


3 posted on 10/31/2010 7:21:25 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Chet 99

What! No way!

Barney Frank is toast.


4 posted on 10/31/2010 7:25:55 PM PDT by MAexile (Bats left, votes right)
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To: Chet 99

I so hope to see that happen.


5 posted on 10/31/2010 7:27:11 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit.)
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To: Chet 99
My cynicism is in full bore now. I think they are purposely inflating the chances of Republican victories so they can claim later that “Hey, it wasn't as bad as we expected”.

This will then allow them to argue that the Republican win was not a “mandate” and that they need to make nice to Obambi and be sweet “bipartisans”.

6 posted on 10/31/2010 7:27:14 PM PDT by Ronin (If he were not so gruesomely incompetent and dangerous, Obama would just be silly.)
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To: Chet 99

I notice Nate has a soft spot for Barney Fag. I guess he just can’t bear the thought of him losing in his hypothetical day after write up.

And...after watching Nate on a video recently, I am pretty sure I know why he is so keen on Barney Fag.

This guy, Nate Silver, screams “I AM GAY!”. I suspected it all along, as he is just a little bit too much into Obama....but when I saw him on video, my suspicions were very much confirmed!

Just fyi to all freepers. You need to take what Nate Silver says with a big grain of salt. This is one depraved mind. (That said...he is right in this piece. The GOP is going to do better than most predictions!!!).


7 posted on 10/31/2010 7:28:04 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Chet 99

nate silver is a great read


8 posted on 10/31/2010 7:28:24 PM PDT by jern
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To: Ronin

I’m on the same page as you. Never underestimate the fact that these people are scheming liars 24/7.


9 posted on 10/31/2010 7:30:39 PM PDT by NoExpectations
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To: Chet 99

Trick or treat.......I can’t decide what this is.


10 posted on 10/31/2010 7:31:02 PM PDT by badpacifist (Conservative Nut Job? Yes I have nuts and a job.)
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To: Ronin
"I think they are purposely inflating the chances of Republican victories so they can claim later that “Hey, it wasn't as bad as we expected”."

Agreed. But I think they will also act like it was a victory for them even in the case of a Jerry Brown win or COD loss, moving the goalposts.

11 posted on 10/31/2010 7:34:28 PM PDT by Sam's Army
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To: Ronin

Same here.


12 posted on 10/31/2010 7:34:37 PM PDT by clintonh8r ("Let them eat lobster cake." Michele Antoinette, vacation #6.)
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To: MAexile

I think Barney will hang on..barely. The elites in Newton and Brookline are still p*ssed that Scott Brown won. They’ll steal this one for Frank.


13 posted on 10/31/2010 7:35:22 PM PDT by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: badpacifist

A couple of points:

1. If is it GOP +78, then I suspect Frank has lost.

2. As Limbaugh says, they like to report the true very close to the actual even so they can say see they were reporting straight down the line. And as you say, if the GOP falls at all short, they can call the Dims comeback kids.


14 posted on 10/31/2010 7:35:29 PM PDT by JLS (Democrats: People who won't even let you enjoy an unseasonably warm winter day.)
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To: Ronin
I don't get that feeling. If they really wanted to lull us to sleep, all the press would be talking about us taking the senate. Right now, the buzz is still prevalent that we win 40-60 in the house and that the senate is still in play for the Dems.

A Democrat friend of mine said last week, “60 seats and keeping the senate will be a good night for us.” That is a widespread feeling among Democrats that aren't insane and that you can have a conversation with. The accompanying thought is also, “Maybe I can keep my Democrat congressman or senator.” That is also why the press reports the trend, but is slow to count individual candidates out.

The press are Democrats. They think like Democrats. There is no conspiracy here. They are despondent.

15 posted on 10/31/2010 7:36:42 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: Chet 99

If Christine O’Donnell wins they’ll know just how deep the $h!t really is for them.


16 posted on 10/31/2010 7:38:09 PM PDT by umgud (Wear your Border Patrol hat to the polls)
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To: Chet 99; SpinnerWebb
Rick Perry, while expected to win in Texas, did so by a surprisingly large margin — nearly 20 points — and is making the rounds on the morning shows; the whispers are that he could be a Presidential contender.

Perry is going to win ... easily. That said, the aggy yell leader is most certainly NOT Presidential material.

17 posted on 10/31/2010 7:41:03 PM PDT by tx_eggman (Liberalism is only possible in that moment when a man chooses Barabas over Christ.)
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To: Luke21

The Democrats hope people will have second thoughts, keep their local congresscritter or Senator thus canceling out their anger at Obama. The polls say “throw out the bums” out but to play devil’s advocate here, I wouldn’t be surprised if people ended up voting for the people they know best - their local or state representative.


18 posted on 10/31/2010 7:41:33 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Its the end of an era... the one was that was supposed to last for a generation.


19 posted on 10/31/2010 7:41:45 PM PDT by listenhillary (A very simple fix to our dilemma - We need to reward the makers instead of the takers)
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To: Chet 99

Now wouldn’t it be nice if all the NY papers had to print that Paladino won the NYS governorship!


20 posted on 10/31/2010 7:43:48 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (The tides coming in)
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