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Posted on 10/28/2010 8:10:09 PM PDT by Mozilla
Dino Rossi, the pro-life candidate for the Senate in Washington state, has come back in the polls and now leads pro-abortion incumbent Sen. Patty Murray by one percent. With than a week until Election Day, a new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of likely voters shows Rossi picking up 48% of the vote, while Murray draws support from 47%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided.
Just over a week ago, Murray inched ahead 49% to 46%, but she has lost that lead in subsequent polls.
A Survey USA poll founds Murray leading 50-47, that dropped to 49-47 in a PPP poll, and then McClatchy had the race at 48-47 for Murray before this new survey.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen says the poll shows the Washington Senate race is a true tossup.
“But highlighting the closeness of the race, neither candidate has held a lead greater than five points in 15 surveys conducted since January, and they’ve been within two points of each other nine times. Murray’s support has ranged from 45% to 51%, while Rossi has picked up 46% to 49% of the vote,” he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at lifenews.com ...
Rossi has to win by at leat 4 points to make up for all the fraud.
This is an interesting look at some races that attempts to correct for polling discrepancies. According to this writer, there’s a 3% difference in the Washington race between what the pollsters are getting and what they would get if they used correct turnout models.
Polls Don’t Reflect GOP’s Real Chance of Taking Senate
A close look at the Senate polls suggests that they are likely understating the probability of Republican victories. Most seem to be under-sampling either Republicans, independents, or both. As a result, in 10 of 12 key Senate races, the Republican candidate’s likelihood of winning appears to be greater than what the polls are registering.To be sure, such conjectures are as much an art as a science. But this much we know:
snip
Second, in terms of party affiliation (aside from the growth in independents), we’re right back where we were in 2004. Both Gallup and Rasmussen now show Democrats enjoying an edge in party identification of just 1 to 2 percentage points — a spread that’s almost identical to what both polls registered in 2004. In that election, according to exit polls, turnout was split evenly between the two parties: 37 percent apiece.
snip
On the whole — using every poll from the past ten days that breaks down support by party (and in Washington, Florida, Delaware, and Wisconsin, where such polls are more scarce, going back a bit further) — here are the tallies that these polls would yield if they were to use the turnout projections outlined herein (with the actual RCP averages for each state listed alongside):
—California: Boxer (D) by 1 (RCP average: Boxer by 6)
—Colorado: Buck (R) by 8 (RCP: Buck by 2)
—Connecticut: Blumenthal (D) by 12.5 (RCP: Blumenthal by 12.5)
—Delaware: Coons (D) by 16 (RCP: Coons by 17)
—Florida: Rubio (R) by 10, over Crist) (RCP: Rubio by 12, over Crist)
—Kentucky: Paul (R) by 12 (RCP: Paul by 8)
—Illinois: Kirk (R) by 4 (RCP: Kirk by 3)
—Nevada: Angle (R) by 3.5 (RCP: Angle by 2)
—Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) by 5 (RCP: Toomey by 3)
—Washington: Rossi (R) by 1 (RCP: Murray (D) by 2)
—West Virginia: Manchin (D) by 1.5 (RCP: Manchin by 5)
—Wisconsin: Johnson (R) by 10 (RCP: Johnson by 6)
In all but Florida and Connecticut, the polls appear to be inflating the Democratic candidates’ prospects by inflating Democratic turnout.
In all likelihood, however, Republican candidates have a shot of doing slightly better on the whole than even the above tallies suggest, for the turnout projections that inform these tallies really only take into account party identification, not party enthusiasm. And party enthusiasm certainly seems to favor the GOP. In this year’s primaries, according to American University researcher Curtis Gans, Republican turnout outnumbered Democratic turnout for the first time in 80 years.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/pol ... tml?page=2
ROSSI CANT BREAK 48%%
Say WA? Evergreen State ping
Quick link: WA State Board
FReepmail sionnsar if you want on or off this ping list.
Ping sionnsar if you see a Washington state related thread.
No ping, actually, but the habit of issuing credit is hard to break.
I really really really want West Virginia.
For what it’s worth in filled in and sent my ballot today.
Voted Rossi of course but I still don’t trust this state to honor the results if he wins.
Great News!!!
I hope you are right but this is Washington. Hopefully we will get a surprise win and can still pick up the senate.
Ditto most races, I’m afraid....
No. It’s 6-7% now. Since 2006, pubs have done nothing about rat fraud, and the rats have become more skillful during that time. It used to be 4%. Not now. Estimates are minimum 6% leads are needed. That may not be true everywhere, but certainly in heavily populated suburbs and urban areas.
Rossi has twice before been cheated. He’s easy prey. He hasn’t demonstrated any wisdom or skill in the arena of combatting rat fraud and the dimwitted pub party leadership is useless, too, as we know.
Don’t expect him to win. Oh, he may be the true winner, but he isn’t going to be the next senator from WA because the rats count the votes in that state in the areas that matter and they are proven professionals at voter fraud.
This is a referendum on the unborn as well as the fate of
our country in the next few years!
Control of the Senate comes down to who wins in WA; I hope Rossi can pull it off.
Thanks, sagnite.
Fast and pray. We have this one chance to start a 20 year unwrap of Obama socialism. Fast and pray. Knock off something you want and pray, just through Tuesday.
These polls are useless in a Tea Party atmosphere. Anybody who thinks a pollster can guess w/in a point, I have some old GM stock you may be interested in.
Pray for the Election
He was cheated once. The second race he actually lost. Didn’t help the second race was during a horrible turnout year for Republicans and high involvement of liberals.
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