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The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls (GOP Gains: +55 for House, +8 for Senate +8-9 Governors)
Center for Politics ^ | 10/28/10 | Larry J. Sabato

Posted on 10/28/2010 5:49:03 AM PDT by randita

The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics

October 28th, 2010

The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the assistance.

Our tradition is that we make a prediction in every contest. We’ve been studying these states, districts, and candidates for many years, and we feel entitled! We’re proud of our record over the years, but inevitably we will be wrong with some calls. Apologies for those in advance.

Students sometimes ask how I ever got into this game. I first published a state-by-state set of predictions in 1978. To my surprise, the exercise turned out well. In 1980 I won a DC-based election pool, and with that cash incentive, I was hooked. (No, I haven’t bet on elections in decades, and professional prognosticators shouldn’t.)

HOUSE

The Crystal Ball was the first nonpartisan ratings service to call the House for the Republicans this year. Before Labor Day we issued a projection of +47 net gains for the Republicans. We based this both on a district-by-district analysis and also a careful review of the underlying election variables, from the generic ballot to presidential job approval to likely statewide coattail.

We believe +47 was the right call, though at the time the number was considered startling to most. The likely switch of the House to the GOP was fiercely disputed by Democrats at that time. Many other nonpartisan prognosticators had estimated Republican gains as being below the 39 net required for a GOP takeover.

Even at this late date, we see no need to do anything but tweak the total R gains, based on more complete information now available to all. Thus, we are raising the total to +55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still, but more of a floor than a ceiling. In fact, if you’ll go back to our pre-Labor Day analysis, that’s exactly what we suggested +47 would end up being.

The new total matches our district-by-district chart:

SENATE

The Crystal Ball has operated within a very narrow range all year. When others were projecting GOP Senate gains of just +3-4, we were already at +6. Depending on the primary results and other circumstances, we’ve landed between +6 and +9 in the last half-year. We have never gotten to +10, the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate, and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us, the number of GOP gains looks to be +8. Ten was always a stretch.

We believe the GOP will hold all its open seats (FL, KY, MO, NH, OH). This is quite an accomplishment in itself, since the early assumption was that at least a couple would switch sides. In addition, Republicans will probably pick up most of the following: AR, CO, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA, and WI. The closest appear to be CO, IL, NV, and PA. These races, especially the first three, are so tight that a strong breeze could change the result, so the GOP may well come up one or two short in this category. By the way, if Republicans do win the +8 we have projected, then they only have to unexpectedly pick off two of the following states to take control: CA, CT, WA, or WV. CT seems least likely, WA most likely–but any of the foursome would be an upset.

In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.

Note on Alaska: We were skeptical about the possible success of a write-in candidacy by Sen. Lisa Murkowski—which would be the first triumphant one since Sen. Strom Thurmond in 1954—but Joe Miller’s constant gaffes and controversies have actually put Murkowski in a position to win. It could be close and take many days to determine the winner, but it does not matter since Democrat Scott McAdams will not win and either Miller or Murkowski would sit in the Republican caucus. It matters to Alaskans whether Miller or Murkowski takes the seat, but not to the Crystal Ball’s tally.

We will continue to monitor the closest races all the way through election eve. If we decide to change a rating, we will post it on this website. We will also take another look at tight races for Governor and House.

GOVERNORS

The Crystal Ball was the first to project a likely GOP pick-up of +8 statehouses. While a few gubernatorial contests have teetered back and forth, we haven’t wavered far from that number, settling at +8-9 Republican gains, while recognizing that the final tally could vary by one in either direction.

The Republicans are likely to pick up 14 governorships: FL, IL, IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, and WY. The Democrats appear to be gaining 5 statehouses: CA, CT, HI, MN, and VT. The closest of these are CA, CT, IL, MN, OR, and VT. In each case we have had highly reliable, well-placed sources insist that our frontrunner could end up on the short end come Tuesday. So again, we will keep an eagle eye on these states over the weekend, for a possible Monday update.

Note on Georgia: Under Georgia law, the winner must get 50% plus one. There is some chance Deal will not reach that mark, but most believe he will. If he does not, a runoff will be held a month later and Deal will be heavily favored.

Note on Vermont: Vermont, like Georgia, has a 50% plus one rule. Dubie may lead Shumlin in the vote on Election Day, but will probably be under 50%. Instead of a runoff, as in Georgia, Vermont law would then require the legislature to choose a winner by secret ballot. As long as Shumlin is reasonably close to Dubie, the heavily Democratic legislature will probably pick Shumlin. However, this contest has been described to us repeatedly as a squeaker, one way or another.

The Crystal Ball has also projected that Republicans will gain 500+ new state legislative berths, and will probably capture at least a dozen additional state legislative chambers.

All of this has considerable implications for the redistricting process in 2011.

(There are breakdown charts at the website.)


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: khr; sabato; ushouse; ussenate
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To: heiss
There are a whole bunch of Dem senators up in 2012, who will be looking at the tea leaves from election day, and will NOT be eager to go along with the Obama agenda..especially since anything they might be coaxed take a bullet for will only get shot down in the House...A GOP with 48-50 seats will be OK...

And here's a thought....the GOP gubernatorial candidate in Hawaii is only a few points down..the race is winnable...and Hawaii's TWO Dem senators have a combined age close to Methusaleh....no way wishing anyone ill, but actuarial tables may come into play unexpectedly..

61 posted on 10/28/2010 7:33:47 AM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: beezdotcom
So WHY DIDN'T THEY?

Because the Tea Party folks resolutely yrefuse to organize themselves, and thus were not ready to recruit and promote a viable candidate.

And the Delaware GOP already had a candidate who most likely would have won the general election.

62 posted on 10/28/2010 7:35:18 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: Broker
GA 5th Congressional race is under the radar.. Career politicial icon John Lewis is actually campaigning against his republican challenger...Fenn Little. Atlanta Georgia has never before seen Lewis bother signs, street picketing. Until now, Fenn Little is a white (color-blind civil rights attorney. An intelligent veteran Alliance Defense Fund lawyer. He remains below the national radar like a jack in-the box.

If GA-5 goes into the R column, there'd be no Democrats left in Georgia's Congressional delegation. It's a minority-majority district that's D+26, making it the 30th most Democrat district in the country.

GA-8 in middle Georgia (Marshall) and GA-2 in SW Georgia (Bishop) are competitive and are ripe for the picking. GA-12 South-Central GA (Barrow) is possible.

But GA-13 South/Western ATL suburbs(Scott) GA-4 Dekalb/Rockdale(Johnson) and GA-5 Atlanta (Lewis) have to be super tsunami scenarios to go into the D column -- in that order. There wouldn't be any Democrats left if Lewis loses.

63 posted on 10/28/2010 7:39:19 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: heiss
This is the question we all can think for the next two years, under the rule of Senate Majority Leader Schumer.

And doing so in the glow of smug satisfaction about "doing the right thing."

64 posted on 10/28/2010 7:39:23 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: randita

I think Sabato is spot on! I don’t think the senate is in play, but we’ll take over the House(a given) and some Gov races, other than that I think he hit it on top of the nail....sorry, but I think he is absolutely correct. BUT, I’ll be proud to eat all the CROW you folks fork over...gladly!! I’ll even pour some Louisiana Hot Sauce on it too! :)


65 posted on 10/28/2010 7:39:25 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: r9etb

I see. So conservatives in Delaware have nobody to blame but themselves.


66 posted on 10/28/2010 7:41:06 AM PDT by beezdotcom
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To: randita
It's Larry "Macaca" Sabato. Since he decided to become part of the George Allen story instead of reporting or commenting on it no legitimate "news" organization should actually take him seriously. That they still do shows the depth of their ignorance.

Just sayin'

67 posted on 10/28/2010 7:44:37 AM PDT by Sursam Abordine
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To: r9etb

“As an example, Bennet just came out with an ad featuring a Buck statement that he “opposes separation of church and state.” Buck is now in full back-pedaling mode, of course.”

Per usual, and I don’t know why it is so, conservatives are on the wrong foot in framing this issue. The point to drive home and drive hard is the Constitutional guarantees and traditional exercise of freedom of religion, and the free exercise thereof.

Directly attacking the existing jurisprudential twisting of the 1st Amendment plays to their strengths, whereas emphasizing the freedom of conscience undermines the sovietish “freedom from religion” jurisprudence.

It is unfortunate and bewildering to me that the case for freedom is usually presented as crudely and awkwardly as possible. As much as any factor, Reagan’s eloquence is what moved his agenda forward, and even persuaded people over to it. Expanding the base can be done on principles stated well, not merely by pandering.


68 posted on 10/28/2010 7:47:00 AM PDT by Psalm 144
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To: randita

no expert hat here, more of a question.
Of all those times both the house and Senate flipped, what was the most Senate seats?

It just seem like a lot to gain 8, 9, 10 or 11 in one cycle.


69 posted on 10/28/2010 7:48:38 AM PDT by NoDRodee (U>S>M>C)
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To: randita

Looking at Sabato’s data, he’s just about right on both forecasts as of today. It is entirely possible that the wave on the Congressional side grows into the 70-80 range. I don’t think IL-10 is at risk for example.

On the Senate side, 8 is cautious and reasonable. A last minute shift can add WV and WA into the R column. CA is also in play and CT is a fringe reach. I could see the Senate going 51-49 either way at the end of the day.


70 posted on 10/28/2010 7:48:44 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: NYRepublican72
Several unique tactical factors in GAs 5th make Lewis vulnerable. Foremost is his personal incompetence and arrogance. Even more importantly, discerning district voters have a viable and palatable alternative in Fenn Little. This courageous man is both bright and color blind. These fundamentals supercede the failure democrats nationally.
71 posted on 10/28/2010 7:49:40 AM PDT by Broker (Welcome the Holy Spirit)
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To: beezdotcom
I see. So conservatives in Delaware have nobody to blame but themselves.

Not entirely. But to end up with Christine O'Donnell as the Republican candidate .... yeah, conservatives should be doing some serious soul-searching look at their role in turning an almost sure R seat over to a weak Democrat.

If there was going to be a serious attempt to challenge Mike Castle in the primary, shouldn't they have done so by putting up a person who had a shot in hell of winning the general election?

72 posted on 10/28/2010 7:50:06 AM PDT by r9etb
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Recent Sabato Tweets:

Many candidates are winning mainly because they have an R next to their name. Even on ‘Wheel of Fortune’, no letter is as valuable in ‘10.
3 minutes ago via web

See how little has changed since Crystal Ball was 1st to call House for GOP in August? (+47R then). Fundamentals rule.
about 2 hours ago via web


73 posted on 10/28/2010 7:59:41 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: NoDRodee
Of all those times both the house and Senate flipped, what was the most Senate seats?

The Republicans gained 56 seats in the House and 13 in the Senate when they took control of both chambers in 1947.

The Democrats gained 97 House seats and 12 Senate seats when they took control of both chambers in 1933. (Republicans lost 101 in that Great Depression election that swept FDR into power).

The biggest Republican gain was a 120 seat gain in 1895. They added six Senate seats to control the chamber. (This shift was induced by the Panic of 1893).

74 posted on 10/28/2010 8:03:07 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: Psalm 144
Sabato is cautious. He is not a right-wing ideologue. His numbers are the absolute minimum that we can expect.

**********************

What interested me was that despite a relatively modest Republican gain in the house, he projects what is pretty much an optimum figure for the xenate. Senators are hard to take down.

My personal prediction 6 weeks ago and today remains 80 and 8. 100 and 10 would delight me. We'll see.

Jim

75 posted on 10/28/2010 8:06:02 AM PDT by jimfree (In 2012 Sarah Palin will continue to have more relevant quality executive experience than B. Obama.)
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To: Broker

Trust me, if I were still living in GA-5, I’d be voting for Little until the cows come home. I had to write in candidates in the past when Lewis was running unopposed.

However, with that said, you’re talking about a D +26 district that’s 63% minority, 37% white and has a sizeable gay and lesbian community. Lewis won the district 70-30 in the 1994 wave election and will win by at least 20 this year. It’s as blue as blue districts come in the country.


76 posted on 10/28/2010 8:11:27 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: Psalm 144
Per usual, and I don’t know why it is so, conservatives are on the wrong foot in framing this issue. The point to drive home and drive hard is the Constitutional guarantees and traditional exercise of freedom of religion, and the free exercise thereof.... It is unfortunate and bewildering to me that the case for freedom is usually presented as crudely and awkwardly as possible.

I think there are a couple of reasons for that.

First, we just tend to assume that everybody shares our basic philosophy, and plays by the same rules we do. And thus, to us, it's enough simply to point to a few words in the Constitution and that's enough to convince everybody else.

The problem is, if the other guy doesn't share our assumptions to begin with, the old "point and shout" mode of debate is not just ineffective, but actually counter-productive. It turns people off, and it makes us look stupid and narrow, which just makes it more difficult for us next time around. (Interestingly, this applies equally well where Scriptural discussions are concerned....)

Second, I think we conservatives don't really have a good handle on what we believe anymore, and we certainly haven't got a good way to present it convincingly to those who disagree with us.

We need to change that -- but, unfortunately, there's also a populist bent to the Tea Party movement that positively rejects "elitists," including those intellectuals (such as Buckley or Russell Kirk in the old days).

Those are the ones who have the background and means to do the necessary heavy lifting of explaining our principles within the context of the modern world and, more importantly, reconciling the various competing conservative ideas into a somewhat coherent platform -- and doing so in a way that makes sense to those (the majority of Americans, btw) who are not already convinced.

And finally ... we're impatient. We don't lay any groundwork, we just tend to wade in and say things that people are not prepared to hear. Of course they dismiss us.

77 posted on 10/28/2010 8:19:41 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: r9etb
If there was going to be a serious attempt to challenge Mike Castle in the primary, shouldn't they have done so by putting up a person who had a shot in hell of winning the general election?

I think short-sightedness is the reason why they didn't. Conventional wisdom said "a true conservative can't win"...so the only "true conservative" that was "stupid enough" to run was a seriously flawed candidate...and they STILL won the primary.

This should be a lesson to everyone that says "well, we can't expect a conservative in some of these states". If you use that logic to talk yourself out of even trying, then you are "too clever by half".
78 posted on 10/28/2010 8:39:51 AM PDT by beezdotcom
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To: NYRepublican72

GAs 5th is Black and Blue for sure. This optomist also understands the realism of our historical demographic challenges. However, things have changed here over past decade, all in Fenn’s favor. You will soon see.


79 posted on 10/28/2010 8:44:36 AM PDT by Broker (Welcome the Holy Spirit)
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To: r9etb

I agree with all these points.

Good, clear summary.


80 posted on 10/28/2010 8:51:44 AM PDT by Psalm 144
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