KeyHouseRaces - The Latest Polls & 106 Seats in Play

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 27 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time.

So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones.

Here are the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week including those from The Hill that were just released. 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied. There are 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category. And worth noting is the fact that many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.

Particularly worth noting: GA-08, TX-17, SC-05, FL-02 and NY-20.

[InterceptPoint]

And just for reference here is the ranked list of our 106 Key House Races. We now have 99 Dems at risk and just 7 Republicans - and only 4 of those seem seriously threatened.

Rank	Experts		Democrat	Seat	Republican	Avg.	Experts	District
1	LA	3	Ravi Sangisetty	Open D	Jeff Landry	2.2	Likely R	LA	3
2	NY	29	Mathew Zeller	Open D	Tom Reed	2.2	Likely R	NY	29
3	TN	6	Brett Carter	Open D	Diane Black	2.2	Likely R	TN	6
4	AR	2	Joyce Elliott	Open D	Tim Griffin	2.0	Likely R	AR	2
5	IL	11	Debbie Halvorson	Incumbent D	Adam Kinzinger	1.8	Likely R	IL	11
6	IN	8	W. Trent Van Haaften	Open D	Dr. Larry Bucshon	1.8	Likely R	IN	8
7	KS	3	Stephene Moore	Open D	Kevin Yoder	1.8	Likely R	KS	3
8	OH	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	Incumbent D	Steve Stivers	1.7	Likely R	OH	15
9	CO	4	Betsy Markey	Incumbent D	Cory Gardner	1.5	Leans R	CO	4
10	PA	3	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Incumbent D	Mike Kelly	1.5	Leans R	PA	3
11	TN	8	Roy Herron	Open D	Stephen Fincher	1.5	Leans R	TN	8
12	WA	8	Suzan DelBene	Incumbent R	Dave Reichert	1.5	Leans R	WA	8
13	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	1.3	Leans R	FL	24
14	AZ	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	Incumbent D	Paul Gosar	1.2	Leans R	AZ	1
15	FL	25	Joe Garcia	Open R	David Rivera	1.2	Leans R	FL	25
16	NH	1	Carol Shea-Porter	Incumbent D	Frank Guinta	1.2	Leans R	NH	1
17	OH	1	Steve Driehaus	Incumbent D	Steve Chabot	1.2	Leans R	OH	1
18	TX	17	Chet Edwards	Incumbent D	Bill Flores	1.2	Leans R	TX	17
19	CA	3	Ami Bera	Incumbent R	Dan Lungren	1.0	Leans R	CA	3
20	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	1.0	Leans R	FL	8
21	MD	1	Frank Kratovil	Incumbent D	Andy Harris	1.0	Leans R	MD	1
22	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	0.8	Leans R	FL	2
23	MI	1	Gary McDowell	Open D	Dr. Daniel Benishek	0.8	Leans R	MI	1
24	PA	11	Paul Kanjorski	Incumbent D	Lou Barletta	0.8	Leans R	PA	11
25	VA	2	Glenn Nye	Incumbent D	Scott Rigell	0.8	Leans R	VA	2
26	VA	5	Tom Perriello	Incumbent D	Robert Hurt	0.8	Leans R	VA	5
27	WA	3	Denny Heck	Open D	Jaime Herrera	0.8	Leans R	WA	3
28	AR	1	Chad Causey	Open D	Rick Crawford	0.7	Leans R	AR	1
29	NM	2	Harry Teague	Incumbent D	Steve Pearce	0.7	Leans R	NM	2
30	WI	7	Julie Lassa	Open D	Sean Duffy	0.7	Leans R	WI	7
31	MS	1	Travis Childers	Incumbent D	Alan Nunnelee	0.5	Toss-Up	MS	1
32	ND	AL	Earl Pomeroy	Incumbent D	Rick Berg	0.5	Toss-Up	ND	AL
33	PA	7	Bryan Lentz	Open D	Pat Meehan	0.5	Toss-Up	PA	7
34	PA	8	Patrick Murphy	Incumbent D	Mike Fitzpatrick	0.5	Toss-Up	PA	8
35	AZ	5	Harold Mitchell	Incumbent D	David Schweikert	0.3	Toss-Up	AZ	5
36	CO	3	John Salazar	Incumbent D	Scott Tipton	0.3	Toss-Up	CO	3
37	IL	14	Bill Foster	Incumbent D	Randy Hultgren	0.3	Toss-Up	IL	14
38	NC	8	Larry Kissell	Incumbent D	Harold Johnson	0.3	Toss-Up	NC	8
39	NH	2	Annie Kuster	Open D	Charlie Bass	0.3	Toss-Up	NH	2
40	NY	19	John Hall	Incumbent D	Nan Hayworth	0.3	Toss-Up	NY	19
41	OH	16	John Boccieri	Incumbent D	Jim Renacci	0.3	Toss-Up	OH	16
42	SC	5	John Spratt Jr.	Incumbent D	Mick Mulvaney	0.3	Toss-Up	SC	5
43	SD	AL	Stephanie Sandlin	Incumbent D	Kristi Noem	0.3	Toss-Up	SD	AL
44	WI	8	Steve Kagen	Incumbent D	Reid Ribble	0.3	Toss-Up	WI	8
45	HI	1	Colleen Hanabusa	Incumbent R	Charles Djou	0.2	Toss-Up	HI	1
46	AZ	8	Gabrielle Giffords	Incumbent D	Jesse Kelly	0.2	Toss-Up	AZ	8
47	CA	11	Jerry McNerney	Incumbent D	David Harmer	0.2	Toss-Up	CA	11
48	GA	8	Jim Marshall	Incumbent D	Austin Scott	0.2	Toss-Up	GA	8
49	IN	9	Baron Hill	Incumbent D	Todd Young	0.2	Toss-Up	IN	9
50	MI	7	Mark Schauer	Incumbent D	Tim Walberg	0.2	Toss-Up	MI	7
51	NV	3	Dina Titus	Incumbent D	Dr. Joe Heck	0.2	Toss-Up	NV	3
52	NY	23	Bill Owens	Incumbent D	Matt Doheny	0.2	Toss-Up	NY	23
53	PA	10	Chris Carney	Incumbent D	Tom Marino	0.2	Toss-Up	PA	10
54	WV	1	Mike Oliverio	Open D	David B. McKinley	0.2	Toss-Up	WV	1
55	AL	2	Bobby Bright	Incumbent D	Martha Roby	0.0	Toss-Up	AL	2
56	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	0.0	Toss-Up	FL	22
57	IL	10	Dan Seals	Open R	Bob Dold	0.0	Toss-Up	IL	10
58	IL	17	Phil Hare	Incumbent D	Bobby Schilling	0.0	Toss-Up	IL	17
59	OH	18	Zach Space	Incumbent D	Bob Gibbs	0.0	Toss-Up	OH	18
60	TN	4	Lincoln Davis	Incumbent D	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	0.0	Toss-Up	TN	4
61	TX	23	Ciro Rodriguez	Incumbent D	Quico Canseco	0.0	Toss-Up	TX	23
62	MA	10	William Keating	Open D	Jeff Perry	-0.2	Toss-Up	MA	10
63	OR	5	Kurt Schrader	Incumbent D	Scott Bruun	-0.2	Toss-Up	OR	5
64	NJ	3	John Adler	Incumbent D	Jon Runyan	-0.3	Toss-Up	NJ	3
65	NY	24	Mike Arcuri	Incumbent D	Richard Hanna	-0.3	Toss-Up	NY	24
66	GA	2	Sanford Bishop	Incumbent D	Mike Keown	-0.5	Toss-Up	GA	2
67	MO	4	Ike Skelton	Incumbent D	Vicky Hartzler	-0.5	Toss-Up	MO	4
68	NY	20	Scott Murphy	Incumbent D	Chris Gibson	-0.5	Toss-Up	NY	20
69	PA	12	Mark Critz	Incumbent D	Timothy Burns	-0.7	Leans D	PA	12
70	IA	3	Leonard Boswell	Incumbent D	Brad Zaun	-0.7	Leans D	IA	3
71	KY	6	Ben Chandler	Incumbent D	Andy Barr	-0.7	Leans D	KY	6
72	NM	1	Martin Heinrich	Incumbent D	Jon Barela	-0.7	Leans D	NM	1
73	NY	1	Tim Bishop	Incumbent D	Randy Altschuler	-0.7	Leans D	NY	1
74	IN	2	Joe Donnelly	Incumbent D	Jackie Walorski	-0.8	Leans D	IN	2
75	OH	6	Charlie Wilson	Incumbent D	Bill Johnson	-0.8	Leans D	OH	6
76	VA	9	Rick Boucher	Incumbent D	Morgan Griffith	-0.8	Leans D	VA	9
77	CT	4	Jim Himes	Incumbent D	Dan Debicella	-1.0	Leans D	CT	4
78	ID	1	Walter Minnick	Incumbent D	Raul Labrador	-1.0	Leans D	ID	1
79	VA	11	Gerald Connolly	Incumbent D	Keith Fimian	-1.0	Leans D	VA	11
80	WA	2	Rick Larsen	Incumbent D	John Koster	-1.0	Leans D	WA	2
81	AZ	7	Raúl Grijalva	Incumbent D	Ruth McClung	-1.2	Leans D	AZ	7
82	CA	47	Loretta Sanchez	Incumbent D	Van Tran	-1.2	Leans D	CA	47
83	CT	5	Christopher Murphy	Incumbent D	Sam Caligiuri	-1.2	Leans D	CT	5
84	MI	9	Gary Peters	Incumbent D	"Rocky" Raczowski	-1.2	Leans D	MI	9
85	MN	1	Tim Walz	Incumbent D	Randy Demmer	-1.2	Leans D	MN	1
86	MS	4	Gene Taylor	Incumbent D	Steven Palazzo	-1.2	Leans D	MS	4
87	NY	13	Mike McMahon	Incumbent D	Mike Grimm	-1.2	Leans D	NY	13
88	CA	20	Jim Costa	Incumbent D	Andy Vidak	-1.3	Leans D	CA	20
89	DE	AL	John Carney	Open R	Glen Urquhart	-1.3	Leans D	DE	AL
90	LA	2	Cedric Richmond	Incumbent R	Joseph Cao	-1.3	Leans D	LA	2
91	NY	25	Dan Maffei	Incumbent D	Ann Marie Buerkle	-1.3	Leans D	NY	25
92	NC	2	Bob Etheridge	Incumbent D	Renee Ellmers	-1.5	Leans D	NC	2
93	NC	7	Mike McIntyre	Incumbent D	Ilario Pantano	-1.5	Leans D	NC	7
94	NC	11	Heath Shuler	Incumbent D	Jeff Miller	-1.5	Leans D	NC	4
95	WI	3	Ron Kind	Incumbent D	Dan Kapanke	-1.5	Leans D	WI	3
96	CO	7	Ed Perlmutter	Incumbent D	Ryan Frazier	-1.7	Likely D	CO	7
97	OH	13	Betty Sutton	Incumbent D	Tom Ganley	-1.7	Likely D	OH	13
98	PA	4	Jason Altmire	Incumbent D	Keith Rothfus	-1.7	Likely D	PA	4
99	RI	1	David Cicilline	Open D	John Loughlin	-1.7	Likely D	RI	1
100	WV	3	Nick Rahall	Incumbent D	"Spike" Maynard	-1.8	Likely D	WV	3
101	IA	1	Bruce Braley	Incumbent D	Ben Lange	-2.0	Likely D	IA	1
102	IA	2	Dave Loebsack	Incumbent D	Marianneette Miller Meeks	-2.0	Likely D	IA	2
103	PA	17	Tim Holden	Incumbent D	David Argall	-2.0	Likely D	PA	17
104	MN	8	Jim Oberstar	Incumbent D	Chip Cravaack	-2.2	Likely D	MN	8
105	NY	22	Maurice Hinchey	Incumbent D	George Phillips	-2.2	Likely D	NY	22
106	IL	8	Melissa Bean	Incumbent D	Joe Walsh	-2.3	Likely D	IL	8

[InterceptPoint]

[mwl8787]

Keep us posted — thanks — hopefully both MN-1 and MN-8 will evolve to a Toss-Up

[MustKnowHistory]

And IN-2. Let’s send Joe Donnelly home.

[wardaddy]

great references keep it up.

i have donated more this cycle in these tight races than ever before and almost all outside my state

from Alaska to Mass to Delaware and so forth

we have to keep pushing

[Old Teufel Hunden]

I’m definitely watching MSNBC’s election night coverage next Tuesday. It will be soooooooooooo funny!!!

[Anti-Hillary]

There are 2 more that need to be on that list
OR-2 Cornilles(R) v. Wu(D)
and
OR-4 Robinson(R) v. DeFazio(D)

The Repubs are back by only 4% in both these races and still a HIGH % of undecideds in both races!

Not as sure about OR-2 but REALLY think OR-4 is going to go for Robinson.

This would be AMAZING as DeFazio (progressive caucus leader trying to bring impeachment against Chief Justice Roberts) garnered 82% of the vote in his last election!!!!

[Drango]

Great job...I’ve got to wonder if Cook, Rosenberg etc are able to keep up? The results from CA-20 and NY-20 are very interesting. I think CA-20 be a toss-up now given the survey/usa results.

[LS]

Hate to get giddy here-—have been let down before-—but another analysis of only the MOST RECENT POLLS showed 99 seats with the GOP leading and another 10 in striking distance.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Persevero]

wardaddy’s war chest!

[Logic n' Reason]

What the *$@&@#%*#%^#@!&%#%#$%(%$& is wrong with IOWA???

Is the state full of idiots or what???

Iowa is supposed to be the "midwest". You know....traditional CONSERVATIVE valuse and all...

Just sayin'

[Fishtalk]

Thanks for this.

Couple of notes from here in the swamps of Delaware.

Kratovil is toast. Your grid says the district leans Republican....leaning my right eyeball. That happens to be my old district in Merryland when oncit I lived there. VERY conservative, the gerrymandered district spans from Anne Arundel County to Merryland’s eastern shore. They lost their mind last time when they elected Kratovil but take this to the bank, the natives are restless, they got pitchforks and tarbuckets, they’re ready to light the fire and it’s GOODBYE KRATOVIL!

Now I know the O’Donnell race is a senate race and not part of this grid. I’d been lamenting the lack of polls in the Coons/O’Donnell race though I have a theory on those same lack of polls. Ask me about it sometime.

But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!

I know the COD thing is sucking all of the oxygen out of the air but there is a very important House race going on here in Delaware. Del only has ONE seat in the House of Reps, formerly occupied by the infamous Mike Castle who is, nameofthefather,sonandholyghost, now history. Thus THAT house seat could turn if the pub running now, one Glen Urquhart, who I adore by the way, doesn’t win over the Dem contender, former Del loot-gov John Carney.

On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!

Well I got some thoughts on that too but with Delaware being the focus of attention what with Christine O’Donnell they so love to mock, and this really big House race when you think about it not that poor ole Glen gets any attention with COD taking up all the publicity space...you’d think they’d have SOMETHING on these races, huh?

[Frantzie]

I would think that idiot Heath Schuler should be toast in NC. What about that woman near NASA Cape Canaveral in FL - Kostmas or something. I am sure she is toast.

NASA workers will be dumpster diving.

[InterceptPoint]

But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!

On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!

It's there: #89 out of 106. We have it ranked LEANS D.

You have to go to KeyHouseRaces Polls to see the full list of polls. And we do have DE-AL listed. In fact you caused me to go hunting for a recent poll and I found one and posted it. It's Monmouth University and it shows Urquhart (R) losing to Carney (D) by 53 to 44.

[goodnesswins]

Is there someone running this year in 2? My mind’s gone blank...

[Fishtalk]

Well what can I say but “oh”?

Hmmmm....leans Dem?

Gotta think about this. Not at all sure I believe that.

[Anti-Hillary]

Rob Cornilles

OPPS!!!! It is Dist. 1 NOT 2

http://www.cornillesforcongress.com/

Blumenthal is Dist. 2 and he is a lock.

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[randita]

i have donated more this cycle in these tight races than ever before and almost all outside my state

This is the future of politics, IMO. Social networking, blogs and websites like Key House Races are going to take precedence over what comes from the national party structures.

Immediate access to candidate info, polling data, district demographics and other means of evaluating a race allow someone in the northern tip of Maine to know precisely what's going on in the Alaska tundra.

As of now, conservatives own the social networking scene and are using it to great advantage in this election cycle.