Rank | Experts | Democrat | Seat | Republican | Avg. | Experts | District | ||
1 | LA | 3 | Ravi Sangisetty | Open D | Jeff Landry | 2.2 | Likely R | LA | 3 |
2 | NY | 29 | Mathew Zeller | Open D | Tom Reed | 2.2 | Likely R | NY | 29 |
3 | TN | 6 | Brett Carter | Open D | Diane Black | 2.2 | Likely R | TN | 6 |
4 | AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | 2.0 | Likely R | AR | 2 |
5 | IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | 1.8 | Likely R | IL | 11 |
6 | IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | 1.8 | Likely R | IN | 8 |
7 | KS | 3 | Stephene Moore | Open D | Kevin Yoder | 1.8 | Likely R | KS | 3 |
8 | OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | 1.7 | Likely R | OH | 15 |
9 | CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | 1.5 | Leans R | CO | 4 |
10 | PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | 1.5 | Leans R | PA | 3 |
11 | TN | 8 | Roy Herron | Open D | Stephen Fincher | 1.5 | Leans R | TN | 8 |
12 | WA | 8 | Suzan DelBene | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | 1.5 | Leans R | WA | 8 |
13 | FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | 1.3 | Leans R | FL | 24 |
14 | AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Paul Gosar | 1.2 | Leans R | AZ | 1 |
15 | FL | 25 | Joe Garcia | Open R | David Rivera | 1.2 | Leans R | FL | 25 |
16 | NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | 1.2 | Leans R | NH | 1 |
17 | OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | 1.2 | Leans R | OH | 1 |
18 | TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | 1.2 | Leans R | TX | 17 |
19 | CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | 1.0 | Leans R | CA | 3 |
20 | FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | 1.0 | Leans R | FL | 8 |
21 | MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | 1.0 | Leans R | MD | 1 |
22 | FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Steve Southerland | 0.8 | Leans R | FL | 2 |
23 | MI | 1 | Gary McDowell | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | 0.8 | Leans R | MI | 1 |
24 | PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | 0.8 | Leans R | PA | 11 |
25 | VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | 0.8 | Leans R | VA | 2 |
26 | VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | 0.8 | Leans R | VA | 5 |
27 | WA | 3 | Denny Heck | Open D | Jaime Herrera | 0.8 | Leans R | WA | 3 |
28 | AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | 0.7 | Leans R | AR | 1 |
29 | NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | 0.7 | Leans R | NM | 2 |
30 | WI | 7 | Julie Lassa | Open D | Sean Duffy | 0.7 | Leans R | WI | 7 |
31 | MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | 0.5 | Toss-Up | MS | 1 |
32 | ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | 0.5 | Toss-Up | ND | AL |
33 | PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 7 |
34 | PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 8 |
35 | AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | 0.3 | Toss-Up | AZ | 5 |
36 | CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | 0.3 | Toss-Up | CO | 3 |
37 | IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | 0.3 | Toss-Up | IL | 14 |
38 | NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | 0.3 | Toss-Up | NC | 8 |
39 | NH | 2 | Annie Kuster | Open D | Charlie Bass | 0.3 | Toss-Up | NH | 2 |
40 | NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | 0.3 | Toss-Up | NY | 19 |
41 | OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | 0.3 | Toss-Up | OH | 16 |
42 | SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | 0.3 | Toss-Up | SC | 5 |
43 | SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | 0.3 | Toss-Up | SD | AL |
44 | WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Reid Ribble | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WI | 8 |
45 | HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | 0.2 | Toss-Up | HI | 1 |
46 | AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jesse Kelly | 0.2 | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 |
47 | CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | 0.2 | Toss-Up | CA | 11 |
48 | GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | 0.2 | Toss-Up | GA | 8 |
49 | IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | 0.2 | Toss-Up | IN | 9 |
50 | MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | 0.2 | Toss-Up | MI | 7 |
51 | NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | 0.2 | Toss-Up | NV | 3 |
52 | NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Matt Doheny | 0.2 | Toss-Up | NY | 23 |
53 | PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | 0.2 | Toss-Up | PA | 10 |
54 | WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | 0.2 | Toss-Up | WV | 1 |
55 | AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | 0.0 | Toss-Up | AL | 2 |
56 | FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | 0.0 | Toss-Up | FL | 22 |
57 | IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | 0.0 | Toss-Up | IL | 10 |
58 | IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Incumbent D | Bobby Schilling | 0.0 | Toss-Up | IL | 17 |
59 | OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | 0.0 | Toss-Up | OH | 18 |
60 | TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | 0.0 | Toss-Up | TN | 4 |
61 | TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Quico Canseco | 0.0 | Toss-Up | TX | 23 |
62 | MA | 10 | William Keating | Open D | Jeff Perry | -0.2 | Toss-Up | MA | 10 |
63 | OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | -0.2 | Toss-Up | OR | 5 |
64 | NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | -0.3 | Toss-Up | NJ | 3 |
65 | NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | -0.3 | Toss-Up | NY | 24 |
66 | GA | 2 | Sanford Bishop | Incumbent D | Mike Keown | -0.5 | Toss-Up | GA | 2 |
67 | MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Vicky Hartzler | -0.5 | Toss-Up | MO | 4 |
68 | NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | -0.5 | Toss-Up | NY | 20 |
69 | PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | -0.7 | Leans D | PA | 12 |
70 | IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | -0.7 | Leans D | IA | 3 |
71 | KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | -0.7 | Leans D | KY | 6 |
72 | NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | -0.7 | Leans D | NM | 1 |
73 | NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | -0.7 | Leans D | NY | 1 |
74 | IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | -0.8 | Leans D | IN | 2 |
75 | OH | 6 | Charlie Wilson | Incumbent D | Bill Johnson | -0.8 | Leans D | OH | 6 |
76 | VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | -0.8 | Leans D | VA | 9 |
77 | CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | -1.0 | Leans D | CT | 4 |
78 | ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | -1.0 | Leans D | ID | 1 |
79 | VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | -1.0 | Leans D | VA | 11 |
80 | WA | 2 | Rick Larsen | Incumbent D | John Koster | -1.0 | Leans D | WA | 2 |
81 | AZ | 7 | Raúl Grijalva | Incumbent D | Ruth McClung | -1.2 | Leans D | AZ | 7 |
82 | CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | -1.2 | Leans D | CA | 47 |
83 | CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | -1.2 | Leans D | CT | 5 |
84 | MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | -1.2 | Leans D | MI | 9 |
85 | MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | -1.2 | Leans D | MN | 1 |
86 | MS | 4 | Gene Taylor | Incumbent D | Steven Palazzo | -1.2 | Leans D | MS | 4 |
87 | NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | -1.2 | Leans D | NY | 13 |
88 | CA | 20 | Jim Costa | Incumbent D | Andy Vidak | -1.3 | Leans D | CA | 20 |
89 | DE | AL | John Carney | Open R | Glen Urquhart | -1.3 | Leans D | DE | AL |
90 | LA | 2 | Cedric Richmond | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | -1.3 | Leans D | LA | 2 |
91 | NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | -1.3 | Leans D | NY | 25 |
92 | NC | 2 | Bob Etheridge | Incumbent D | Renee Ellmers | -1.5 | Leans D | NC | 2 |
93 | NC | 7 | Mike McIntyre | Incumbent D | Ilario Pantano | -1.5 | Leans D | NC | 7 |
94 | NC | 11 | Heath Shuler | Incumbent D | Jeff Miller | -1.5 | Leans D | NC | 4 |
95 | WI | 3 | Ron Kind | Incumbent D | Dan Kapanke | -1.5 | Leans D | WI | 3 |
96 | CO | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | Incumbent D | Ryan Frazier | -1.7 | Likely D | CO | 7 |
97 | OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | -1.7 | Likely D | OH | 13 |
98 | PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | -1.7 | Likely D | PA | 4 |
99 | RI | 1 | David Cicilline | Open D | John Loughlin | -1.7 | Likely D | RI | 1 |
100 | WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Incumbent D | "Spike" Maynard | -1.8 | Likely D | WV | 3 |
101 | IA | 1 | Bruce Braley | Incumbent D | Ben Lange | -2.0 | Likely D | IA | 1 |
102 | IA | 2 | Dave Loebsack | Incumbent D | Marianneette Miller Meeks | -2.0 | Likely D | IA | 2 |
103 | PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | -2.0 | Likely D | PA | 17 |
104 | MN | 8 | Jim Oberstar | Incumbent D | Chip Cravaack | -2.2 | Likely D | MN | 8 |
105 | NY | 22 | Maurice Hinchey | Incumbent D | George Phillips | -2.2 | Likely D | NY | 22 |
106 | IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | -2.3 | Likely D | IL | 8 |
Keep us posted — thanks — hopefully both MN-1 and MN-8 will evolve to a Toss-Up
Hate to get giddy here-—have been let down before-—but another analysis of only the MOST RECENT POLLS showed 99 seats with the GOP leading and another 10 in striking distance.
Thanks for this.
Couple of notes from here in the swamps of Delaware.
Kratovil is toast. Your grid says the district leans Republican....leaning my right eyeball. That happens to be my old district in Merryland when oncit I lived there. VERY conservative, the gerrymandered district spans from Anne Arundel County to Merryland’s eastern shore. They lost their mind last time when they elected Kratovil but take this to the bank, the natives are restless, they got pitchforks and tarbuckets, they’re ready to light the fire and it’s GOODBYE KRATOVIL!
Now I know the O’Donnell race is a senate race and not part of this grid. I’d been lamenting the lack of polls in the Coons/O’Donnell race though I have a theory on those same lack of polls. Ask me about it sometime.
But I note that here on your grid so gracefully provided, there’s NOTHING ABOUT THE DELAWARE HOUSE RACE!
I know the COD thing is sucking all of the oxygen out of the air but there is a very important House race going on here in Delaware. Del only has ONE seat in the House of Reps, formerly occupied by the infamous Mike Castle who is, nameofthefather,sonandholyghost, now history. Thus THAT house seat could turn if the pub running now, one Glen Urquhart, who I adore by the way, doesn’t win over the Dem contender, former Del loot-gov John Carney.
On your grid there’s no polls for this race either!
Well I got some thoughts on that too but with Delaware being the focus of attention what with Christine O’Donnell they so love to mock, and this really big House race when you think about it not that poor ole Glen gets any attention with COD taking up all the publicity space...you’d think they’d have SOMETHING on these races, huh?
Unfortunately, this probably means ObaMao's misery hasn't sufficiently affected the Dakotas yet.
I’ll be interested to see what happens in the North Carolina 4th. The execrable mega-liberal David Price is in the brawl of his life with B.J. Lawson...since it’s not on these lists, I assume that outside polls are showing it as a safe retention for Price even though Lawson’s polling shows him right there.
Price will not be able to ride the racial Obama wave here in heavily-black Durham this year (68-28 Obama in 2008), and I expect his smelly hippie base over in Chapel Hell and Carrboro aren’t exactly motivated right now. I don’t think he’ll lose, there’s just too much of a combination of college liberals and black racist Democrats to overcome. But if there is any year that the Rats could finally lose their chokehold on this district, this is it.
}:-)4
Thank you for the continuing updates!
I hope you do a thread showing all the winners (main list
and tier2) .... maybe start a thread election night.
I think your effort has helped keep people energized & hopeful.
Our campaign staff has posted links to your KHR site on their main site & their facebook..recognizing the grassroots efforts, and your one-stop-shopping for info.
NY20 is pushing hard to turn this district back to RED; you know the dems are nervous for their pelosibluelapdog dem murphy...cuz they’re sending Bubba up here to GOTV
Great job to the team at our very own FReepers @ KHR!
~Kate
You’ve got CA-20 as Leans D. You might want to check:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2614636/posts
bump for later. thanks for the post!
-PJ
Patrick Murphy (PA-8) has a problem. A vote fraud scandal is breaking out involving his campaign manager. Murphy is going down hard!
Thanks for the ping. Dems are spending alot of money on candidates in IL8, 10 and 14. Glad to see the races are so close. Went to a rally tonight, got to hear the soon-to-be Rep. Adam Kinzinger from IL-11. He’ll make the people of the district proud!