UPDATE: Polling shows Republicans to gain 80 House Seats; 110 in reach.

Various polling firms, RCP, Wikipedia, etc. ^ | 10-27 | Dangus

[dangus]

Survey of most recent polling shows Republicans ahead in EIGHTY House seats currently held by Democrats, and within striking range in 30 more. 84 would give the Republicans a majority of 60%
If your district isn't on this list, it doesn't mean the Democrat is ahead, only that there is no polling demonstrating a Republican's lead; My tracking doesn't include most races where no polling exists.

I selected the best polling available for each of these races; In many cases, that means the most recent, but internal polls are viewed suspiciously. Internal polls are noted with a "D" or an "R" indicating which candidate paid for them. Alabama 2: Roby 43, Bright 41 (POS-R, 10/5)
Arizona 1: Gosar 46, Kirkpatrick 39 (The Hill, 10/6)
Arizona 5: Schweikert 45, Mitchell 42 (The Hill, 10/18)
Arizona 7: McClung 39, Grijalva 37(Summit-R, 105)
Arizona 8: Kelly 46, Giffords 46 (Ayers, 8/29)
Arkansas 1: Crawford 46, Causey 34 (The Hill-D, 10/13), 42-34 (Talk Bus., 10/18)
Arkansas 2: Griffin 52, Elliot 35 (Hendrix, 8/17), 50-38 (Talk Bus., 10/18)
California 11: Harmer 48, McNerney 42, Others 4 (SurveyUSA, 10/11)
California 47: Tran 39, Sanchez 39 (POS, 10/15) California 20: Vidak 52, Costa 42 (SurveyUSA, 10/25)
Colorado 3: Tipton 47, Salazar 43 (The Hill-D, 10/26)
Colorado 4: Gardner 50, Markey 39 (Ayers, 8/29), 44-41 (The Hill, 10/6)
Colorado 7: Frazier 40, Perlmutter 39 (Magellan, 8/26)
Connecticut 4: Debicella 42, Himes 42 (NRes, 9/28)
Connecticut 5: Caliguiri 50, Murphy 43 (Merriman River, 10/6)
Florida 2: Southerland 50, Boyd 38 (The Hill-D, 10/26)
Florida 8: Webster 48, Grayson 41 (VSS, 10/25)
Florida 12: Ross 32, Edwards 35, Wilkinson 20 ([fake] "Tea") (Greenberg-D*, 7/28)
Florida 22: West 47, Klein 44 (VSS, 10/21)
Florida 24: Adams 49, Kosmas 39 (Fabrizio, 9/23)
Georgia 2: Keown 47, Bishop 45 (Landmark, 10/19)
Georgia 8: Scott 50, Marshall 37 (The Hill-D, 10/26)
Illinois 8: Walsh 42, Bean 41 (We Ask America, 10/2)
Illinois 11: Kinzinger 49, Halvorson 31 (The Hill, 10/6)
Illinois 14: Hultgren 44, Foster 37 (We Ask America, 9/29), 43-42 (The Hill-D, 10/20)
Illinois 17: Schilling 45, Hare 38 (The Hill, 10/18)
Indiana 8: Bucshon 43, Van Haaften 27 (POS, 7/22)
Maryland 1: Harris 43, Kratovil 40 (The Hill, 10/6)
Massachusetts 10: Perry 41, Keating 40 (WGBH, 10/19) (Reported as 41-43 after pushing)
Michigan 1: Benishek 41, McDonwell 38 (Greenberg-D, 9/22); 39-25 (TargetPoint, 9/2)
Michigan 3: Amash 46, Miles 37 (EPIC/MRI, 10/23)
Michigan 7: Walberg 50, Schauer 40 (Ayers/AAF, 8/18), 41-41(The Hill, 10/6)
Michigan 9: Raczkowski 45, Peters 41 (Rossman, 9/13)
Michigan 15: Steele 44, Dingell 39 (Rossman, 10/4)
Mississippi 1: Nunnelee 44, Childers 39 (The Hill, 10/19)
Mississippi 4: Palazzi 44, Taylor 41 (Tarrance, 10/19)
Missouri 4: Hartzler 44, Skelton 44 (Wilson Res., 42-42
Nevada 3: Heck 47, Titus 44 (The Hill, 10/6)
New Hampshire 1: Giunta 49, Shea-Porter 39 (UNH, 10/3), 4742 (The Hill-D, 10/20)
New Hampshire 2: Bass 43, Kuster 38 (UNH, 10/3)
New Mexico 2: Pearce 46, Teague 42 (The Hill, 10/6), 54-44 (Albuquerque Journal, 10/3)
New Jersey 3: Runyan 40, Adler 37 (Zogby, 10/22)
New York 19: Hayworth 44, Hall 42 (PPP, 9/12), 43-43 (The Hill-D, 10/20
New York 20: Gibson 51, Murphy 42 (Siena, 10/25)
New York 23: Doheny 51, Owens 37 (POS, 9/23)
New York 29: Reed 44, Zeller 30 (Siena, 9/16)
North Carolina 2: Ellmers 39, Etheridge 38 (SurveyUSA, 6/16)
North Carolina 4: Lawson 47, Price 46 (Action, 8/10)
North Carolina 7: Pantano 46, McIntyre 45 (9/26)
North Dakota: Berg 52, Pomeroy 42 (Rasmussen, 10/18)
Ohio 1: Chabot 53, Driehaus 41 (SurveyUSA, 10/3)
Ohio 6: Johnson 46, Wilson 44 (POS, 10/?)
Ohio 13: Ganley 41, Sutton 43 (Ayers/AAF, 8/19)
Ohio 15: Stivers 47, Kilroy 38 (The Hill, 10/6)
Ohio 16: Renacci 49, Boccieri 35 (Ayers/AAF, 8/21), 43-39 (The Hill, 10/6)
Ohio 18: Gibbs 43, Space 43, Sutton 5 (On Message, 8/4)
Oregon 5: Bruun 51, Schrader 41 (SurveyUSA, 10/20)
Pennsylvania 3: Kelly 44, Dahlkemper 37 (Mercyhurst, 10/?)
Pennsylvania 7: Meehan 47, Lentz 26 (Franklin, 9/19), 49-45 (Monmouth, 10/7)
Pennsylvania 8: Fitzpatrick 46, Murphy 36 (Franklin, 9/19), 43-46 (The Hill-D, 10/20)
Pennsylvania 10: Marino 44, Carney 38 (Critical Insights, 10/13), 41-41(The Hill-D, 10/20)
Pennsylvania 11: Barletta 48, Kanjorski 43 (The Hill-D, 10/26)
Rhode Island 1: Loughlin 41, Cicilline 41 (POS, 10/21)
South Carolina 5: Mulvaney 49, Spratt 39 (The Hill-D, 10/26)
South Dakota: Noem 47, Herseth-Sandlin 44 (Rasmussen, 10/7)
Tennessee 4: DesJarlais 45, Lincoln 40 (POS-R, 10/15)
Tennessee 8: Fincher 47, Herron 37 (The Hill-D, 10/13)
Texas 17: Flores 52, Edwards 40 (The Hill-D, 10/26)
Texas 23: Canseco 43, Rodriguez 37 (OnMessage, 8/16)
Texas 27: Farenthold 44, Ortiz 36 (OnMessage-R, 10/11?)
Virginia 2: Rigell 42, Nye 36 (The Hill, 10/6)
Virginia 5: Hurt 46, Perriello 40 (Roanoke College, 10/11)
Virginia 9: Griffith 47, Boucher 46 (SurveyUSA, 10/26)
Virginia 11: Fimian 42, Connolly 37 (ccAdvertising, 9/29)
Washington 3: Herrerra 53, Heck 42 (SurveyUSA, 10/14)
Wisconsin 7: Duffy 46, Lassa 39 (We Ask America, 10/19)
Wisconsin 8: Ribble 48, Kagan 45 (PPP/Daily KOS, 10/26)
No polling exists for four more seats widely expected to go Republican:
Louisiana 3: Landry v. Sangisetti. Cook PVI: R+12
Kansas 3: Yoder v. Moore Cook PVI: R+4
Tennessee 6: Black v. Carter. Cook PVI: R+13

There are 30 more seats where the Republican party is shown to be competitive:
Polls have indicated a Republican lead in several of these seats, but we selected the best poll available, not the most Republican-leaning one.

Arkansas 4: Rankin 41, Ross 44, Drake (Green) 5 (Diamond State Consulting, 10/8)
California 18: Berryhill 44, Cardoza 50 (SurveyUSA, 10/6) Connecticut 1: Brickley 45, Larson 52 (CT Capitol Report/MRG, 10/5)
Florida 25: Rivera 33, Garcia 40, Arrojo 7, Porter 2 (Greenberg-D, 9/19*)
Georgia 2: Keown 46, Bishop 47 (POS, 9/28)
Idaho 1: Lanrador 44, Minnick 47 (Mason-Dixon, 10/25) Indiana 2: Walorski 44, Donnelly 45 (Ayers, 8/19), 43-48 (EPIC-MRA, 10/26)
Indiana 9: Young 41, Hill 42 (POS, 7/28)
Iowa 2: Miller-Meeks 40, Loebsack 41, Sicard 6 (Tarrance, 9/14)
Iowa 3: Zaun 51, Boswell 41 (Ayers-R, 8/18); 41-48 (Bennet-D., 9/3)
Kentucky 3: Lally 46, Yarmouth 50 (SurveyUSA, 10/25)
Kentucky 6: Barr 44, Chandler 48 (Mason-Dixon, 10/23)
Maine 1: Scotras 40, Pingree 45 (Critical Insights, 10/?)
Minnesota 1: Demmer 42, Waltz 37 (SurveyUSA, 10/15) Minnesota 8: Cravaack 42, Oberstar 45 (POS-R, 10/4) Mississippi 2: Marcy 34, Thompson 35 (JMC Enterprises-R, 9/20)
New Jersey 6: Little 45, Pallone 52 (Monmouth, 10/26)
New Jersey 12: Sipprelle 46, Holt 51 (Monmouth, 10/13)
New Mexico 1: Barela 43, Heinrich 50 (Daily KOS/PPP, 9/26)
New Mexico 3: Mullins 43, Lujan 49 (Daily KOS/PPP, 9/26)
New York 4: Becker 45, McCarthy 46 (McLaughlin-R, 10/6)
New York 13: Grimm 38, McMahon 46 (Barry Zeplowitz & Assoc, 9/23)
North Carolina 8: Johnson 45, Kissell 46 (SurveyUSA, 10/6)
North Carolina 11: Miller 44, Shuler 45 (SurveyUSA, 7/25)
Oregon 1: Cornilles 40, Wu 46 (Moore, 5/27)
Pennsylvania 12: Burns 41, Critz 48 (Grove Insight-D, 9/9)
Washington 2: Koster 47, Larsen 50 (SurveyUSA, 10/3)
Washington 9: Muri 46, Smith 49 (Survey USA, 9/16)
West Virginia 1: McKinley 39, Olivero 42 (The Hill-D, 10/13)
Wisconsin 3: Kapanke 38, Kind 44 (POS, 7/19)

[NorCoGOP]

Colorado 4: Gardner 50, Markey 39 (Ayers, 8/29), 44-41 (The Hill, 10/6)

I predict 53-47 on election day for Gardner - Markey is now part of the growing crowd under the DNC bus who's funding was withdrawn recently - Gardners ads are running 5:1 to Markey's, as is the mail, yard signs, etc....

...she should make sure it's a good concession speech - she's had plenty of time to write it.

[ohiobuckeye1997]

excellent post! Bookmark for later reference!

[Dr. Ursus]

Yipes! I may have to run out an get another bottle of Moet!

[Dr. Ursus]

Yipes! I may have to run out and get another bottle of Moet!

[Deagle]

Ah come on... you are just trying to get people excited before the event! You know that I will have to get two bottles of bourbon now - just in case you’re right...heh.

Let the good times roll...I hope. Anything over 50 is just gravy.

[cripplecreek]

Just another data point

According to the Walberg campaign in Michigan, National Research has the race at 49-36 in favor of Walberg on Oct 21st.

[dirtboy]

There are even more seats under the polling radar. There have been no independent polls in PA-13. The only outfit with the money to poll the district is incumbent Allyson Schwartz's campaign. And what is she doing? Well, she had been doing nothing but sitting on her $3 million war chest until about three weeks ago. And then she started running positive TV ads. And then sending out attack mailings against opponent Dee Adcock, whose main problem has been name recognition. And then she suddenly was willing to debate and hold townhalls. And then she ran attack TV ads.

To me, that is the sign of an incumbent who is scared of her internal polling. IMO there are many such surprises out there waiting to happen.

[MrB]

I was going to say “I wonder if the elitists will now get it - we don’t want them meddling in our lives”.

But, I know they won’t. They’ll just take this rejection of them as an affirmation of their own superiority, and claim that WE are the ones that don’t get it.

[BigSkyFreeper]

It’s predictions like this that raise people’s expectations. If it falls way short, then people will be all doom and gloom a week from now.

[ComputerGuy]

North Carolina 4: Lawson 47, Price 46 (Action, 8/10)

Price was unseated in 1994. Hopefully, it will happen again.

[Sybeck1]

This is going to be one long week!

If this is true, Time magazine will be committing media malpractice if The Tea Party isn't Man of the Year!

[Anti-Hillary]

Got another one for you:

OR 4- DeFazio(D) v. Robinson(R) 44%-40% in the latest poll

[dynachrome]

Good news on markey. I hoped the NRA endorsement didn’t mean squat.

[GlockThe Vote]

I hope Nan Hayworth wins in NY. She is close to me and really has been kicking butt.

[B Knotts]

We won’t know for sure until the votes come in... :-)

I think we’ll be able to maybe get some hint of how things are going to turn out by watching IN-2 and KY-3. Those states’ polls close earliest, I think, and those are both Democrat seats that are rated Leans Dem by RCP. If those go GOP, especially by a significant margin...then, all bets are off, and we could see a scenario like yours start to play out.

[EDINVA]

And out of nowhere, we can hope, is VA-8, one of the highest military populated districts in the US. Incumbent Moran(D) last week said his R opponent, Patrick Murray, didn’t have any public service background. Murray served in the Army for 27 years.

[SoFloFreeper]

We ought to believe the Republicans will lose 40 more seats.

Then we’ll work to save them.

Don’t buy the hype—Americans bought the Obama hype and it was a lie.

Pray, Work, Vote.

Afterwards, take a week off and then begin the work for 2012. The battle against these communists will never end.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Remember 1994 was the reaction to a THREAT to overhaul the health care system (”HillaryCare”). While Obama initially enjoyed more popularity than Hillary, the bill he produced was, if anything, worse.

The Dems will learn their lesson: Fabian socialism has to fly below the radar, the as has for the last 80 years.

We are still screwed. This is merely a two year stay of execution. The sheeple will be pleading for a messiah to lead them to the promised land again in two-four years.

[DarthVader]

Lepanto PING!