Who's Going to Vote This Year? [Analysis: Polling data favors Ds]

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/22/2010 | Sean Trende

[SeattleBruce]

"...But an alternate reading is that the exit poll data from 2009, as well as other data pointing to a significantly more energized Republican party, suggests the electorate this year may be far closer to 2004. If this turns out to be a more accurate assessment of the electorate, we could well see some Republican candidates outperforming the polls by 3-4 point margins similar to the results for Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey last November."

[SeattleBruce]

Perhaps this is a no brainer - but encouraging in that it helps to explain some of these 'tightening' races and gives teeth to our suspicions.

[republicangel]

Is that headline correct?

[Perdogg]

No it is not. What he meant to say was polling data had democrat bias and the GOP were underpolled..

[Clump]

I remember 2004 quite well. This is not the same. It should be a bigger GOP year based on what I see.

[Steamburg]

An exceptionally torturous twisting of the numbers for a statistically desired result...

The bottom line looks like a question of are more Republicans lying about their intention to vote or are more Democrats lying. In addition, when we look at the giant oversampling of democrats in the last few weeks. We get the question, are they going to vote for the party?

[TruthShallSetYouFree]

[Analysis: Polling data favors Ds]

You should ask the Moderator to change the word "data" to "methodology."

[nhwingut]

Right. The polling data has been oversampling Ds all year. And the Rs will outperform the polls.

I have been saying add 3-4 points to every poll you see.

Every tossup will go R. Bank on it.

[nhwingut]

You should ask the Moderator to change the word "data" to "methodology."

Or... (Polling Methodology Oversampling Dems)... That would be less confusing.

[almcbean]

Bottom line-the only poll that matters is the one on November 3.

[concerned about politics]

Perhaps this is a no brainer

Suspense is good for ratings. I'll bet more people visit the Real Clear Politics site when the races seem too close to call. A little push here or a little push there keeps the suspense up.

I pay attention to Rasmussen, though. They're usually the closest.
This year is harder to judge than other years. Conservatives are basically quiet, hard working people. They don't flaunt. They're the ones seething under the radar. They'll come out quietly in greater numbers this year.

What concerns me is voter fraud. There's so many bogus absentee ballots turned in, no one knows who wins in the end. The right has to have twice the number of voters just to break even, and there's going to be a LOT of fraud this time. Soros has sent millions to left wing extremist groups this year instead of to the democrat candidates. The extremists are going to break every rule in the book and then some, because now they're running wild.

[God luvs America]

agreed- two things people are forgetting and the criminal liberal media willfully ignores in this whole equation:

1: Independents who voted for the rats in ‘06/’08 have swung Republican...

2: though the ayatollah has high approval marks in the black community he’s also ignited a conservative movement in that black community that we’ve never seen....i believe the count is 32 black Americans are running on Republican tickets in 11 days, many Tea Party backed candidates...the ripple in ‘10 will be huge moving forward...

[Personal Responsibility]

I’ve been saying the same thing. Any republican within 3-4% on election day will win.

[painter]

....i believe the count is 32 black Americans are running on Republican tickets in 11 days, many Tea Party backed candidates.

I think it is 38 black Americans and all of them are backed by the Tea Party.

[Disambiguator]

Bottom line-the only poll that matters is the one on November 3.

I hope you plan on voting early.

[concerned about politics]

I’ve been saying the same thing. Any republican within 3-4% on election day will win.

Zogby said we should always add at least 5 points to the Republican side in every poll, because the right is much harder to catch, and they're more apt to hang up on pollers when the pollers do get through to them.
Today, most people use cell phones. Those who answer land line phones and sit through a poll are more apt to be government dependents (which means they're more prone to vote democrat to vote themselves bigger checks).
Because of technology and the right wing being employed, it's hard for the pollers to do their jobs. Most of the respondents are once a monther democrats sitting at home waiting for the free handout to show up in the mail box. This explains why the polls are always democrat heavy. What else have the democrats got to do all day?

[bgill]

I doubt that. The GOP will be out voting because they’re the ones ticked off. The RATS won’t be out in numbers because there is nothing for them to get fired up about.

[Foolsgold]

My boss used to own and run a telephone phone room to verify telemarketers orders. He was asked many times to run polls for many different things, he would ask them what results that they wanted so he knew how to write the questions.

[Vinnie]

I just got back from the polling place.
Early voting in my town opened at 11AM today. The line was longer than the iPhone Apple store line a few months ago. IOW loooong.
We decided to go back another time.

[rwfromkansas]

I think fraud is overestimated on both sides. GOP think the Dems have some amazing cheating operation, and same for the Dems about the GOP. I am sure fraud does cost us 1-2 percent in some races, but I doubt it goes much beyond that most of the time.

[denydenydeny]

Exit polls have become increasingly politicized in the last few years--dangerously so because for the Left, any variance between exit polls and actual vote totals is a prima facie case of Republican election fraud. When all along it's the exit polls that are fraudulent.