“Rasmussen is showing basically no gain for O’Donnell over a two month period.”
CO caught and beat Castle from -19 within 3 weeks. Now that people have seen she’s not the dunce that the media lied about, she may be helped by the anti-incumbency wave. GOTV will tell the story in DE as elsewhere. Ras was wrong in MA by the way - although showing a surge. I hope he does one or two more snapshots - cause his last one had Castle in the mix. If he does one or two more, we’ll surely confirm or deny any surge for CO.
It might be possible to compare apples to apples with a different poll to see or not see any surge.
People rarely talk about likely voter models and the inability to get tea party races at all right in the primary.
The tea party candidate in Maine - LePage - went from 10% in the last poll less than a week before to 37% on election day.
There isn’t “plenty” of time, but there is enough time. And Christine actually has the money advantage this time. She was outspent 10-1 apparently in the primary. She has twice as much money in the bank right now as Coons, and to now, she has spent only a little bit more than Coons.
All of these things point to Christine closing the gap in the polls and then winning.