Arizona Rep. Grijalva latest incumbent in tough reelection race (Ruth McClung for CD7)

The Hill ^ | October 12, 2010 | Sean J. Miller

[jazusamo]

Even liberal Democrats from normally safe districts are embroiled in tough reelection races this cycle.

Two recent polls show Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) — who hasn't faced a tough challenge in his eight years in the House — within the margin of error against an unknown Republican.



The results mean that Grijalva, who co-chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is in a similar position to his colleagues holding battleground districts in the state.

Arizona Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell, Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords are also in tough reelection races — raising the possibility Republicans could end up with seven of the state’s eight House seats. 


Sensing Grijalva may be vulnerable, national Republicans are starting to back his challenger, Ruth McClung, a rocket scientist employed by a defense contractor. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney announced Tuesday he was supporting her and, earlier this week, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin gave her an endorsement via Facebook.

Polls show her in a dead heat with the four-term Democrat.

An automated survey conducted Oct. 5-6 by the Phoenix-based Summit Consulting Group found McClung leading Grijalva 39-37 with 24 percent undecided. The poll of 1,807 likely general voters has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percent.

A second automated survey, this one by Colorado-based Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, showed Grijalva in the lead by two points, with 13 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 29 and surveyed 686 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.74 percent.



Grijalva did not respond to a request for comment.

McClung said the results are consistent with numbers her campaign is getting.



"We do feel these are true results," McClung told The Ballot Box. "He's made a lot of people really unhappy.

"He's called for a boycott of his own state at a time when we’re second in poverty," she said. "The boycott was just a slap in the face. It was almost the straw that broke the camel’s back."

Shortly after the Arizona Legislature passed a controversial law against illegal immigration this spring, Grijalva called for an economic boycott of his home state. 

The law, known as S.B. 1070, calls for law enforcement officers, "when practical, to determine the immigration status" of a suspect. If the person is found to have violated immigration law, they’re to be transferred to the federal authorities.



Critics have said it promotes racial profiling, but polls have shown the law to be popular — a Rasmussen Reports survey in April found that 70 percent of likely voters in Arizona approve of the legislation, while just 23 percent oppose it.



On Monday McClung got an endorsement from Palin, who cited Grijalva's call for a boycott as one of the reasons she's backing McClung.

"Ruth is running against a four term incumbent who is so out of touch that he actually called for a boycott of his own constituents," Palin wrote on her Facebook page.

 

In addition to anger over Grijalva's call for a boycott, McClung is also benefiting from the growth of the Tea Party movement in the Southwest. "I've definitely been reaching out to the Tea Party," she said. 



Still, observers are skeptical this race will be competitive. Grijalva's lowest winning percentage was 59 percent of the vote, and that was in 2002 when he was first elected. In 2008, he took 63 percent, while President Obama netted 57 percent of the vote in the district. 

 

The district is almost 55 percent Hispanic. 

 

"It's a district drawn in favor of a Latino candidate," said Rodolfo Espino, a political science professor at Arizona State University. "To say this race is within two percentage points, I’m wary of that."

 

Espino disputed the suggestion that Grijalva's calls for a boycott led to a drop in support, noting he's recently tempered those statements. Moreover, when he initially made the comments, some polls showed a majority of Latino voters actually favored a boycott.

 

Espino said the GOP would like to win what they regard as a "trophy" district, but there are several things working in the Democrat’s favor. Grijalva had close to $75,000 banked at the start of August, while McClung had only close to $16,000. 

 

The National Republican Congressional Committee has yet to commit any resources to McClung's race. She is, however, getting support from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who held a joint press conference with her on Monday.

 

"Of course we would like to get more help, but we've been making due," she said. "We've been frugal."

 



 

[jazusamo]

Ruth McClung for Congress

[Parley Baer]

Let’s hope Ruth McClung can beat this POS.

[Liz]

Much of the Election-Fail excitement surrounds radical leftist Raul Grijalva who is trailing political neophyte Ruth McClung by two points (Magellan Strategies poll).

Grijalva's anti-America/anti-Arizona hatred surfaced when he called for a boycott of his own state in response to Arizona's new policies on illegals. Grijalva who is two points behind, has a solid gerrymandered Dem district of latinos. He Chairs the leftist Congressional Progressive Caucus..........way too radical even for a Democrat leaning district.

THE BEST CONGRESSMAN MEXICO EVER HAD

US Rep. Steve King (R-NY) to Laura Ingraham: " I’m wondering if we look at the map of Arizona Congressman Grijalva’s congressional district, if we haven’t already ceded that component of Arizona to Mexico, judging by the voice that comes out of Grijalva. Grijalva’s advocating for Mexico rather than the United States and against the rule of law, which is one of the central pillars of American exceptionalism. "

Hundreds Protest AZ Congressman Raul Grijalva at tea party protest
June, 27, 2010 — http://nicedeb.files.wordpress.com

=====================================

REFERENCE Grijalva is a Social Democrat (Marxist)---- co-chair of the House Progressive Caucus. He spent practically no money on his reelection, leaning on his Mexican background for votes in this heavily and poorly educated Chicano district. Grijalva put together a Congressional panel against SB 1070---ending birthright citiznship.

=========================================

Reconquistas like Grijalva, squatting in OUR Congress, made a career out of helping illegals drain whatever they could out of America-----to extort taxpayers so that we finance Reconquista. Third World reconquista types are chomping at the bit....to incite revolution....eager to begin the takeover.

Reconquista shock troops at Phoenix Capital protest, May 29, 2010.

[jazusamo]

Let’s hope Ruth McClung can beat this POS.

Amen to that. It's looking like she has a decent chance and it's going to fool a lot of people if she does win it.

[jazusamo]

Thanks, good post!

[jazusamo]

Please bump the Freepathon and donate or become a monthly donor!

[Clintonfatigued]

This is the scum who called for a boycott of his own state because it wants to secure its borders. A victory in this heavily ‘Rat district would be a real prize.

[Liz]

This oughta clinch it for Ruth McClung---Grijalva and Ohaha, shoulder to shoulder.

[MichaelNewton]

Go Ruth!

Again, no mention of Janet Contreras. She has a good chance to beat Ed Pastor, IMHO, but not polling has been done.

For those who don’t know, Janet Contreras gained famed for her open letter that Glenn Beck read on his program. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHkYxvwR9M8

We need more people like Ruth McClung (never met her) and Janet Contreras (me her, she is great) in Congress.

[pissant]

It will be good to see the fat racist mexirodent unemployed

[Oatka]

Espino said the GOP would like to win what they regard as a "trophy" district, but there are several things working in the Democrat’s favor. Grijalva had close to $75,000 banked at the start of August, while McClung had only close to $16,000.
and
The National Republican Congressional Committee has yet to commit any resources to McClung's race.

The GOP - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory - as usual.

Help Ruth out HERE. At this stage every dollar helps.

[jazusamo]

Janet Contreras, AZ CD4

Janet Contreras for Congress

[jazusamo]

BUMP to that!

[jazusamo]

Agreed and thanks.

[MadMax, the Grinning Reaper]

Grijalva is so pro-Mexico that he farts in Spanish. Besides that, being the head of the COngressional Progressive Caucus makes him the number one Red (competition: Waters, D. Davis, Conyers, Lee, Schakowsky, Filner, any Dem womam from Ohio, Calif, NY or Florida).

Let’s send this maricon packing.

[phillyguyinaz]

Go Ruth Go!!!!

Rauuuuuul is a racist, anti-American scumbag.

[mwl8787]

McCain and Kyl need to get off their asses and get Ruth some money.

[Oatka]

Agreed and thanks.

Sent her $20.00. Just wish these candidates would use PayPal - might generate donations from those who don't want to use their credit cards.

[SandRat]

Yes it would.

[fifedom]

"while McClung had only close to $16,000."

That will change fast. I just donated $25 by credit card. I pay with a seldom used card that I will cancel shortly after the election.