Posted on 10/04/2010 12:17:03 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.
Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I saw this happen in the Washington Post and Ras polls in the VA governors race last year. McDonnell had a double digit lead over Deeds after the convention and primaries. This closed to about 4% then went back up to 9% the week before the election. McDonnell won by 23%.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.Wow. If Pubs are tracking equally as well within their party as Dems, and we would have to assume they are, and they hold an 18% point lead among "unaffiliated" voters, what does that say about the sample weighting of Dems to Pubs in Rasmussen's poll? I sure wish I had a subscription to Rasmussen, so I could check out the internals of this poll.
Exactly. When was the last time they oversampled Republicans? I've never seen a poll that's oversampled Republicans before.
“The problem for the Dems is that they have to defend some 50 seats in otherwise red districts. I don’t think that they will be able to do that. Some deep blue districts may be getting even bluer, but that isn’t going to help them hold control.”
Excellent points.
Do folks talk to non rock ribbed conservatives?
Many many many people are uninformed, wishy washy wusses.
They heard that maybe too many tea partiers are going to vote or get elected, that President Obama wants them to vote, etc. That may be the full depth of their political engagement.
And I can tell you there are a lot of people who fear the “Christian Right”. Just reality. People are wimps and easily sheep-herded.
Just look at how many on here will jump on a conservative as soon as something negative is alleged. Multiply that by 10 for the average person.
This is one poll. Realclearpolitics average forecasts 47 Repubs in the Senate with five toss-ups; 207 Repubs in the House with 38 toss-ups; and 27 Repub Governors with eight toss-ups. The Repubs need only 12 toss-ups to take back the House and four toss-up senate seats to win. If the Dems keep the majority in both houses it will be a combination of conservative voter apathy and Dem scorched earth politics. If this happens, the Repub Party is dead and by 2012 we will see a new and ferocious conservative party. By then, of course, the US will have been destroyed.
Negative nimrods on this thread:
Percentages don’t matter in “potential voters”. What really matters is our side is fired up and pissed and will be voting much more than the other side who sees their beloved messiah failing.
The Dems have a big advantage in terms of money and there is the power of incumbency. The races always tighten up the closer you get to election day. Turnout will be key, especially in the midterms. I still believe our side is more motivated. But this will be no cakewalk.
You're correct. It's not just rumors. It's factual. The next unemployment number will be 9.7% (up from 9.6%).
“Exactly. When was the last time they oversampled Republicans?”
As good as Rasmussen is (and he has been the most accurate), he still comes up short sometimes - like in the Brown polling, et al. Think about the relative difference between Restoring Honor and ‘stablishing communism rallies. Think about the impact of that enthusiasm at the end of this GOTV cycle.
Advantage good guys.
Now let’s not rest on our laurels - let’s GOTV and contribute and get ‘er DONE!!
races always tighten in the last few weeks. This is nothing surprising.
“With all due respect, now’s not the time for clucking at the polls. Nows the time to GOTV in our localities and states.”
I did not predict demise in VA, NJ or MA. I’m merely making observations, as an untrained observer. Kind of like a sports fan watching a game.
Anyone who would decide whether to vote or not based on a post by me, or anyone else for that matter, is an idiot.
I’ll happily be voting straight ticket R, and I will vote.
Just seems like a bad sample. Gallup has Obama A/D at 46/48 today among all adults.
“You’re correct. It’s not just rumors. It’s factual. The next unemployment number will be 9.7% (up from 9.6%).”
Yes, I read that. Then I thought about if it were possible that the obummer feds could somehow manipulate, and I think they somehow have seen the U3 rate drop despite rising unemployment claims (through the silly temp census jobs, or what have you.) So I thought, given the stakes in 29 days - I put nothing past them - including outright blatant statistical LIES.
However, I hope you’re right, and that is the FACT that is indeed released (although the idiot propaganda ministers will attempt to spin it “positively”) because it it cannot help them in the mid-terms.
The proper term is “Nattering nabobs of negativity”. ;)
Well, you lost yesterday. Let's all hope you are on a roll! :)
Nice win BTW. Browns are on the rise.
Well, that oughta be good for a couple points in favor of the GOP.
There - fixed it for you.
Not for Scott Brown.
Well, if you’re Martha Coakley it tightened...and reversed. That’s my fear.
It looks like everything is tightening and the Rats will be in position to steal a few races. I have been operating under the mindset that we will barely pick up any seats and will never take anything for granted.
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