I saw this happen in the Washington Post and Ras polls in the VA governors race last year. McDonnell had a double digit lead over Deeds after the convention and primaries. This closed to about 4% then went back up to 9% the week before the election. McDonnell won by 23%.
IMO, Anti-incumbency will be the message of the day on Nov. 2nd.
If a seat is held by someone the challenger will win if he/she is within 3-4% in the polls. Any empty seat will be won by any Republican within 3%.
That’s right... Dick Morris said the break against the incumbent, usually happens about a week or so before Election Day.
I’m not worried about these Generic polls, because I’ve seen them fluctuate too much.