Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 45%, Democrats 42%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/4/2010 | Scott Rasmussen

[Tennessean4Bush]

Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.

Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot. 

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.

[struggle]

Sunday morning poll.

[Southnsoul]

That’s right... Dick Morris said the break against the incumbent, usually happens about a week or so before Election Day.

I’m not worried about these Generic polls, because I’ve seen them fluctuate too much.

[ConservativeTeen]

Even if these numbers are accurate, remember that there are inner city districts that vote 90%+ for the Democrat.

[DarthVader]

Good point! There was a strong anti-Democrat sentiment in VA from Tim Kaine and Obozo only added to it.

[nbenyo]

Rasmussen releases this poll every Monday. This is the lowest advantage for the GOP all year.

[DarthVader]

Here is some news which will drive the Dem #s down again:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2601439/posts

[crosslink]

The context of this poll is Ras had this at 43 43 when the pubs won in 1994.

[SmokingJoe]

This is why I’ve been discounting Dick Morris’ rosy predictions of a “tsunami,” “wipeout,” etc. for the dems

Better think again.
Gallup from just today:
GOP Well Positioned Among Likely Midterm Voters (read ‘em & weep dems - Gallup 10/4)
Gallup ^ | 10/4/10 | gallup

Posted on Monday, October 04, 2010 5:41:10 PM by Ravi

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup's generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios.

Likely voters (higher turn out)
GOP 53%
Dems 40%

Likely voters(lower turn out)
GOP 56%
Dems 38%

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2601463/posts
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143363/GOP-Positioned-Among-Likely-Midterm-Voters.aspx

[italianquaker]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143363/GOP-Positioned-Among-Likely-Midterm-Voters.aspx

[Jim Noble]

What has improved the Dems chances in the last month?

People are getting a look at the Republican candidates.

[liberlog]

If you believe Gallup, the Dems chances haven’t improved at all. Everyone needs to take a few deep breaths, realize polls flucutuate. They aren’t the be-all and end-all. The important things are to contribute what you can to close races and encourage all like-minded citizens to vote!

[Major Matt Mason]

Yes, independents are the key. The GOP by themselves couldn't post a sweeping victory. But few independent voters are going to vote for a "D" this time around. The problem with these voters is that they can be unpredictable - they might show up on election day, but they might not. But I think the motivation is there this time around.

[Pox]

The only way this country will be saved is via the 2nd amendment and enough patriots who actually will have the fortitude to stand up and do what's necessary, IMO.

[DestroyLiberalism]

“Why kid ourselves? America is lost forever.”

So my question to you then is, what are you going to do about it?

Man, how I detest this doom-and-gloom talk.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Wow! Gallup is going the opposite direction than Ras. If Gallup is right, this will be an utter democrat wipeout of historic proportions. Take a look at the likely voter turnout models Gallup just reported: +13 GOP or +18 GOP, take your pick: Link to Gallup report

[Tennessean4Bush]

Wow! Gallup is going the opposite direction than Ras. If Gallup is right, this will be an utter democrat wipeout of historic proportions. Take a look at the likely voter turnout models Gallup just reported: +13 GOP or +18 GOP, take your pick: Link to Gallup report

[Tennessean4Bush]

Thanks for the post! Yeah I just saw that. The key is the likely voter turnout models - it should make liberals curl into the fetal position: +18 or +13 GOP. Unbelievable!!!!

[Tennessean4Bush]

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[fwdude]

Statistical noise, that’s all.

[FlingWingFlyer]

Republicans need to learn how to sling mud. That works every time it’s tried. The voters are gullible and still believe anything and everything they see on TV. If it’s on TV, it’s got to be the truth. You can’t fix stupid.