Posted on 09/29/2010 6:27:57 PM PDT by gumbyandpokey
CRACIUN RESEARCH POLL ON ALASKA US SENATE RACE Historic race proves difficult for Tea Party Candidate Joe Miller. One week after Lisa Murkowski’s announcement to run as a write-in candidate, she pulls ahead in the race for US Senate. The GOP Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, is trying to keep her seat in the Senate with a write-in campaign, she leads the field with 41% of voters choosing her over Republican nominee Joe Miller, 30%, and Democrat Scott McAdams at 19%.
(Excerpt) Read more at graphics8.nytimes.com ...
Never heard of this outfit. Rasmussen had Murkowski way behind with Miller well ahead of both her and the Dem.
Your argument is not sound.......it’s not major denial on our part, Craciun got it 30 points wrong in the Senate race this year and was wrong even as far back as 2006 Palin vs Knowles.....I’m not taking anything for granted but a leap of Murkoski numbers in this poll is ridiculous
She might do a little better if she put her uppers in for the photo.
So, don’t get disinterested. Just be vigilant and aware of all available information.
I loved my gumby and pokey figures when I was a child. Then my dog chewed them up and all that was left was pieces of wire and orange and green rubber. Garbage really, kind of like the polls you post.
Miller leads in the other polls. “Major league denial” of what?
Do Not Change Titles.
It's happened exactly once in US Senate history. Strom Thurmond in 1954. Lisa is no Strom!
I call BS! How much did Murkowski pay for these results? I put nothing past this bitter harridan.
Strom Thurmond, in the 40's.
No, the Alaska SoS has already said that as long as she can determine the "intent" of the voter, she will count it. So if someone writes in "Mickey Mouse", the GOP machine in Alaska can say, "Hmm, Micky Mouse... Murkowski... close enough!"
Lisa is no Strom!
I can see the resemblance if I squint.
Murkowski still confident she can overcome deficit August 25, 2010
".."I talked to Don Young last night and he was quick to remind me that in his last race he was behind the whole time and came out on top," Murkowski said.
Other Murkowski supporters were still shocked Wednesday by the returns.
“Pretty much today is shock and dismay,” said Jean Craciun with Craciun Research, who served as a strategic advisor to the Murkowski campaign..."
Actually 300 is a fairly reasonable statistical sample in Alaska where less than 330,000 people voted in the last general election.
“This is a joke, right?”
_______________
Essentially, yes.
Get a load of some of the stuff in the poll’s internals:
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“Thus, the margin of error is +/- 5.7%. For subgroups, the margin of error is higher.”
Almost 6 percent MOE! that’s nearly TWICE Rasmussen’s MOE of 3 percentage points. I’ve never before seen a poll with a MOE this high.
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“Additionally, Craciun establishes quotas for gender, age, political party and electoral districts to approximate historical general election voting behavior, eliminating the need for weighting the data.”
Actually, what this “pollster” is doing with these quotas is pre-weighting the data, but voters will not be voting in this election in the proportion they were in 2008, for example. These quotas are completely bogus thumb-on-the-scales crap.
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“Most Alaskans view themselves as moderate or middle of the road.”
This is total BS. Alaska may be many things, but one of them ain’t moderate. Most Alaskans identify as conservative or libertarian:
“Politically, Alaska is heavily Republican, with a libertarian streak. In national politics, it has been solidly Republican since the 1970s because national Democrats have favored locking up natural resources. George W. Bush carried Alaska 59%-28% in 2000 and 61%-36% in 2004, carrying even the traditionally Democratic Panhandle and the Native-majority bush country beyond Anchorage and Fairbanks.”
http://election.nationaljournal.com/states/ak.htm
In 2008, Palin and the old guy carried Alaska by 60 percent to just 38 percent for O’Biden.
Finally, I follow polling pretty closely, and I’ve never even heard of Caraciun Research. So I looked them up. Turns out the company is Anchorage-based and was hired by Democrat Sen. Mark Begich, who wrote a “clent testimonial” which the company has featured prominently on its Web page, LOL! Also the principal, Jean Craciun, isn’t even a statistician. She’s a bloody sociologist! Begich called her a “team player” in his testimonial. Yeah, I’ll just bet she is!
I smell a big, fat, Democrat rat in this poll. It’s total moose manure.
- JP
What I’d like to know is why is the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, funded primarily by the federal government, paying for a poll of the Alaska Senate race?
The "Story Lady" is on a roll! They were having a blast with this on FNC this morning. LOL!
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