Posted on 09/27/2010 4:54:17 PM PDT by JSDude1
The only limit on Republican gains in the midterm elections is that the GOP may be aiming too low. There are dozens of additional House seats we may be able to win if we would just adjust our sights upward.
An analysis of the published polling data on eighty House races indicates that there are 54 districts now represented by Democrats in which Republicans are now ahead and another 19 where they are within five points and where the Democratic incumbent is under 50% of the vote. That’s 73 likely wins. (The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent, so if a Congressman is significantly under 50%, even though he may have a lead, he is likely to lose).
Why aren’t there more than 73? Because we haven’t tried. Only about 160 of the Democrats’ 239 Congressional Districts are even remotely considered to be in play. But that playbook is badly out of date. The Republican message has raced far ahead of the GOP campaign and put a lot of new seats in play. We just have to work these districts to win them.
Conventional wisdom at the time held that the GOP would have a pickup, but even the most optimistic estimates was in the neighborhood of 20-25 seats - and it ended up being more than double that.
So if people are already predicting 73 seats, why not go for 150+ seats!
Careful. You and Dick are making me dizzy.
If such a change in the House makeup actually came about, wouldn't that give the surviving Democrats an unmistakable mandate to SIT DOWN AND SHUT UP!!?
I think Morris is right. It’s harder to identify who to give to in Congressional campaigns, all of a sudden they are in play and you’ve never even heard of who is running as an out of district person. Wish the Republican party organizations were worth a $#!+.
Money is the real issue with these close races, that and fraud. The Dems have so much dirty off-the-books cash they can bury our guys in ads.
The beauty of it is, that ads don't seem to be working anymore. Earlier this year, Martha Coakley outspent Scott Brown by a 5 to 1 margin and still lost big. I remember the week leading up that pivotal election on Jan 19. It was MARTHA, MARTHA, MARTHA all the time on the airwaves.
I think there is a huge block of voters in this country who have had enough and are determined to vote AGAINST the incumbent Democrats.
First of all, Dick, who’s “we”? And secondly, Dick, let’s not spread so thin that we lose a lot of close ones. 60-80 seats is a great win. Much beyond that you are taking entrenched liberal seats that will probably just flip back as soon as the next liberal darling is on top of the ticket after Obama.
Dick Morris is dreaming. The Dems are going to demonize the GOP between now and the election. That will probably reduce the number of seats that they pick up.
And the new Republicans had better concentrate on more than just the economy because an economy managed on Sharia law and principles is totally useless.
Ever heard of a Muslim country with a booming economy or any economy at all? Ever heard of a non-Muslim emigrating to a Muslim country? Ha!
Yep, I remember. That night was the most fun I'd had since election night 1980.
And they have already captured 100% of the dead vote.
If we have the funds to fight back (and to correctly paint their record) then those “gains” if there are any..will be negated (and I suspect more on our side)! JUST MY 2.
J.S.
So what? We win marginal seats, why not, at least we have a chance to hold them (and to convince those in these districts that Conservative governance is the right way. That that right way will produce results and bring prosperity.
We need to win as MUCH as we can, heck 100, I say go for 435 (plus the non-voting “delegates”)!~
J.S.
What does he know? He sucks toes.
Dick is right. Look at how many seats keep coming our way as our efforts continue. Barney Franks is competitive. Carney race in PA finally flipped. Lib pendants are calling PA Senate and Gov. races unwinnable for Dims right now. There are signs that this can be done by focusing our message and using funds wisely. If you see Obummer and Clinton heading to a district, they are in real trouble.
If such a number actually came about along with similar gains in the Senate, there would be a race the next morning to see which Democrat could position themselves first as the 2012 alternative to Barak Obama. If this administration keeps sinking, Evan Bayh or someone like that will be the Democrat candidate in 2012. Unfortunately, for Hillary, she has put herself in a position from which it would be hard for her to launch a presidential campaign.
Shut up, Morris. By putting up such a gaudy number, if the GOP only wins a majority, the msm can say that it was a “disappointing result” and they better work closely with the defeated Dems because they don’t have a mandate....same old story every time Republicans win.
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