Drew Angerer/AP Photo Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Posted on 09/23/2010 5:20:45 PM PDT by neverdem
Drew Angerer/AP Photo Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Back in happier days for Democrats, say early 2009 when New York Gov. David Paterson chose Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, it was thought her pro-gun and fiscal hawk stands and her ties to a conservative part of the state would give her a general-election edge.
And it still may. But a recent Quinniapiac University poll showed Gillibrand with just a six-point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Joseph DioGuardi in a survey of likely voters, with the senator at 48 percent and her GOP challenger at 42 percent.
What's really noteworthy about this result is that the DioGuardi is not very well known at all.
It's just more evidence that incumbency, historically a benefit, isn't this year.
The poll indicates that Gillibrand has a 49 percent approval rate. Incumbents usually want to see this number above 50 percent, the higher the better, since it correlates strongly with which way voters go.
Mary Altaffer/AP Photo Joseph DioGuardi, the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate seat from New York.
Meanwhile, DioGuardi is more of a blank slate, at least for the voters surveyed. Sixty one percent didn't know enough about him to form an opinion.
What typically happens in a case like this where a better-known incumbent faces a poorly known challenger, the incumbent spends money on TV and radio ads to define the challenger.
So that's certainly something to watch for in coming weeks.
It’s early.
Early , possibly, but he better dam$ well start defining himself.
I heard DioGuardi on the radio today and he is good. Knows the issues and how to state them. I think by election day he will pull ahead.
One more thing. Here is another race that is short on cash. DioGuardi can use some donations.
Isn’t that the third different one today?
DiGourdi ahead, behind, no ahead, not behind.
Is he running low on campaign funds? I hope Tea Party Express stops by NY to lend a helping hand.
I think you’re right...peaking too early gives the opposition a strategy opportunity.
IMO, if an "electable" RINO blowhard like Peter King was the nominee, Gillibrand would be crusing to re-election right now, probably ahead by a 20 point margin (I believe hypotheical polls showing a matchup between the two verify my statement). DioGuardi polling within striking yet more proof that conservatives aren't "unelectable" in RAT majority states.
This is the right election cycle for DioGuardi to be running in, and it helps that Gillibrand has made little impression as a Senator. Her flip-flopping may have left her without a core of committed voters.
Being Chuckys yes person has not helped
I think that, if anything, Peter King is more conservative than DioGuardi. DioGuardi is considered a conservative in large part because he is pro-life (and thus more conservative than the average voter in the New Rochelle-based district that he used to represent), but from his words he appears to be quite liberal on economic issues (and he’s in favor of more government interference with financial institutions).
If DioGuardi is down by 6%-9%, then I would think that Peter King would be even about now (as would someone more conservative than either one).
In any event, DioGuardi is our candidate, and he’s the only one who can defeat Gillibrand right now. I hope that with Paladino bringing out conservative voters, and with Democrats not being very inspired by Gillibrand, that DioGuardi can pull off the upset. Let’s not have any pretences here: if DioGuardi wins, he’ll go straight to the top of the list of Democrat targets for 2012. but a win is a win, and I’ll take DioGuardi even if it’s for only two years.
Chuck U and Hillary had those kind of numbers in 2004 and 2006, respectively, but I don't remember blowout numbers before that, IIRC.
Yes, I heard Hannity tonight talking about DiGourdi’s lack of money. He also mentioned that Gillibrand and Cuomo worked in HUD together. And, not only is he dirty, but Gillibrand may be even more so. Together they got the ball rolling at Fannie & Freddie and are primarily responsible for the sub-prime mortgage fiasco.
There was a poll comissioned a while back asking NY voters about a potential King vs. Gillibrand matchup, and he had absolutely absymbal numbers and very high negatives from NY voters. I don't believe even 30% of NY voters said they would elect him Senator.
DioGuardi ain't Jesse Helms, but he was the tea-party backed candidate in the primary and certainly to the right of your typical Pataki-style NY RINO. The fact he's polling decent numbers statewide is one more blow against the GOP establishment candidates. Like here in Illinois where Bill Brady (who the GOP establishment wouldn't touch in the primary because he's an unapologetic conservative downstate Illinois Senator) is polling double-digits lead over the RAT, but the "electable" RINO Mark Kirk they hyped endlessly is struggling against the most crooked RAT on the ballot.
This seat and IL, DE, and VW are key. They are replacement seats and will get sworn in ASAP. These will also stop Harry Reid's "Cloture" of 60 votes and the Obama Agenda is done...
If Paladino gets a lead and has coattails, anything is possible...
Same senario in other states :-)...
Oh man a parody of that for her and her hubbie would be so biting....
Yeeeess, I remember. Is it on Hulu or Youtube?
Moniyahan would be the most recent previous case, and he indeed tended to win by such lopsided margins -- Patrick Moynihan (D), 67.3% Robert R. McMillan (R) 31.6%, for example. Of course the huge GOP tidal wave year of 1994 was an exception.
The rule tends to apply in presidential races and governor's races too -- RAT incumbents often win by huge margins in NY.
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