Posted on 09/10/2010 4:59:16 AM PDT by Kaslin
Young voter trends have fascinated me ever since the Obama-McCain bloodbath of 2008. As bleak as the statistics were two years ago, I've been building a case that Obama's youth landslide did not, and will not, guarantee permanent electoral or ideological doom for conservatives among Millenials.
Virginia offers a case in point. In 2008, voters 18-29 in Virginia backed Obama over McCain by a 21-point margin. One year later, the same cohort supported conservative Republican Bob McDonnell for Governor by ten points--a 31-point (D) to (R) swing.
Last week, the New York Times ran a piece describing younger voters' disenchantment with the Democratic Party. The lede captured the story's message:
The college vote is up for grabs this year — to an extent that would have seemed unlikely two years ago, when a generation of young people seemed to swoon over Barack Obama.
As the 2010 elections draw closer, some polls are vindicating the Times' report and my instincts. For instance, we recently noted Kentucky Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul's enormous lead among the youngest age bracket, and a survey in liberal California offers some encouraging news for a top Republican statewide office-seeker.
Survey USA's poll of California voters conducted in late August and early September reveals a 7-point lead for Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman over Democrat Jerry Brown, and a narrow 2-point advantage for GOP Senate hopeful Carly Fiorina over incumbent Barbara Boxer.
Delving into the survey's internals, Whitman and Fiorina track fairly closely among all age demographics except one: 18-34 year-olds. In the Governor contest, Brown holds a statistically insignificant 3-point edge over Whitman among young voters, whereas Boxer is dominating the same group by 24 points. Put another way, Whitman is outperforming her Republican counterpart by 21 points among younger voters, which partially explains her stronger overall poll position.
Why?
California Republican Party Vice Chairman, Jon Fleischman--who also operates the popular Flash Report blog--says the disparity boils down to two related factors: Quality of outreach and money. "Meg Whitman has spent a huge amount of money on ads and other voter contacts," he explained, "So she's been able to define herself and her candidacy forcefully and on her terms. Carly doesn't have the same level of resources, so she's been defined more by the media's coverage of her campaign."
Fleischman marveled at the breadth of Whitman's outreach campaign and her ability to reach such a wide spectrum of voters. "She's spent tons of money on the web, in social media, and on aggressive micro-targeting of different groups, including young people" he
said. "She even published a booklet for young voters and college students explaining why she's the best choice."
Whitman's youth-oriented web page, 'Gen-M', is a sophisticated online resource for Millenial voters in California. The page is broken down into two subsections: "Students for Meg" and "Young Professionals for Meg," aimed at older twentysomethings. The pages include profiles and photos of young Whitman supporters, links to the candidate’s twitter, facebook, youtube and flickr accounts, and user-friendly invitations to text the campaign, volunteer, donate, start a Gen-M chapter, or request a ballot. Users are encouraged to join other online Whitman-for-Governor coalitions, including those targeting women, Latinos, and African Americans.
Fiorina also offers a coalitions page, but it's fairly generic and not nearly as interactive. That's not a knock on Fiorina; it's a testament to the astonishing level of resources Whitman is pouring into her race.
Sleek online tools, fresh-faced coalition leaders, and facebook friends aside (although it's worth pointing out that Whitman dwarfs the state's other major Gubernatorial and Senate nominees with nearly 105,000 facebook supporters), 26-year-old California based columnist and author Ben Shapiro believes Whitman's advantage among young voters can largely be attributed to strong name recognition.
"Whitman spent an enormous amount of money in the primary, and now in the general [election] to get her name out there. People my age have seen her ads and billboards, and know who she is," Shapiro said. "It's been 30 years since Jerry Brown was Governor in California, and young people don't remember that. We weren't even born yet."
The name recognition effect is also boosting Boxer, Shapiro contends. "People just know who she is. Younger voters tend to be lazy, so they gravitate toward a name they recognize."
Granted, few--if any--candidates will ever come close to matching the former eBay CEO dollar-for-dollar in self funding. But Whitman's campaign can still serve as a template for successful outreach techniques, even if they're executed on a significantly smaller scale. Team Whitman is effectively modernizing two well-worn campaign principles: Reach voters where they are, and don't be afraid to state your case and ask for their vote.
It appears that quite a few young Californians are open to saying yes.
Whitman’s a flaming RINO. I suppose the only tangible benefit I see from her winning the governorship is coattails that may give to a Republican victory over the flaming idiot and Marxist Barbara Boxer.
Whitman has nothing to offer but more of the same or worse.
Wow - is this reaching, or what? MegaRINO has been pouring money into targeting the youth vote but still can't outpoll a sorry old retread Commie despite spending $150 million dollars? BUT, Meg is outperforming Carly-blah-blah-blah (who is massively trailing Boxer with the youth vote), so that is a positive thing?. I've heard of campaign spinning, but this guy is taking it to a new level.
Frankly Whitman just (might) surprize a lot of people.
Remember how many had high hopes for Arnold. Back in the day. Standing up to the dems, calling them “girly men”. Funniest thing in politics recently, but then he rolled over and went home, or something. Like he had a brain transplant.
Most likely, he never was conservative. I mean, how can one possibly work full time in Hollywood, surrounded by the kinds of people there, as an actual conservative? It’s a challenging environment, for anyone who’s not a flaming tu-tu.
As a lone, tough willed Republican standing in front of the leftist hoards in the Assembly, he (apparently) represented a symbol of conservative principles. So he seemed. Even though he never was any such thing. Arnold is, was and always has been a actor.
That’s what is now clear, in retrospect. He could care less about governing. He’s already back in his acting hat.
Not a (former) actor, thinking with admiration of another CA governor.
Arnold is an actor. He wants to be an actor. Now and in the future.
Actors work in Hollwood. One of the most entrenched, far-left marxist type places in America. PC is enforced there, by leftist political operatives posing as a business - and Arnold knows that. So pretty much the whole time he’s been “governor”, in fact he’s been on a liberal Hollywood leash.
He’s already gone back to Hollywood, except for the bothersome fact his term isn’t over yet.
Whitman’s not an actress. For whatever else she may be, she’s a brilliant, strong willed business executive.
She ran a fabulous campaign, and has made almost zero mistakes. In a word, she is competent.
It’s just possible, she’s a lot more substantial than a lot of FReepers are prepared to consider.
The problem is that Whitman and iCarly are hardly much better than the Demonrats
I beg to differ with your assessment, and your conclusions. She was not a "brilliant business executive", just ask the ebayers or look at her record with Skype or her history at FTD, or a long list of other missteps. She ran an expensive campaign but has made many mistakes. Now they won't even let her out without adult supervision.
Put that together with her total lack of civic participation (not voting, no involvement in government, etc) and I'd say she's not competent to be dog catcher. And since she has the same puppet-master handlers and backers that gave us Arnold, I'm sure she will disappoint.
like....dude, seriously....like, if we don’t get some jobs in this state soon, we’re all going to be force to move to like....Utah!
I doubt it. Arnold was never who he said he was. All you had to do is look who he was married to.
Whitman isn’t doing anything in my county...could care less, we’re all citizens.
But she sure love aliens, legal and illegal. She’s all about increasing hb-1’s.
John McCain & Meg Whitman on H-1B Visas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSfYiVKzUjw&feature=fvw
And today:
Whitman to open office in heart of Latino O.C.
http://www.ocregister.com/news/campaign-265896-whitman-office.html
[snip]SANTA ANA – Meg Whitman, trying to win over the potentially make-or-break Latino vote in her bid for governor, is preparing to open a campaign office here in the heart of Spanish-speaking Orange County.
Whitman’s campaign has leased an empty storefront in Santa Ana’s Fourth Street shopping district, long a central crossroads for the county’s Latino immigrants. The store’s windows, locked behind a padlocked gate, are already papered over with Whitman campaign posters in English and Spanish.
Whitman has worked hard to woo Latino voters since the Republican primary race, when her opponent, Steve Poizner, pulled her into a debate over illegal immigration. She has run Spanish-language campaign ads since then and touted her opposition to Arizona’s anti-illegal immigration law.
She has said that Latinos – who now account for about 22 percent of California voters – will be one of the keys to the governor’s office this November.
____
There is a CONSERVATIVE alternative to McCain’s girl.
Chelene Nightingale!
September 1,2010
Los Angeles, Ca - Sheriff Joe Arpaio, of Maricopa County, Arizona, known as “America’s Toughest Sheriff”, Former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode, and Howard Phillips, founder of the Constitution Party, are the most recent prominent Americans to endorse Chelene Nightingale for Governor of California!
Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who met with Chelene Nightingale at the Phoenix Rising Rally in June in support of the new Arizona law SB 1070, is one of the strongest opponents of illegal immigration in the nation. Both Sheriff Joe and Chelene Nightingale are recipients of the America First Award, presented by the Constitution Party’s National Veterans Coalition.
Former Congressman Virgil Goode was one of America’s strongest advocates of national and state sovereignty when he represented Virginia’s 5th District in the U.S. House of Representatives. He recently joined the national Constitution Party as a supporting member.
For more information regarding the Nightingale for Governor Campaign, please visit the website at
www.nightingaleforgovernor.com
See post # 11
There is no alternative — I was only commenting on the person’s assertions that she was brilliant, competent, ran a fabulous campaign and would somehow exceed expectations. I believe “Arnold in a Skirt” is an appropriate description.
I’ll be voting enthusiastically for Steve Cooley, Tony Strickland, and Mimi Walters. I can’t stand the candidates for the other offices, from either side of the aisle. Carly and her “use the power of government... to be more like China” crap, turns my stomach. Meg? Enough said. Damon Dunn? Seems like a nice guy but his recent conversion from lifelong Democrat is unappealing. And the tax-raising liberal turncoat Abel Maldonado? That man will never, ever get my vote for anything.
I also live here — and I’m sick to death of those on “my own team” dousing the property, lighting the match and “burning my house down around me. “
I don’t mind that she wants to woo Latino voters - I applaud that. What I despise is that she (and so many others) think the only way to earn their hearts and minds (and votes) is to cowtow to the illegal immigrant population by going soft on enforcement. Her position (and Carly’s) on H1-B Visas is also loathesome. If they can’t ship the jobs to India for cheap labor, they want to import the labor. Might as well bring back slavery. Disgusting!
Nightengale is Ron Paul people.
“Might as well bring back slavery.”
Oh, that’s being done too. There’s so much immigration news today, I can’t post it all. There are just too many greedy people these days....with NO conscience.
Thai workers describe being lured into slavery in U.S.
More than two dozen immigrants, covering their faces and continuing to fear for their safety, speak out about what authorities call the largest labor-trafficking case in U.S. history.
Seven years in the making, the case broke open last week when a federal grand jury in Honolulu indicted Mordechai Orian, the Israeli-born president of Global Horizons Manpower Inc., a Beverly Hills labor contracting firm. Five of Orian’s associates were also indicted on criminal charges of labor coercion of about 400 Thai farm workers.
As he took the lectern Wednesday, a 42-year-old farmworker described being recruited by Thai associates of Global Horizons to pick apples in Washington and pineapples in Hawaii. They promised him a 40-hour workweek with pay that amounted to more than 10 times his $100 monthly income as a struggling rice farmer in rural Thailand, he said.
But rather than finding freedom and independence, he said, he was charged an $18,000 recruiting fee and given less than half the work promised. The recruiters confiscated his passport, confined him to a wooden shack, warned him not to speak to anyone outside the farm and threatened him with violence and deportation if he tried to escape, he said.
Finally, in September 2005, he escaped under cover of darkness by running through pineapple fields, he said.
Since his escape, Lee has found work as a cook in a Thai restaurant and received a visa allowing him to stay in the U.S. as long as he cooperates with law enforcement on the case.
“I thought I would find freedom and jobs here,” he said at the news conference. “I thought the United States was a civilized nation, the highest in the world. I never imagined this kind of thing could happen here.”
________
Sir, we never imagined this kid of thing could happen here, either.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-0909-slave-labor-20100909,0,4990986.story
And Meg Whitman was a John Kerry, Al Gore, Barbara Boxer supporter. Not to mention Van Jones.
Which do you prefer?
I guess I meant “legal” slavery.
The cases you cite sound almost like kidnapping and imprisonment.
It used to be just in the sex trade. Now we’re hearing more and more
of those stories.
I agree with the concluding comment of your post:
“...I never imagined this kind of thing could happen here”
Anyone that actually believes that is either uninformed or a complete idiot.
I will agree Meg and Carly are RINOs, but the alternative is a complete whackjob left of Dennis Kucinich running the most populated state, and the most liberal, marxist-communist senator who is also an outright thief.
Whitman is running a FABULOUS commercial now - it shows Bill Clinton excoriating Moonbeam as a liberal tax-and-spend liar, pointing out his taking credit for Prop 13 tax cuts, when he was against the measure! The ad reminds California conservatives how dreadful Moonbeam would be, liberals will not want to vote for a guy that Clinton bags on, and the irony of Clinton accusing anyone of taking credit for something they didn't support is great entertainment for FReepers!
Neither I didn’t prefer Arnold either.
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